reports
- Coco Zhang
- James Knightley
North America Construction Outlook: Politics and policy rates test the...
After weathering the 2023 banking stresses and ongoing high interest rate environment, 2024 and beyond is likely to be more challenging. Financing conditions remain restrictive, and political uncertainty is on the rise with US and Mexican Presidential elections. High government deficits further limit the scope for support for the sector
- Coco Zhang
- James Knightley
North America Construction Outlook: Politics and policy rates test the...
After weathering the 2023 banking stresses and ongoing high interest rate environment, 2024 and beyond is likely to be more challenging. Financing conditions remain restrictive, and political uncertainty is on the rise with US and Mexican Presidential elections. High government deficits further limit the scope for support for the sector
- Bert Colijn
Eurozone PMI signals a pickup in growth
The PMI increased from 50.3 to 51.4 in April, suggesting that the eurozone economy is finally leaving stagnation and returning to growth at the start of the second quarter. Inflationary pressures remain for the service sector but don't expect this to deter the ECB from cutting rates
- Chris Turner
- James Smith
- Michiel Tukker
Bank of England set to cut rates before the Fed as officials turn dovi...
The Bank of England is right to draw a distinction between the UK and US inflation outlook, and we expect the first rate cut to be in August or maybe even June. Sterling could come under greater pressure, but we think this is less of a concern for the BoE now than it was in 2022 or 2023
- Chris Turner
- James Smith
- Michiel Tukker
Bank of England set to cut rates before the Fed as officials turn dovi...
The Bank of England is right to draw a distinction between the UK and US inflation outlook, and we expect the first rate cut to be in August or maybe even June. Sterling could come under greater pressure, but we think this is less of a concern for the BoE now than it was in 2022 or 2023
- Chris Turner
- James Smith
- Michiel Tukker
Bank of England set to cut rates before the Fed as officials turn dovi...
The Bank of England is right to draw a distinction between the UK and US inflation outlook, and we expect the first rate cut to be in August or maybe even June. Sterling could come under greater pressure, but we think this is less of a concern for the BoE now than it was in 2022 or 2023
- Adam Antoniak
- James Knightley
- Lynn Song
- Min Joo Kang
- Muhammet Mercan
- Nicky Mapa
- Peter Virovacz
- Rob Carnell
- James Knightley
- James Knightley
- James Smith
Sticky UK services inflation pushes back rate cut hopes
Services inflation is proving stickier than the Bank of England had hoped and markets are now pricing the first rate cut in November. That seems extreme given recent dovish comments from Governor Bailey but we think the latest data reduces the chances of a rate cut in May or June and we continue to expect the first move in August.
- James Smith
- James Knightley
US household spending holds firm
Remarkably strong retail sales numbers for March contradict somewhat weaker survey and credit card spending evidence, but with jobs, inflation and activity all beating expectations the Federal Reserve is in no position to carry through with interest rate cuts anytime soon
- Bert Colijn
- James Knightley
- James Smith
- Lynn Song
- Min Joo Kang
- James Smith
- Carsten Brzeski
- Chris Turner
- Ewa Manthey
- Frantisek Taborsky
- James Knightley
- James Smith
- Lynn Song
- Min Joo Kang
- Padhraic Garvey
- CFA
- Peter Virovacz
- Rafal Benecki
- Stefan Posea
- Warren Patterson
ING Monthly: Hello, hello, hello, how low?
We're giving a nod to Nirvana this month, one of the greatest rock bands of all time. And the chorus from Smells Like Teen Spirit could certainly be answered by central banks in the coming weeks. The global economy is certainly showing signs of recovery, although we're far from that 'perfect place of peace and happiness' suggested by the name
- Francesco Pesole
- James Knightley
Bank of Canada leaves the door open to a June cut
Interest rate cut expectations have receded everywhere following the US inflation data, but there are subtle dovish incremental shifts within the BoC's commentary that suggest should inflation and unemployment continue with their current momentum then the BoC are open to a June rate cut. The Canadian dollar is facing more downside risks
- Francesco Pesole
- James Knightley
Bank of Canada leaves the door open to a June cut
Interest rate cut expectations have receded everywhere following the US inflation data, but there are subtle dovish incremental shifts within the BoC's commentary that suggest should inflation and unemployment continue with their current momentum then the BoC are open to a June rate cut. The Canadian dollar is facing more downside risks
- James Knightley
US inflation quashes the chances of a June Fed rate cut
US inflation came in at 0.4% MoM for the third consecutive month, more than double the rate we need to consistently hit to bring inflation down to 2% YoY. Expectations for a June Federal Reserve interest rate cut have collapsed with the higher for longer narrative on rates firmly in place. September is going to be the earliest opportunity for any policy easing
- Bert Colijn
ECB bank lending survey shows no immediate lending pickup
The bank lending survey for the eurozone shows continued muddling through, with credit standards easing slowly but demand for loans remaining slow. This means that investment is set to remain subdued in the months ahead and shows that tight monetary policy is still having a restrictive effect
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