reports
- Guy Sips
- Jacob Mekhael
- Kristof Samoy
- Lynn Hautekeete
- Michiel Declercq
- Sharad Kumar S.P
- Thibault Leneeuw
- Thomas Couvreur
- Thomas Vranken
- Wim Hoste
- Wim Lewi
Dynamic Top Pick List Update April 2024: Adding TINC
We continue our KBC Securities Dynamic Top Pick List with a 50/50 cyclical/defensive selection, but with a focus on value stocks that have been left behind. Defensive segment like holdings are overweight. However, in the Benelux we have a selection of cyclical industrials at cheap valuations that have often underperformed the market. We favour Benelux value stocks as even a mild recession typically hits growth stocks proportionally harder. We notice that some stocks have been hit hard by minor s...
BEKB BEKAERT SA
ABN ABN AMRO BANK NV DEPOSITARY RECEIPTS
EVS EVS BROADCAST EQUIPMENT SA
SOLB SOLVAY SA
DIE D'IETEREN SA
SOF SOFINA SA
GIMB GIMV NV
VAN VAN DE VELDE S.A.
IBAB ION BEAM APPLICATIONS SA
ACKB ACKERMANS & VAN HAAREN NV
ARCAD ARCADIS NV
TUB FINANCIERE DE TUBIZE S.A.
CPINV CARE PROPERTY INVEST SA
TWEKA TKH GROUP N.V. CERT
TINC TINC COMM. VA
SHUR SHURGARD SELF STORAGE LIMITED
SYENS SYENSQO
- Wim Hoste
Tessenderlo Model update post FY23 results
We have lowered our FY24 and FY25 adjusted EBITDA forecasts by respectively 25% and 21% following weaker than expected FY23 results and FY24 guidance. Tessenderlo is a very diversified group with limited synergies between the various operations. Valuation is clearly attractive and we expect the strong balance sheet will prompt the board to decide on an extension of the current share buyback program, allowing the company to benefit from the low share price to catch up additional stock. We maintai...
- Hilde Van Boxstael
- Jacob Mekhael
- Kristof Samoy
- Lynn Hautekeete
- Sharad Kumar S.P
- Thibault Leneeuw
- Thomas Vranken
- Wim Hoste
- Wim Lewi
- Wim Hoste
Tessenderlo Conference call feedback
Below are the highlights from the conference call. Tessenderlo posted much weaker than expected FY23 results with adjusted EBITDA down about 32% y/y (on a proforma basis) and c 15% below our and 16% below consensus. Key shortfalls were in BioValorization and the Machines & Technologies divisions. The FY24 calls for flat adjusted EBITDA which is about 27% below our and consensus forecasts. Tessenderlo is a very diversified group with limited synergies between the various operations. We consider v...
- Jacob Mekhael
- Kristof Samoy
- Lynn Hautekeete
- Thomas Vranken
- Wim Hoste
- Wim Hoste
Tessenderlo FIRST LOOK: disappointing FY23 results and FY24 outlook
Tessenderlo posted much weaker than expected FY23 results with adjusted EBITDA down about 32% y/y (on a proforma basis) and c 15% below our and 16% below consensus. Key shortfalls were in BioValorization and the Machines & Technologies divisions. The FY24 calls for flat adjusted EBITDA which is about 27% below our and consensus forecasts. Tessenderlo is a very diversified group with limited synergies between the various operations. We consider valuation to be attractive but the poor FY23 results...
- Jacob Mekhael
- Sharad Kumar S.P
- Thibault Leneeuw
- Wim Hoste
- Hilde Van Boxstael
- Jacob Mekhael
- Kristof Samoy
- Lynn Hautekeete
- Michiel Declercq
- Thomas Couvreur
- Wim Hoste
- Wim Lewi
- Wim Hoste
Solvay Feedback conference call
Below are the highlights from the conference call. FY23 uEBITDA was roughly flat organically at 1246m which represents a minor miss (-0.6%) vs CSS, due to a lower than expected (and often lumpy) Corporate Costs line. FY24 uEBITDA guidance calls for a 10-20% organic decline vs the restated 2023 base, with consensus roughly at the midpoint of the € 925-1040m range (and KBCS close to the high end of the range). After the recent spun off of Syensqo, Solvay is a base chemicals group with leading mark...
