reports
- David Szonyi
- Peter Virovacz
- Coco Zhang
- James Knightley
North America Construction Outlook: Politics and policy rates test the...
After weathering the 2023 banking stresses and ongoing high interest rate environment, 2024 and beyond is likely to be more challenging. Financing conditions remain restrictive, and political uncertainty is on the rise with US and Mexican Presidential elections. High government deficits further limit the scope for support for the sector
- Coco Zhang
- James Knightley
North America Construction Outlook: Politics and policy rates test the...
After weathering the 2023 banking stresses and ongoing high interest rate environment, 2024 and beyond is likely to be more challenging. Financing conditions remain restrictive, and political uncertainty is on the rise with US and Mexican Presidential elections. High government deficits further limit the scope for support for the sector
- Bert Colijn
Eurozone PMI signals a pickup in growth
The PMI increased from 50.3 to 51.4 in April, suggesting that the eurozone economy is finally leaving stagnation and returning to growth at the start of the second quarter. Inflationary pressures remain for the service sector but don't expect this to deter the ECB from cutting rates
- Chris Turner
- James Smith
- Michiel Tukker
Bank of England set to cut rates before the Fed as officials turn dovi...
The Bank of England is right to draw a distinction between the UK and US inflation outlook, and we expect the first rate cut to be in August or maybe even June. Sterling could come under greater pressure, but we think this is less of a concern for the BoE now than it was in 2022 or 2023
- Chris Turner
- James Smith
- Michiel Tukker
Bank of England set to cut rates before the Fed as officials turn dovi...
The Bank of England is right to draw a distinction between the UK and US inflation outlook, and we expect the first rate cut to be in August or maybe even June. Sterling could come under greater pressure, but we think this is less of a concern for the BoE now than it was in 2022 or 2023
- Chris Turner
- James Smith
- Michiel Tukker
Bank of England set to cut rates before the Fed as officials turn dovi...
The Bank of England is right to draw a distinction between the UK and US inflation outlook, and we expect the first rate cut to be in August or maybe even June. Sterling could come under greater pressure, but we think this is less of a concern for the BoE now than it was in 2022 or 2023
- Adam Antoniak
- James Knightley
- Lynn Song
- Min Joo Kang
- Muhammet Mercan
- Nicky Mapa
- Peter Virovacz
- Rob Carnell
- James Knightley
- David Szonyi
- Peter Virovacz
National Bank of Hungary Preview: Now is not the time to surprise mark...
The reducing local risk premium since the last meeting led us to believe that the pace of cuts could be maintained. However, the recent spate of unfavourable domestic and international developments justifies a more cautious approach from the NBH. We see a 50bp cut in April
- James Knightley
- Carsten Brzeski
- Francesco Pesole
A falling euro is not the ECB's biggest headache
Along with rising speculation of EUR/USD approaching parity, the old question of how the European Central Bank should react to exchange rate movements is returning. We think that the falling euro is not the ECB's biggest concern on the road to a June rate cut; other factors can lead to a further depreciation of the common currency
- Carsten Brzeski
- Francesco Pesole
A falling euro is not the ECB's biggest headache
Along with rising speculation of EUR/USD approaching parity, the old question of how the European Central Bank should react to exchange rate movements is returning. We think that the falling euro is not the ECB's biggest concern on the road to a June rate cut; other factors can lead to a further depreciation of the common currency
- James Smith
Sticky UK services inflation pushes back rate cut hopes
Services inflation is proving stickier than the Bank of England had hoped and markets are now pricing the first rate cut in November. That seems extreme given recent dovish comments from Governor Bailey but we think the latest data reduces the chances of a rate cut in May or June and we continue to expect the first move in August.
- James Smith
- James Knightley
US household spending holds firm
Remarkably strong retail sales numbers for March contradict somewhat weaker survey and credit card spending evidence, but with jobs, inflation and activity all beating expectations the Federal Reserve is in no position to carry through with interest rate cuts anytime soon
- Bert Colijn
- James Knightley
- James Smith
- Lynn Song
- Min Joo Kang
- James Smith
- Carsten Brzeski
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