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Valentin Tataru
  • Valentin Tataru

Briefing Romania/Generous liquidity backdrop

Stability in the 4.8700-4.8750 range prevails for the Romanian leu. The upper bound of this range has been holding up particularly well in previous attempts to break it and we should see the same scenario again.

Valentin Tataru
  • Valentin Tataru

Growth in Bulgaria was below expectations in the third quarter

Bulgarian third-quarter GDP advanced by 4.3% compared to the previous quarter. We maintain our forecast for a 4.5% economic contraction in 2020 and revise next year downwards to +3.0%

Valentin Tataru
  • Valentin Tataru

Romania: Growth rebounds but misses estimates

The flash estimate of third quarter GDP (3Q20) showed a 5.6% expansion versus the previous quarter, below the 7.2% that the market was expecting. We maintain our 2020 GDP growth forecast at -5.5% and revise next year's growth from 5.2% to 4.1%

Valentin Tataru
  • Valentin Tataru

Romania's central bank keeps rates unchanged at 1.50%

The central bank's decision to keep rates on hold confirms our view for unchanged rates until the end of 2021. But despite having plenty of room, we believe, the central bank will try to keep its firepower intact

Valentin Tataru
  • Valentin Tataru

Briefing Romania/Softer cash rates to persist for a while

The Romanian leu remains quite stable around 4.8650. With carry rates inching below 2.00% we might see some upward pressure on the EUR/RON, but with little chance of it breaking above 4.8700 in our view.

Valentin Tataru
  • Valentin Tataru

Briefing Romania/A busy time for fixed income

The newly-found trading area around 4.8650 looks a comfort zone for the Romanian leu. Sstrong primary auctions suggest that at least part of the selling interest on the EUR/RON has something to do with bond related inflows. We expect the pair to continue to trade around current levels in upcoming days.

Valentin Tataru
  • Valentin Tataru

Romania: Robust retail sales in September bode well for strong third-q...

Romanian retail sales recovered in September advancing by 1.7% versus the previous month. While this growth was not particularly spectacular, it is enough to cement our expectations for strong third-quarter GDP

Chris Turner ... (+8)
  • Chris Turner
  • Dmitry Dolgin
  • Jakub Seidler
  • Leszek Kasek
  • Muhammet Mercan
  • Peter Virovacz
  • Rafal Benecki
  • Valentin Tataru

Green opportunities in a post-Covid world: What CEE countries should d...

Policymakers have also been presented with an unprecedented opportunity to shape the economic recovery in a more climate-friendly way. In this report, we look at the role of green agenda in stimulus across Central and Eastern Europe and examine some of the incredible opportunities and incentives on offer for a green policy response

Valentin Tataru
  • Valentin Tataru

Briefing Romania/Particularly strong demand for ROMGBs

After reaching as low as 4.8600 in the previous trading session, EUR/RON has stabilized around 4.8650, where we might see it trading for the next few days.

Valentin Tataru
  • Valentin Tataru

Briefing Romania/EUR/RON testing the lower bound

After many attempts to break above 4.8750, the pair tested the lower bound on Friday, especially after the local trading session closed. It stopped just above 4.8600 and rebounded slightly towards 4.8630, where it opens today. Given the rather large move that occurred within a short timeframe, a correction higher towards 4.8700 is possible, though we don't foresee a move above it anytime soon.

Valentin Tataru
  • Valentin Tataru

Briefing Romania/A strong euro-denominated auction

EUR/RON traded stable again as all attempts to break meaningfully above 4.8750 seem to stall. Turnover remains on the high side.

Trieu Pham ... (+2)
  • Trieu Pham
  • Valentin Tataru

ROMANI Credit/Going concern into 2021

Ahead of Moody's and Fitch rating review dates on 23 and 30 of October, respectively, as well as S&P on 4 December, we reiterate our long-held view that Romania will be able to avoid the loss of investment grade ratings (Baa3/BBB-/BBB-) in 2020. However, rating agencies will retain the negative outlook until 2H21 to assess the post-election fiscal policy agenda which will require steps beyond containing the pension hike.

Valentin Tataru
  • Valentin Tataru

Briefing Romania/Nov-2024 auction to enjoy good demand

The same pattern has held for a while now on the FX market, with increased trading volumes once the pair approaches 4.8750 and limited downside potential. For today we look for a similar pattern and the 4.8700-4.8800 range to hold.

Valentin Tataru
  • Valentin Tataru

Briefing Romania/Stable FX on increased turnover

Daily turnover remains consistently above average. The increased trading volumes around 4.8750 could be indicative of official offers protecting the leu for a while now. With that in mind, we don't expect the pair to deviate from current levels in the days to come.

Valentin Tataru
  • Valentin Tataru

Briefing Romania/Increased FX turnover

There was an intense trading session yesterday with increased turnover and apparent attempts by the pair to test higher towards 4.8800. The upside pressure came in line with regional developments, with the leu's peers (particularly the zloty and the forint) under pressure as well.

Valentin Tataru
  • Valentin Tataru

Romanian inflation below expectations: blame it on the cheap potatoes

Inflation advanced by 2.5% in September, below our 2.7% estimate and the 2.8% consensus. This is pushing lower our annual average forecast for 2020 to 2.7% and year-end to 2.1%. We maintain our call for for unchanged policy rates at least through mid-2021

Valentin Tataru
  • Valentin Tataru

Briefing Romania/Busy day in the primary market

Selling interest on the EUR/RON has intensified, but a meaningful break below 4.8700 looks difficult. Nevertheless, more tests below this level could occur. We expect a 4.8650-4.8750 trading range for this week.

Dmitry Dolgin ... (+5)
  • Dmitry Dolgin
  • Egor Fedorov
  • Trieu Pham
  • Valentin Tataru
  • Warren Patterson

CIS Credit/Bracing for a new wave of challenges

In response to the pandemic, the region's oil & gas sovereigns have diverged in their fiscal response, with more limited stimulus packages in Azerbaijan and Russia (c.4% of GDP) while Kazakhstan rolled out a larger package (9% of GDP). As we go into 2021, support will come from higher oil prices, with our base case seeing Brent at an average US$58/bbl for the year. Nonetheless, the recovery will be tepid at best as governments will focus on maintaining macro stability and the fiscal setting beco...

Valentin Tataru
  • Valentin Tataru

Briefing Romania/Steepening bias across the money market curve

Despite the increased turnover, breaking below 4.8700 is still proving difficult. The Leu's regional peers continued to perform relatively well against the single currency, hence we could see more tests rather on the downside for the EUR/RON.

Valentin Tataru
  • Valentin Tataru

Briefing Romania/Apr-2026 auction to enjoy good demand

Shrugging off the appreciation bias of its regional peers, the Romanian leu remains trapped in a very narrow range just above 4.8700. We don't expect a departure from current levels.

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