reports
- Alexander Aukner
LSG LEROY SEAFOOD GROUP ASA
AUSS AUSTEVOLL SEAFOOD ASA
AKVA AKVA GROUP ASA
SALM SALMAR ASA
GSF GRIEG SEAFOOD ASA
MOWI MOWI ASA
BAKKA BAKKAFROST P/F
SALMOCAM SALMONES CAMANCHACA SA
IFISH ICE FISH FARM AS
ASA ATLANTIC SAPPHIRE
SALME SALMON EVOLUTION HOLDING
KING THE KINGFISH COMPANY NV
AKBM AKER BIOMARINE
ISLAX ARNARLAX AS
AFISH ARCTIC FISH HOLDING AS
MAS MÅSØVAL
- Alexander Aukner
Mowi (Buy, TP: NOK235.00) - Q1 EBIT miss, but worst looks over
Mowi reported Q1 operating EBIT of EUR201m, versus our estimate of EUR234m and consensus of EUR230m, which had been lowered from ~EUR270m a few months ago. Profit warnings from peers and available market data suggested fish downgrades in Norway would be an issue, but were actually more than we expected. However, the worst seems over, and while we have cut our Q1–Q2e earnings from Norway, and 2024e EPS by 3.3%, we reiterate our BUY and NOK235 target price.
- Alexander Aukner
The Kingfish Company (Hold, TP: NOK9.00) - Higher sales and lower cape...
The Kingfish Company reported 2023 results on 11 April. The majority of Phase 2 capex has now been booked and sales are starting to materialise, paving the way for lower unit costs. Balancing supply/demand as phase-2 growth comes on-stream remains tricky short- to medium-term, triggering a strengthening of the sales force. We have made minor changes to our estimates and reiterate our HOLD and NOK9 target price.
- Alexander Aukner
Austevoll Seafood (Buy, TP: NOK108.00) - Set for Peruvian rebound
We expect Q1 EBITDA of NOK1,528m, largely in line with consensus for NOK1,496m (results due at 07:00 CET on 15 May). Ahead of the report we have increased our Q1 EBITDA estimates for Lerøy Seafood and Foodcorp. The first season quota in Peru was 2.5mt, above our estimate of 2.0mt; while some uncertainty remains for catch rates, the proportion of juvenile fish and fat content, we expect more information with the Q1 report. Nevertheless, a normalisation in Peru through 2024 is set to benefit the c...
- Alexander Aukner
LSG LEROY SEAFOOD GROUP ASA
AUSS AUSTEVOLL SEAFOOD ASA
AKVA AKVA GROUP ASA
SALM SALMAR ASA
GSF GRIEG SEAFOOD ASA
MOWI MOWI ASA
BAKKA BAKKAFROST P/F
SALMOCAM SALMONES CAMANCHACA SA
IFISH ICE FISH FARM AS
ASA ATLANTIC SAPPHIRE
SALME SALMON EVOLUTION HOLDING
KING THE KINGFISH COMPANY NV
AKBM AKER BIOMARINE
ISLAX ARNARLAX AS
AFISH ARCTIC FISH HOLDING AS
MAS MÅSØVAL
- Alexander Aukner
SalMar (Hold, TP: NOK690.00) - Q1 trading update
SalMar released its Q1 trading update on 10 April, revealing higher harvest volumes than we expected in the Central region, but lower in the North. The company also reiterated that it had been negatively affected by string jellyfish in the Northern region in Q1, hurting superior share and harvest weights more than we had previously expected. We have cut our Q1 estimates by 11% following the trading update and expect operating EBIT of NOK1,609m, 13% below consensus. The full report is due at 06:3...
- Alexander Aukner
Grieg Seafood (Buy, TP: NOK80.00) - Approaching end of spiro harvest
Grieg Seafood’s Finnmark operations have been plagued by reduced prices and high costs due to the spiro parasite in recent quarters. It guides for the last spiro fish to be harvested in Q2. We estimate Q1 operating EBIT of NOK337m (consensus NOK334m). We have cut our 2024e EPS by 17.7%, due to lower expected realised prices from the Canadian operations, as US spot prices in Q1 were below our estimates. We reiterate our BUY and NOK80 target price, as the valuation is more closely linked to capaci...
