reports
- Nicolas McBeath
Avanza Bank (Hold, TP: SEK257.00) - Understated activity resurgence
We expect rising stock markets and customer activity to offset much of the NII headwind from looming rate cuts, and to drive positive consensus earnings revisions for 2024–2025e. Our 2024–2026 EPS forecasts are broadly unchanged, leaving the stock trading at a 2025e P/E of c17x. With 10% upside potential to our unchanged SEK257 target price, we reiterate our HOLD.
- Patrik Ling
Arjo (Buy, TP: SEK58.00) - An in-line report
The Q1 results were fairly in line with our expectations, with the main deviation higher restructuring charges. Adjusted for this, EBIT was in line. Overall, organic growth was 4.3% YOY, in line with the full-year guidance of 3–5%. Arjo also provided an update on the Randomised Controlled Trial (RCT) for Wound Express, where data should be available in mid-2025. We reiterate our BUY, but have lowered our target price to SEK58 (60).
- Simen Mortensen
EPBD the big story this week
The Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD) was approved on 12 April, requiring the modernisation of existing real estate in the EU, and will soon enter the Official Journal of the EU. In other news, KMC Properties bought a new asset and appointed an interim CEO, JM got a new CEO, while Castellum announced a divestment and new leases, and Atrium Ljungberg kicked off Q1 reporting season. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.74% for 2024e and 5.01% for 2...
OLT OLAV THON EIENDOMSSELSKAP ASA
BALD B FASTIGHETS AB BALDER CLASS B
CAST CASTELLUM AB
CATE CATENA AB
WALL B WALLENSTAM AB CLASS B
ATRLJ B ATRIUM LJUNGBERG AB CLASS B
KMCP KMC PROPERTIES
ENTRA ENTRA ASA
POX PANDOX AB CLASS B
SBB B SAMHALLSBYGGNADSBOLAGET I NORDEN AB CLASS B
FABG FABEGE AB
WIHL WIHLBORGS FASTIGHETER AB
CORE B COREM PROPERTY GROUP (B)
KOJAMO KOJAMO OYJ
CTY1S CITYCON OYJ
NYF NYFOSA AB
SAGAB SAGAX
AURA AURORA EIENDOM
- Patrik Ling
Vitrolife (Buy, TP: SEK210.00) - Soft start to the year
Q1 earnings were softer than expected, with sales and adj. EBITDA c3% below consensus, despite the downward revisions to consensus ahead of the results. Genetics was positively affected by stocking effects in H1 2023, making for challenging comparables in Q2 as well. However, we see potential for a turnaround in Genetics in Q3. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to SEK210 (230) on revised forecasts.
- Joachim Gunell
Nokia (Hold, TP: EUR3.30) - H2e execution story
Despite an 18% underlying adj. EBIT miss, a Q1 highlight was gross-margin resilience, which in our view indicates medium-term earnings potential. For the stock to re-rate, however, we believe focus needs to move from an SOTP discussion to: 1) earnings momentum, as Nokia executes on its H2-tilted outlook; 2) balance-sheet optionality allowing larger buybacks; and/or 3) the possibility of a break-up. With our 2024–2025e broadly unchanged, we are not willing to take such a stance yet, and still see...
- Stefan Gauffin
- Niclas Gehin
Elkem (Hold, TP: NOK20.00) - Muddling through
Q1 EBITDA was largely in line with our forecast and consensus, while EPS took a hit from derivative losses. We have reduced our 2025–2026e EPS by 6% and our target price to NOK20 (22). Although the balance sheet looks fragile at a NIBD/EBITDA of 3.5x and ICR of 4.2x, we believe higher silicon prices should pull it into healthier territories from Q2. However, we have cut our 2024–2025e DPS to zero. We reiterate our HOLD as we expect the silicones market to continue to struggle with overcapacity, ...
- Mattias Holmberg
ABB (Buy, TP: SEK595.00) - Non, je ne regrette rien
CEO Björn Rosengren’s penultimate report before retiring highlighted the structural improvements made at ABB under his tenure as margins beat our expectations and consensus, and the 2024 margin guidance was raised. We have upgraded to BUY (HOLD) and raised our target price to SEK595 (520), having increased our 2024–2026e operating EBITA by 5–4%. At 15.2x 2024e EV/EBIT (10-year average 15.0x), we believe the stock deserves further re-rating as the valuation still seems to be anchored in historica...
- Nicolas McBeath
Nordea (Buy, TP: SEK169.00) - Buy in the buyback pause
The positive NII trend in Q1 underpins Nordea’s resilient NII outlook, where we forecast flat NII in 2025 versus 2023 despite lower rates. We expect the paused buybacks to resume by year-end, and accelerate in 2025, and that Nordea will still provide 10–11% in total yields for 2024–2026. We expect Nordea to retain an ROE above or around 15% for 2024–2026, and thus find the P/BV of c1.1x too low. We have raised our 2025e EPS by c2% and our target price to SEK169, and we reiterate our BUY.
