reports
- Frank Maaø
Kahoot (Buy, TP: NOK26.00) - A bit of a slow start
Although growth KPIs showed indications of weakness in Q1, there are some encouraging signs. We believe user engagement trends could be starting to improve, but Kahoot needs higher-paying net adds or high-volume contracts for the low-ARPU products to achieve what. We have lowered our 2023–2025e EBITDA by 7–18%. We reiterate our BUY but have cut our target price to NOK26 (30).
- Aurore Tigerschiöld
- Douglas Lindahl
- Emil Jonsson
- Frank Maaø
- Geir Hiller Holom
- Håkon Astrup
- Helene Kvilhaug Brøndbo
- Jacob Berg Nielsen
- Jesper Ingildsen
- Johannes Grunselius
- Karl-Johan Bonnevier
- Martin Hoang Nguyen
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
- Mattias Holmberg
- Niclas Gehin
- Nicolas McBeath
- Niklas Wetterling
- Ole Martin Westgaard
- Ole-Andreas Krohn
- Patrik Ling
- Simen Aas
- Stefan Gauffin
- Steffen Evjen
- Tomi Railo
NDA DKK NORDEA BANK AB
DSV DSV PANALPINA A/S
SOBI SWEDISH ORPHAN BIOVITRUM AB
PGS PGS ASA
EPR EUROPRIS ASA
CARL B CARLSBERG A/S CLASS B
MORG SPAREBANKEN MORE
TREL B TRELLEBORG AB CLASS B
METSB METSA BOARD OYJ CLASS B
KOG KONGSBERG GRUPPEN ASA
MEDIO MEDISTIM ASA
CATE CATENA AB
RESURS RESURS HOLDING
SHOT SCANDIC HOTELS GROUP
CGCBV CARGOTEC OYJ CLASS B
SKF B SKF AB CLASS B
ESSITY B ESSITY AB CLASS B
BIOA B BIOARCTIC AB
ATCO A ATLAS COPCO AB CLASS A
VOW VOW ASA
LYKO A LYKO GROUP
NSKOG NORSKE SKOG
SINCH SINCH AB
DNB DNB ASA
VOLCARb VOLVO CARS
AUTO AUTOSTORE HLDGS LTD
HPUR HEXAGON PURUS
KOMPL KOMPLETT ASA
- Frank Maaø
- Frank Maaø
Kahoot (Buy, TP: NOK30.00) - Cashing in on continued growth
We still believe 2023 EBITDA consensus is too low and have raised our forecasts further, on a likely firmer foothold on growth KPIs and revenues in Q1, building on positive elements from Q4. Based on a 5% FCFE yield and a modest 2024e EV/EBITDA of 11.8x combined with 18–24% top-line growth for 2023–2024e, we have upgraded to BUY (HOLD) and raised our target price to NOK30 (16.50).
- Douglas Lindahl
- Frank Maaø
- Geir Hiller Holom
- Håkon Astrup
- Hanna Lindbo
- Jesper Ingildsen
- Johannes Grunselius
- Mattias Holmberg
- Miika Ihamaki
- Nicolas McBeath
- Niklas Wetterling
- Ole-Andreas Krohn
- Simen Aas
- Simen Mortensen
- Tomi Railo
WRT1V WARTSILA OYJ ABP
ABB ABB LTD.
STERV STORA ENSO OYJ CLASS R
TYRES NOKIAN RENKAAT OYJ
OSSR OSSUR HF.
PEAB B PEAB AB CLASS B
TOP TOPDANMARK A/S
AXFO AXFOOD AB
ENTRA ENTRA ASA
BGBIO BERGENBIO ASA
ALFA ALFA LAVAL AB
WIHL WIHLBORGS FASTIGHETER AB
NYF NYFOSA AB
EPRO B ELECTROLUX PROFESSIONAL
KAHOT KAHOOT
SAVE NORDNET
BOL BOLIDEN AB
BEIJ B BEIJER REF AB
- Frank Maaø
Autostore (Sell, TP: NOK18.00) - Demanding order expectations
We believe AutoStore’s order intake could disappoint materially in Q1, and that underlying order trends have been masked by FX. We point to several recent negative developments and reiterate our SELL and NOK18 target price ahead of the Q1 print later this week.
- Frank Maaø
- Håkon Astrup
- Joachim Gunell
- Johan Skoglund
- Johannes Grunselius
- Jørgen Lian
- Mattias Holmberg
- Niclas Gehin
- Ole-Andreas Krohn
- Patrik Ling
- Frank Maaø
Nokia (Hold, TP: EUR4.20) - Low valuation, stretched guidance
After a Q1 report that we consider weak, we have lowered our below-consensus EPS 14% and 5% for 2023–2024e despite support from our increased buy-back assumptions from 2024e. Without any short-term positive catalysts in sight, we reiterate our HOLD and have reduced our target price to EUR4.2 (4.7).
- Frank Maaø
Enea (Hold, TP: SEK95.00) - Underlying business still shrinking
Enea’s business momentum improved in Q4 and is set for a seemingly strong Q1e as well, thanks to a large one-off order in the legacy OS business, which we believe to be from Nokia. Apart from the ensuing pull-in boost, not much has changed recently, we believe. While we understand the pipeline is expanding, we remain on the sidelines for Enea ahead of the Q1 results but have raised our target price to SEK95 (90).