- Guy Sips
- Thomas Vranken
- Wim Hoste
- Wim Hoste
Solvay FIRST LOOK: FY23 slight miss, FY24 guidance at midpoint in line...
FY23 uEBITDA was roughly flat organically at 1246m which represents a minor miss (-0.6%) vs CSS, due to a lower than expected (and often lumpy) Corporate Costs line. FY24 uEBITDA guidance calls for a 10-20% organic decline vs the restated 2023 base, with consensus roughly at the midpoint of the € 925-1040m range (and KBCS close to the high end of the range). After the recent spun off of Syensqo, Solvay is a base chemicals group with leading market and technology positions in the vast majority of...
- Guy Sips
- Wim Hoste
- Wim Lewi
- Wim Hoste
Syensqo FIRST LOOK: FY23 EBITDA in line with CSS, guidance below expec...
Syensqo posted a 13% drop in FY23 uEBITDA, which was bang in line with consensus and about 2% below KBCS forecasts. FY24 uEBITDA guidance of 1.4-1.55bn represents a 4-13% y/y drop and is below consensus (1565m) and even more KBCS forecasts (1644m). We will lower our forecasts. Despite the tougher short-term momentum, we still appreciate Syensqo, the specialty-focussed chemicals businesses of the former Solvay group, for its solid market positions, strong balance sheet and solid mid to long term ...
- Hilde Van Boxstael
- Michiel Declercq
- Thomas Vranken
- Wim Hoste
- Wim Lewi
- Guy Sips
- Hilde Van Boxstael
- Jacob Mekhael
- Thomas Vranken
- Wim Hoste
- Wim Lewi
- Guy Sips
- Jacob Mekhael
- Kristof Samoy
- Lynn Hautekeete
- Michiel Declercq
- Sharad Kumar S.P
- Thibault Leneeuw
- Thomas Couvreur
- Thomas Vranken
- Wim Hoste
- Wim Lewi
Dynamic Top Pick List Update March 2024 : Replacing UCB by Tubize
We replace UCB by Tubize in our KBC Securities Dynamic Top Pick List. Over the past few weeks, UCB has seen a strong rally in its share price, markedly outperforming the BEL-20 index. The rally came on the back of renewed investor confidence in its flagship product Bimzelx, which gained FDA approval for psoriasis in October 2023 albeit with unexpected warnings and precautions. In the meantime, we see that commercial traction is growing in line with our expectations, as phyicians and caregivers ...
ABN ABN AMRO BANK NV DEPOSITARY RECEIPTS
EVS EVS BROADCAST EQUIPMENT SA
SOLB SOLVAY SA
UCB UCB S.A.
DIE D'IETEREN SA
SOF SOFINA SA
GIMB GIMV NV
VAN VAN DE VELDE S.A.
IBAB ION BEAM APPLICATIONS SA
ACKB ACKERMANS & VAN HAAREN NV
ARCAD ARCADIS NV
TUB FINANCIERE DE TUBIZE S.A.
CPINV CARE PROPERTY INVEST SA
TWEKA TKH GROUP N.V. CERT
SHUR SHURGARD SELF STORAGE LIMITED
SYENS SYENSQO
- Sharad Kumar S.P
- Wim Hoste
- Wim Lewi
- Wim Hoste
Bekaert The journey continues – upgrading target price to € 58
We updated our earnings model after Bekaert delivered better than expected FY23 underlying EBIT margins, up c 80bps to 9.0%, and guided for at least stable underlying EBIT margins in 2024. We upped our uEBIT margin forecast for 2024 by about 50bps and now bank on a 9.2% uEBIT margin while incorporating further margin growth in the following years, as we expect further earnings support from further portfolio pruning and a gradually improving mix whereby more profitable segments such as Specialty ...
- Wim Hoste
Belysse 4Q23 adj. EBITDA margin recovers on raw materials & cost savin...
4Q adjusted EBITDA jumped by 36% with the adjusted EBITDA margin up by c 5 percentage points, with weak volumes being offset by lower raw materials costs and cost savings. Whilst leverage is still very high, Belysse has turned the corner on profit delivery. Valuation is attractive and prompts us to reiterate our Accumulate rating, albeit with a lowered target price of € 1.6 (down from € 2.0).
- Hilde Van Boxstael
- Jacob Mekhael
- Michiel Declercq
- Thibault Leneeuw
- Thomas Couvreur
- Wim Hoste
- Wim Lewi
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