Ozon: Near-term losses fuel higher growth (stays BUY)
Following the intensified competitive landscape, as well as our higher near-term loss projections, we have reduced our 12-month price target (PT) to USD 60/share. We still rate Ozon a BUY, as we believe that higher-than-expected near-term losses are not a sign of business model weakness, but rather more aggressive investments, on the back of the significant market opportunity ahead of Ozon. We believe that the 37% share price decline from its highs, seen in February 2021, is an overreaction and a good opportunity to buy on the dip. We continue to believe that Ozon will break even in 2024E, reaching a 3.2% adjusted EBITDA margin in 2025E and 5.9% in 2030E. Ozon trades at 0.9x 2022E EV/EGMV, on our estimates, which is a 31% discount vs. its global peers.
WOOD & Company is the leading investment bank in Emerging Europe. Founded in 1991 and head-quartered in Prague, our footprint spans the region and touches investors around the globe.
A pioneer in Emerging Europe, WOOD executed many of the first CEE equity trades and landmark investment banking transactions. Our electronic trading platform was the first in the region, and remains the best. We are continually expanding our relevance and reach in these ever-evolving markets.
Our equity market share reflects our stature: 7% in Warsaw, 20% in Bucharest, 16% in Hungary, 40% in Prague and 5% in Vienna. Our distribution is unparalleled, with the largest salesforce in the region, servicing a uniquely diverse investor base.
We couple local expertise with a truly international perspective. With offices on the ground in the region, and in key financial hubs such as London and Milano, we are never far from our clients and we remain at the forefront of what’s afoot in the CEE emerging and frontier landscape.
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