reports
- Jesper Ingildsen
Royal Unibrew (Buy, TP: DKK600.00) - Solid start to the year
We expect Royal Unibrew to have a solid start to the year from a top-line perspective, while profitably is likely to be subdued due to revaluation of inventories when it reports Q1 results (due in the afternoon on 30 April). Despite our view that organic EBIT growth in Q1e will be below the 2024 guidance, Q1 is typically a small quarter and with profitability set to pick up throughout the year, we expect the guidance to be maintained. We reiterate our BUY and DKK600 target price.
- Jesper Ingildsen
Carlsberg (Buy, TP: DKK1110.00) - Probably a good start to the year
We expect the Q1 results to show Carlsberg had a good start to the year (due at 07:30 CET on 30 April). Slightly above consensus, we forecast c2% volume growth YOY and c6% organic revenue growth. Given Q1 is seasonally a small quarter, we believe the FY guidance could be kept for now, but that it remains conservative as usual, and see room for increases during the year. We reiterate our BUY and DKK1,110 target price.
- Jesper Ingildsen
Pandora (Buy, TP: DKK1400.00) - Likely strong start to the year
Driven by strong brand momentum, increased investments and phased network expansion, we expect Pandora to have seen a strong start to the year (Q1 results due at 07:30 CET on 2 May). We forecast c15% organic growth YOY for Q1 (consensus c12%) and, as flagged by the company, a subdued EBIT margin due to investments. We continue to regard the full-year guidance as conservative (as has tended to be the case) and believe it could be updated with the results. We reiterate our BUY and DKK1,400 target ...
- Alexander Aukner
The Kingfish Company (Hold, TP: NOK9.00) - Higher sales and lower cape...
The Kingfish Company reported 2023 results on 11 April. The majority of Phase 2 capex has now been booked and sales are starting to materialise, paving the way for lower unit costs. Balancing supply/demand as phase-2 growth comes on-stream remains tricky short- to medium-term, triggering a strengthening of the sales force. We have made minor changes to our estimates and reiterate our HOLD and NOK9 target price.
- Simen Mortensen
Renovation rules now a reality
The Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD) was approved on 12 April, requiring the modernisation of existing real estate in the EU, and will soon enter the Official Journal of the EU. Member states will have two years to incorporate the provisions into their national legislation. While Q1 is Nordic construction’s low season due to winter effects, we see some downside risk to Q1e consensus and longer-term to 2024–2026e EBIT on lower development gains. We recommend a stock-picking approa...
- Alexander Aukner
Austevoll Seafood (Buy, TP: NOK108.00) - Set for Peruvian rebound
We expect Q1 EBITDA of NOK1,528m, largely in line with consensus for NOK1,496m (results due at 07:00 CET on 15 May). Ahead of the report we have increased our Q1 EBITDA estimates for Lerøy Seafood and Foodcorp. The first season quota in Peru was 2.5mt, above our estimate of 2.0mt; while some uncertainty remains for catch rates, the proportion of juvenile fish and fat content, we expect more information with the Q1 report. Nevertheless, a normalisation in Peru through 2024 is set to benefit the c...
- Simen Mortensen
Ncc (Buy, TP: SEK150.00) - Q1 was cold
With a harsh Nordic winter and Easter falling in Q1, we expect a larger seasonal loss than consensus (results due at c07:00 CET on 3 May). We expect NCC to record one commercial property divestment of SEK530m, but due the level of announced orders, we have reduced our 2024–2026e revenue and EPS and expect Q1 order intake below Infront consensus. We reiterate our BUY and NOK150 target price.
- Simen Mortensen
Skanska (Buy, TP: SEK225.00) - Solid Q1 order intake expected
With no asset divestments of Commercial Development (CD) projects, we expect Q1 group EBIT to be below Infront consensus (results due at c07:30 CET on 8 May). However, with the strong announced orders, we expect a beat on order intake. KPIs in Residential Development (RD) are likely to be weak, we believe, but up from the all-time lows last year. We reiterate our BUY and SOTP-based target price of SEK225.