- Alexander Aukner
LSG LEROY SEAFOOD GROUP ASA
AUSS AUSTEVOLL SEAFOOD ASA
AKVA AKVA GROUP ASA
SALM SALMAR ASA
GSF GRIEG SEAFOOD ASA
MOWI MOWI ASA
BAKKA BAKKAFROST P/F
SALMOCAM SALMONES CAMANCHACA SA
IFISH ICE FISH FARM AS
ASA ATLANTIC SAPPHIRE
SALME SALMON EVOLUTION HOLDING
KING THE KINGFISH COMPANY NV
AKBM AKER BIOMARINE
ISLAX ARNARLAX AS
AFISH ARCTIC FISH HOLDING AS
MAS MÅSØVAL
- Alexander Aukner
Lerøy Seafood (Buy, TP: NOK52.00) - Better harvest mix in Q1
Lerøy Seafood’s Q1 trading update revealed harvest volumes in line with our estimates, but with a better mix on higher-than-expected volumes from Lerøy Midt and lower volumes from Lerøy Sjøtroll in Q1, while higher wild-catch volumes also contributed positively. We have raised our 2024e EPS by 1.5%, and we now expect Q1 operating EBIT of NOK880m (previously NOK752m), in line with consensus of NOK881m (full Q1 report due at 06:30 CET on 15 May). We reiterate our BUY and NOK52 target price.
- Alexander Aukner
Bakkafrost (Hold, TP: NOK590.00) - Strong Q1e coming up
We expect Q1 operating EBIT of DKK666m (8% above consensus of DKK615m), driven by higher harvest volumes, as EBIT/kg margins are broadly in line (our estimated group EBIT/kg is DKK30.8 versus consensus of DKK31.2). Faroe Islands harvested 14.3kt in Q1 and we expect solid average harvest weights, while Scotland harvested 7.3kt. We expect high superior shares in both regions. For the Fishmeal, Oil and Feed segment, we expect EBIT of DKK162m, in line with consensus of DKK164m. The Q1 report is due ...
- Alexander Aukner
Lerøy Seafood (Buy, TP: NOK52.00) - Below consensus for Q1e
We expect Q1 operating EBIT of NOK752m, 13% below consensus of NOK863m, with the difference explained by our lower harvest estimate (results due at 06:30 CET on 15 May). We have raised our Q1e Wild Catch operating EBIT due to the timing of sales, but cut 2024–2026e on lower margin assumptions. In turn, we have lowered our 2024–2026e EPS by 3.0–2.0%, but reiterate our BUY and NOK52 target price.
- Alexander Aukner
Mowi (Buy, TP: NOK235.00) - Unjustified discount to peers
We forecast Q1 operating EBIT of EUR234m, 9% below consensus of EUR258m (results due at 06:30 CET on 8 May). With a solid operating track record in Norway and rebound potential in several international farming regions, we find Mowi’s 35% discount to Bakkafrost and SalMar on a blended 12-month forward P/E unjustified. We reiterate our BUY and NOK235 target price.
- Alexander Aukner
SalMar (Hold, TP: NOK690.00) - Time for a break
SalMar has surpassed our previous target price, and we see few short-term catalysts ahead. We are 8% below consensus on Q1e EBIT on lower expected prices following a higher-than-expected share of downgrades in the quarter as well as higher costs from low volumes. We have cut our 2024–2025e EPS by 10.3–5.8% on lower expected realised prices. We have downgraded to HOLD and trimmed our target price to NOK690 (700). The Q1 results are due at 06:30 CET on 14 May.