- Frank Maaø
Ericsson (Buy, TP: SEK76.00) - Inventory-driven trough in Q2e
We consider Ericsson’s Q2e profitability slump to be temporary and see a recovery in H2e as likely, along with other catalysts including more 5G patent agreements. Based on an exceptionally low valuation, we reiterate our BUY but have reduced our target price to SEK76 (80).
- Frank Maaø
- Geir Hiller Holom
- Joachim Gunell
- Jonatan Andersson
- Jørgen Lian
- Martin Arnell
- Niclas Gehin
- Ole-Andreas Krohn
- Rune Majlund Dahl
SBL SAFE BULKERS INC.
GNK GENCO SHIPPING & TRADING LTD.
GN GN STORE NORD A/S
TOM TOMRA SYSTEMS ASA
MTG B MODERN TIMES GROUP MTG AB CLASS B
SBLK STAR BULK CARRIERS CORP.
GOGLO GOLDEN OCEAN GROUP LTD
TRVX TARGOVAX AS
ENEA ENEA AB
2020 2020 BULKERS LTD
EGLE EAGLE BULK SHIPPING
VEFAB VEF
SUS SURGICAL SCIENCE SWEDEN AB
- Frank Maaø
Smartoptics (Buy, TP: NOK35.00) - Solid and more normal Q1e
We have made only minor changes to our 2023–2025 forecasts for Smartoptics, which we believe continues to build customer momentum, exploiting an inflection point for its optical networking technology. Q1 is set to be solid but more normal in terms of growth and more in line with the same period last year, following a blow-out finish to 2022. We reiterate our BUY and NOK35 target price.
- Frank Maaø
Nokia (Hold, TP: EUR4.70) - Lack of short-term triggers
We believe Nokia has a fundamentally low valuation, but do not see the short-term catalysts or a long-term growth story with the potential to change investor sentiment. A major change in capital allocation with increased dividends and buybacks could change this; a proposed new policy is positive, but buybacks are set to kick in only from 2024e. We reiterate our HOLD and have lowered our target price to EUR4.7 (5.0).
- Frank Maaø
Ericsson (Buy, TP: SEK80.00) - Time to revisit risk/reward
We have raised our revenue estimates based on an updated view on India and slightly more front-end-loaded cost reductions. Given the closing of the DPA breach case and no new findings regarding Iraq, we see a gradual reduction in the governance discount as likely. With a largely de-risked Q1 and Ericsson trading at an EV/EBITDA of 3x for 2024e, we have upgraded to BUY (HOLD) and raised our target price to SEK80 (63).
- Frank Maaø
- Ole-Andreas Krohn
- Simen Aas
- Frank Maaø
Smartoptics (Buy, TP: NOK35.00) - Right strategy, right execution
We have again raised our forecasts for Smartoptics, increasing our 2023–2025e EPS by 14–16%. As the company expands and builds a track record of execution consistency and macro resilience, we believe a limited multiples expansion is warranted. We have raised our target price to NOK35 (28) and reiterate our BUY.
- Frank Maaø
Autostore (Sell, TP: NOK18.00) - Expecting orders to soften further
We consider the Q4 report weak. Order intake and revenues came in below consensus and guidance was lowered, which was partly mitigated by faster-than-expected margin normalisation. We note that the order intake was likely considerably softer than at first glance when adjusting for the backlog-FX effect. We have lowered our revenue forecasts and reiterate our SELL and NOK18 target price.
- Frank Maaø
Autostore (Sell, TP: NOK18.00) - Soft Q4e P&L
We expect above-consensus order entry but potentially disappointing results for Q4, with retailer customers likely reluctant to flush budgets and rush project execution at this point in the business cycle – quite the opposite, we believe. We reiterate our SELL and NOK18 target price.
- Frank Maaø
Telenor (Buy, TP: NOK155.00) - Conviction reinforced
Telenor re-captured investors’ attention in Q4 with firm execution on its FCF normalisation and group simplification strategy and upbeat outlook. We believe a ‘reversal of fortunes’ scenario is the most likely for Telenor and have broadly maintained our forecasts for 2023, while raising our 2024–2025e EPS 3–5%. We reiterate our contrarian BUY case on Telenor and have raised our target price to NOK155 (150).
- Christoffer Wang Bjørnsen
- Douglas Lindahl
- Frank Maaø
- Geir Hiller Holom
- Helene Kvilhaug Brøndbo
- Johan Skoglund
- Johannes Grunselius
- Martin Hoang Nguyen
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
- Mattias Holmberg
- Ole-Andreas Krohn
- Rune Majlund Dahl
- Simen Aas
- Stefan Gauffin
- Steffen Evjen
SSAB A SSAB AB CLASS A
SCA B SVENSKA CELLULOSA AKTIEBOLAGET CLASS B
TEL TELENOR ASA
ALV AUTOLIV INC.
NOVO B NOVO NORDISK A/S CLASS B
HM B H&M HENNES & MAURITZ AB CLASS B
BILL BILLERUDKORSNAS AB
NOD NORDIC SEMICONDUCTOR ASA
HPOL B HEXPOL AB CLASS B
TELIA TELIA COMPANY AB
ELISA ELISA OYJ CLASS A
NSKOG NORSKE SKOG
NPAPER NORDIC PAPER HOLDING
GENT GENTIAN DIAGNOSTICS
GARO GARO AKTIEBOLAG
SCATC SCATEC
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