- Simen Mortensen
Peab (Sell, TP: SEK58.00) - Consensus too bullish, too soon
With solid announced orders in Q1, we expect order intake above consensus, but EBIT below due to the cold Nordic winter and early Easter (results due 6 May (time TBA)). We also believe consensus is too bullish on the speed of Property Development’s recovery. We find the recent share price rally an overreaction and have downgraded to SELL (HOLD), with a raised target price of SEK58 (52), reflecting our updated estimates and peer valuation.
- Jesper Ingildsen
Embla Medical (Buy, TP: DKK39.00) - Q1 set to build momentum
We expect Embla Medical (formerly Ossur) to report another solid organic growth quarter, despite tough comparables and Easter effects. We forecast the bionics portfolio to continue to drive prosthetics growth, with more muted growth in Bracing and Support and Patient Care. While we expect the EBIT margin to expand YOY in Q1, and continue to build throughout 2024, we estimate previously taken cost savings to have less effect in the quarter. We reiterate our BUY and DKK39 target price.
- Alexander Aukner
LSG LEROY SEAFOOD GROUP ASA
AUSS AUSTEVOLL SEAFOOD ASA
AKVA AKVA GROUP ASA
SALM SALMAR ASA
GSF GRIEG SEAFOOD ASA
MOWI MOWI ASA
BAKKA BAKKAFROST P/F
SALMOCAM SALMONES CAMANCHACA SA
IFISH ICE FISH FARM AS
ASA ATLANTIC SAPPHIRE
SALME SALMON EVOLUTION HOLDING
KING THE KINGFISH COMPANY NV
AKBM AKER BIOMARINE
ISLAX ARNARLAX AS
AFISH ARCTIC FISH HOLDING AS
MAS MÅSØVAL
- Simen Mortensen
NRC Group (Buy, TP: NOK15.00) - New CEO’s plan in focus
NRC’s Q1s tend to be its low season, due to the Nordic winter effects, and we expect a seasonal loss in EBIT (results due at c07:00 CET on 25 May). However, announced order intake has been strong, including the order termination and excluding the EUR344m light rail alliance contract in Finland. In conjunction with the Q1 results, NRC is due to host a CMD, where the new CEO will present the new group strategy. We continue to see strong upside potential on an EBIT margin recovery and reiterate our...
- Alexander Aukner
SalMar (Hold, TP: NOK690.00) - Q1 trading update
SalMar released its Q1 trading update on 10 April, revealing higher harvest volumes than we expected in the Central region, but lower in the North. The company also reiterated that it had been negatively affected by string jellyfish in the Northern region in Q1, hurting superior share and harvest weights more than we had previously expected. We have cut our Q1 estimates by 11% following the trading update and expect operating EBIT of NOK1,609m, 13% below consensus. The full report is due at 06:3...
- Alexander Aukner
Grieg Seafood (Buy, TP: NOK80.00) - Approaching end of spiro harvest
Grieg Seafood’s Finnmark operations have been plagued by reduced prices and high costs due to the spiro parasite in recent quarters. It guides for the last spiro fish to be harvested in Q2. We estimate Q1 operating EBIT of NOK337m (consensus NOK334m). We have cut our 2024e EPS by 17.7%, due to lower expected realised prices from the Canadian operations, as US spot prices in Q1 were below our estimates. We reiterate our BUY and NOK80 target price, as the valuation is more closely linked to capaci...
- Simen Mortensen
Fully valued near-term
We maintain a neutral sector stance, but see near-term setbacks and consider risks tilted to the downside near-term due to strong sector performance in the past month, while market interest rates have risen. We expect two years of zero NAV growth, on average, due to yield expansion, and the sector theme to be deleveraging, with limited capex. We see few potential company-specific catalysts, leaving share prices largely driven by macro factors. We consider the sector fully valued near-term, at an...