- Alexander Aukner
LSG LEROY SEAFOOD GROUP ASA
AUSS AUSTEVOLL SEAFOOD ASA
AKVA AKVA GROUP ASA
SALM SALMAR ASA
GSF GRIEG SEAFOOD ASA
MOWI MOWI ASA
BAKKA BAKKAFROST P/F
SALMOCAM SALMONES CAMANCHACA SA
IFISH ICE FISH FARM AS
ASA ATLANTIC SAPPHIRE
SALME SALMON EVOLUTION HOLDING
KING THE KINGFISH COMPANY NV
AKBM AKER BIOMARINE
ISLAX ARNARLAX AS
AFISH ARCTIC FISH HOLDING AS
MAS MÅSØVAL
- Alexander Aukner
Salmon Evolution (Buy, TP: NOK9.90) - Production progressing as planne...
Following our site visit to the production facility in Indre Harøya on 20 March, we are reassured production is on track. The company is the largest land-based salmon farmer in Norway, with 2,200 tonnes of live weight standing biomass and accumulated harvest of 2,214 tonnes (HOG) in Q4 2023. Invested equity (IE) of NOK2.26bn means the stock is trading at 1.2x IE, below the peer group, which we find unjustified. We reiterate our BUY and NOK9.9 target price.
- Alexander Aukner
LSG LEROY SEAFOOD GROUP ASA
AUSS AUSTEVOLL SEAFOOD ASA
AKVA AKVA GROUP ASA
SALM SALMAR ASA
GSF GRIEG SEAFOOD ASA
MOWI MOWI ASA
BAKKA BAKKAFROST P/F
SALMOCAM SALMONES CAMANCHACA SA
IFISH ICE FISH FARM AS
ASA ATLANTIC SAPPHIRE
SALME SALMON EVOLUTION HOLDING
KING THE KINGFISH COMPANY NV
AKBM AKER BIOMARINE
ISLAX ARNARLAX AS
AFISH ARCTIC FISH HOLDING AS
MAS MÅSØVAL
- Alexander Aukner
The quality report
Knowing who has the best farming locations, production areas and operations is key to assessing future performance potential. Our extensive asset quality research findings suggest SalMar has the best sites, and the best MAB portfolio, while Mowi has outperformed its benchmark the most and has the most conservative estimates versus our expectations. Grieg Seafood is the most undervalued and Lerøy Seafood has the highest margin rebound potential in our view.
- Alexander Aukner
LSG LEROY SEAFOOD GROUP ASA
AUSS AUSTEVOLL SEAFOOD ASA
AKVA AKVA GROUP ASA
SALM SALMAR ASA
GSF GRIEG SEAFOOD ASA
MOWI MOWI ASA
BAKKA BAKKAFROST P/F
SALMOCAM SALMONES CAMANCHACA SA
IFISH ICE FISH FARM AS
ASA ATLANTIC SAPPHIRE
SALME SALMON EVOLUTION HOLDING
KING THE KINGFISH COMPANY NV
AKBM AKER BIOMARINE
ISLAX ARNARLAX AS
AFISH ARCTIC FISH HOLDING AS
MAS MÅSØVAL
- Alexander Aukner
LSG LEROY SEAFOOD GROUP ASA
AUSS AUSTEVOLL SEAFOOD ASA
AKVA AKVA GROUP ASA
SALM SALMAR ASA
GSF GRIEG SEAFOOD ASA
MOWI MOWI ASA
BAKKA BAKKAFROST P/F
SALMOCAM SALMONES CAMANCHACA SA
IFISH ICE FISH FARM AS
ASA ATLANTIC SAPPHIRE
SALME SALMON EVOLUTION HOLDING
KING THE KINGFISH COMPANY NV
AKBM AKER BIOMARINE
ISLAX ARNARLAX AS
AFISH ARCTIC FISH HOLDING AS
MAS MÅSØVAL
- Alexander Aukner
Atlantic Sapphire (No_rec, TP: NOK) - Recommendation and target price ...
As previously warned, the temperature issues in H2 2023 caused some fish to be sold at reduced prices, eroding the liquidity runway. With the new USD35m equity raise, cash at hand and undrawn debt, the company has USD90m available to reach a steady state, which it targets reaching in H2 2024. As DNB Markets acted as Joint Bookrunner in the recent private placement and will act as Manager in a contemplated subsequent offering of shares in Atlantic Sapphire ASA, we have withdrawn our target price ...
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