- Mattias Holmberg
Volvo (Buy, TP: SEK340.00) - Beat in softer markets
The Q1 report supported our view that underlying profitability has improved structurally (now also evident in a weaker market), and that consensus will have to come up as 2024 progresses. We reiterate our BUY and have increased our target price to SEK340 (335), having raised our 2024–2026e adj. EBIT by 7–4% – we are now 8–10% above consensus.
- Stefan Gauffin
Lime Technologies (Hold, TP: SEK345.00) - Consensus reflects tough qua...
We forecast a slight slowdown in organic growth and margin dilution from the acquisition of SportAdmin ahead of the Q1 results (due at 07:50 CET on 25 April). However, we believe this is fully reflected in consensus and we are 3% above on Q1e EBITDA. We reiterate our HOLD and SEK345 target price.
- Joachim Gunell
Ericsson (Buy, TP: SEK70.00) -
Despite a delay in our mix-driven earnings and FCF rebound case, Ericsson’s Q1 gross margin showed early signs of trends we believe should accelerate through 2024 and ultimately drive Infront consensus EPS revisions closer to our full-year adj. EBITA (17% above consensus), potentially triggering a re-rating. In our view, Ericsson’s soft market outlook commentary and implicit Q2 guidance should be seen in light of its ongoing union negotiations in Sweden amid lay-offs. We reiterate our BUY and SE...
- Håkon Astrup
Tryg (Buy, TP: DKK185.00) - Continued underlying improvement
Q1 PTP was down 15% YOY to DKK1,007m (as we and consensus expected), reflecting the harsh winter weather and a high-profile claim in Sweden. However, the underlying claims ratio extended its long run of improvements, ending 0.5%-points stronger YOY. Given the ongoing premium repricing and CMD in December, we expect focus to remain on maintaining underwriting discipline, supporting continued improvements. We have made limited changes to our 2025–2026e net profit, and reiterate our BUY and DKK185 ...
- Tomi Railo
Cargotec (Buy, TP: EUR77.00) - Focus on spring news
We reiterate our BUY and EUR77 target price, with c20% upside potential, ahead of the Q1 results (due at 08:00 CET on 30 April, followed by a briefing at 09:00 CET), where we will focus on orders and profitability. We also maintain our positive case (see our “Handling it successfully” report from 21 March) prior to the Kalmar prospectus, financial targets and CMD in May.
- Joachim Gunell
HMS Networks (Buy, TP: SEK540.00) - Red(y) to roar
We have upgraded HMS Networks to BUY (SELL) and raised our target price to SEK540 (450) as: 1) we have increased our 2024–2025e adj. EPS by 5–15% and like Red Lion’s strategic fit; 2) we see investor focus shifting to improving QOQ orders; 3) restructuring programmes have historically marked an end-market trough; 4) 2025e multiples are digestible, and we see a good entry point; and 5) we expect the stock to close the gap to the PHLX semiconductor index.
- Tomi Railo
- Håkon Astrup
SpareBank 1 Helgeland (Hold, TP: NOK139.00) - Set for elevated loan lo...
With cNOK55m (58bp) of pre-announced loan losses, but prospects for solid revenue momentum, we expect a Q1 ROE of 11.0%, in line with its >11% target. With ample ~2.2%-points headroom to its capital requirement (including a 1% management buffer) at end-2023, we see scope for payout ratios of >80% over our forecast horizon. That said, with the stock trading at a 2025e P/E of ~8.7x, we continue to find a more attractive risk/reward elsewhere in the sector. We reiterate our HOLD, but have lowered o...
- Håkon Astrup
Topdanmark (Hold, TP: DKK320.00) - Weathering the storm
Despite harsh winter weather, Topdanmark reported Q1 PTP up ~1% YOY due to a strong investment result and solid underwriting. The combined ratio was 84.8%, 1.2%-points higher YOY, supported by low large claims and high run-off gains. While the underlying claims ratio was up YOY, pricing measures should continue to support improved underwriting. On somewhat increased cost control, we have raised our 2025–2026e EPS by ~1%. We reiterate our HOLD and DKK320 target price.
- Tomi Railo
Metso (Buy, TP: EUR13.00) - Possible optimism in the air
We have raised our 2024–2026e clean EPS by c2% on average ahead of Q1 results, where we will focus on orders, profitability and the outlook. We reiterate our BUY, and have raised our target price to EUR13 (12.5), continuing to view Metso’s end-market exposure, profit expansion potential and valuation as attractive.
- Simen Mortensen
Renovation rules now a reality
The Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD) was approved on 12 April, requiring the modernisation of existing real estate in the EU, and will soon enter the Official Journal of the EU. Member states will have two years to incorporate the provisions into their national legislation. While Q1 is Nordic construction’s low season due to winter effects, we see some downside risk to Q1e consensus and longer-term to 2024–2026e EBIT on lower development gains. We recommend a stock-picking approa...
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