OLT OLAV THON EIENDOMSSELSKAP ASA
BALD B FASTIGHETS AB BALDER CLASS B
CAST CASTELLUM AB
CATE CATENA AB
WALL B WALLENSTAM AB CLASS B
ATRLJ B ATRIUM LJUNGBERG AB CLASS B
KMCP KMC PROPERTIES
ENTRA ENTRA ASA
POX PANDOX AB CLASS B
SBB B SAMHALLSBYGGNADSBOLAGET I NORDEN AB CLASS B
FABG FABEGE AB
WIHL WIHLBORGS FASTIGHETER AB
CORE B COREM PROPERTY GROUP (B)
KOJAMO KOJAMO OYJ
CTY1S CITYCON OYJ
NYF NYFOSA AB
SAGAB SAGAX
AURA AURORA EIENDOM
- Alexander Aukner
LSG LEROY SEAFOOD GROUP ASA
AUSS AUSTEVOLL SEAFOOD ASA
AKVA AKVA GROUP ASA
SALM SALMAR ASA
GSF GRIEG SEAFOOD ASA
MOWI MOWI ASA
BAKKA BAKKAFROST P/F
SALMOCAM SALMONES CAMANCHACA SA
IFISH ICE FISH FARM AS
ASA ATLANTIC SAPPHIRE
SALME SALMON EVOLUTION HOLDING
KING THE KINGFISH COMPANY NV
AKBM AKER BIOMARINE
ISLAX ARNARLAX AS
AFISH ARCTIC FISH HOLDING AS
MAS MÅSØVAL
- Simen Mortensen
Vacancy uptick in Stockholm
This week, Citymark announced vacancies in the Stockholm office market are now higher than during the 2007–2008 financial crisis. Selvaag Bolig (SELL, TP NOK25) released KPIs for Q1, where unsold inventory was at an all-time high. Norwegian house prices rose 0.9% in March and 5.9% YTD. Entra announced leases. Corem announced that it aims to issue bonds. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.62% for 2024e and 4.88% for 2025e.
OLT OLAV THON EIENDOMSSELSKAP ASA
BALD B FASTIGHETS AB BALDER CLASS B
CAST CASTELLUM AB
CATE CATENA AB
WALL B WALLENSTAM AB CLASS B
ATRLJ B ATRIUM LJUNGBERG AB CLASS B
KMCP KMC PROPERTIES
ENTRA ENTRA ASA
POX PANDOX AB CLASS B
SBB B SAMHALLSBYGGNADSBOLAGET I NORDEN AB CLASS B
FABG FABEGE AB
WIHL WIHLBORGS FASTIGHETER AB
CORE B COREM PROPERTY GROUP (B)
KOJAMO KOJAMO OYJ
CTY1S CITYCON OYJ
NYF NYFOSA AB
SAGAB SAGAX
AURA AURORA EIENDOM
- Alexander Aukner
Lerøy Seafood (Buy, TP: NOK52.00) - Better harvest mix in Q1
Lerøy Seafood’s Q1 trading update revealed harvest volumes in line with our estimates, but with a better mix on higher-than-expected volumes from Lerøy Midt and lower volumes from Lerøy Sjøtroll in Q1, while higher wild-catch volumes also contributed positively. We have raised our 2024e EPS by 1.5%, and we now expect Q1 operating EBIT of NOK880m (previously NOK752m), in line with consensus of NOK881m (full Q1 report due at 06:30 CET on 15 May). We reiterate our BUY and NOK52 target price.
- Patrik Ling
Swedish Orphan Biovitrum (Buy, TP: SEK320.00) - Vonjo sales likely to ...
We forecast still-soft Vonjo sales in Q1, as we believe new patients will not fully compensate for those coming off treatment until Q2, when we expect growth to return. We are slightly below consensus for Q1e and 2024e (Q1 results due at 08:00 CET on 25 April). We reiterate our BUY and SEK320 target price.
- Patrik Ling
Vitrolife (Buy, TP: SEK230.00) - Set for a soft start to 2024
We expect Vitrolife to report a relatively soft start to 2024 (Q1 results due at 08:00 CET on 18 April). We believe Consumables and Technology continued to perform well, but that the turnaround in Genetic Services failed to materialise (with tough comparables due to the loss of some US contracts in the US late in Q1 as well as strong sales of genetic kits in Q1–Q2 last year due to stocking, which we expect to normalise this year). We are in line with consensus on 2024e adj. EBITDA but just below...
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