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ABGSC Telecom Operators Research ... (+4)
  • ABGSC Telecom Operators Research
  • Oscar Rönnkvist
  • Øystein Elton Lodgaard
  • Simon Granath
ELISA-FI ELISA CORPORATION
12h / 30m 12h / 30m 1 EN
ABGSC Telecom Operators Research ... (+4)
  • ABGSC Telecom Operators Research
  • Oscar Rönnkvist
  • Øystein Elton Lodgaard
  • Simon Granath
PREMIUM
TEL2.B-SE TELE2

Re-rated, but a bit more to give

Solid Q1 across the board, acceleration in the right segments. Minor revisons on EBITDAaL, but we upgrade '26e FCF by 5%, which represents a ~9% yield and keep s us as BUYers.

23h / 18m 23h / 18m 1 EN
ABGSC Metals & Mining Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Metals & Mining Research
  • Ali Shemmari
  • Martin Melbye
04/18/24 April 18, 2024 1 EN
ABGSC Telecom Operators Research ... (+4)
  • ABGSC Telecom Operators Research
  • Oscar Rönnkvist
  • Øystein Elton Lodgaard
  • Simon Granath
04/18/24 April 18, 2024 1 EN
ABGSC Telecom Equipment Research ... (+4)
  • ABGSC Telecom Equipment Research
  • Oscar Rönnkvist
  • Øystein Elton Lodgaard
  • Simon Granath
PREMIUM
ERIC.B-SE ERICSSON

Making strides on gross margins

Encouraging margin beat, adj. EBITA 18% above cons. Small changes to FY'24e adj. EBITA, improved margins in H2e. Positive earnings trajectory ahead at 7x EV/EBITA adj. – BUY.

04/16/24 April 16, 2024 1 EN
ABGSC Telecom Operators Research ... (+4)
  • ABGSC Telecom Operators Research
  • Oscar Rönnkvist
  • Øystein Elton Lodgaard
  • Simon Granath
04/16/24 April 16, 2024 1 EN
ABGSC Telecom Equipment Research ... (+4)
  • ABGSC Telecom Equipment Research
  • Oscar Rönnkvist
  • Øystein Elton Lodgaard
  • Simon Granath
04/16/24 April 16, 2024 1 EN
ABGSC Telecom Operators Research ... (+4)
  • ABGSC Telecom Operators Research
  • Oscar Rönnkvist
  • Øystein Elton Lodgaard
  • Simon Granath
PREMIUM
TEL2.B-SE TELE2

The iliad revolution

Q1'24e: Muted adj. EBITDAaL growth well communicated. Eliminated overhang means limited hurdles for a re-rating where we argue 9% FCF yield in '26e is too cheap - BUY.

04/10/24 April 10, 2024 1 EN
ABGSC Metals & Mining Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Metals & Mining Research
  • Ali Shemmari
  • Martin Melbye
PREMIUM
ELK-NO ELKEM

Q1 likely flat, but Q2 better

Q1 EBITDA of NOK 635m, Q2 likely better. Potentially 30% more DMC supply in '24-'25. Valuation still depressed: EV/CE of 0.7x vs peers at 2.4x.

04/10/24 April 10, 2024 1 EN
ABGSC IT Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC IT Research
  • Øystein Elton Lodgaard
PREMIUM
NOD-NO Nordic Semicond...

Q1 likely to be the trough

Inventories still elevated, i.e. short-term rebound likely to be muted but the trough is near and expectations are low. 3.0x NTM EV/sales vs. historical average of 3.3x.

NOD-NO NORDIC SEMICONDUCTOR
04/10/24 April 10, 2024 1 EN
ABGSC Telecom Operators Research ... (+4)
  • ABGSC Telecom Operators Research
  • Oscar Rönnkvist
  • Øystein Elton Lodgaard
  • Simon Granath
PREMIUM
ELISA-FI Elisa Corporati...

Great entry has arrived - up to BUY

Q1'24e on 19 April: clockwork adj. EBITDA growth, up 3% y-o-y. 5G SA could support improved B2B outlook, IDS recovery nearing. '24e div. yield of 5.6%, '25e-'26e DPS and FCF CAGR >4% - BUY.

ELISA-FI ELISA CORPORATION
04/10/24 April 10, 2024 1 EN
ABGSC Telecom Operators Research ... (+4)
  • ABGSC Telecom Operators Research
  • Oscar Rönnkvist
  • Øystein Elton Lodgaard
  • Simon Granath
PREMIUM
TELIA-SE TELIA COMPANY

Baltics to drive healthy 5% EBITDA growth

Q1e LFL service revenue and adj. EBITDA up 2% and 5%. Danish sale closed, leverage down to 2.1x in Q2'24e. Relative yield not attractive enough — keep HOLD.

04/10/24 April 10, 2024 1 EN
ABGSC Telecom Equipment Research ... (+4)
  • ABGSC Telecom Equipment Research
  • Oscar Rönnkvist
  • Øystein Elton Lodgaard
  • Simon Granath
PREMIUM
ERIC.B-SE ERICSSON

Q1e will be soft, H2e looking better

We expect a weak Q1: adj. EBITA -45% y-o-y. '24e EBITA cut by 4% on lower sales assumptions. Weak H1 outlook, but maintain BUY on a better H2e.

04/10/24 April 10, 2024 1 EN
ABGSC Metals & Mining Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Metals & Mining Research
  • Bengt Jonassen
  • Martin Melbye
PREMIUM
NHY-NO HYDRO

Still a BUY

Q1'24 EBITDA of NOK 5.8bn expected, '24e EBITDA up 4%. Upstream better, lower volumes and margin pressure downstream. Reiterate BUY — TP NOK 75 (68).

04/08/24 April 8, 2024 1 EN
ABGSC IT Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC IT Research
  • Øystein Elton Lodgaard
NOD-NO NORDIC SEMICONDUCTOR
04/08/24 April 8, 2024 1 EN
ABGSC IT Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC IT Research
  • Øystein Elton Lodgaard
PREMIUM
CRAYN-NO Crayon Group Ho...

Q1 likely to be soft, but LT case intact

Easter effects likely means a weak Q1, but a reversal in Q2. Margin uplift to drive ~200% EBITA growth until '26e. BUY: 10% 2024e FCF to EV yield.

CRAYN-NO CRAYON GROUP HOLDING
04/05/24 April 5, 2024 1 EN
ABGSC Pulp & Paper Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Pulp & Paper Research
  • Ali Shemmari
  • Martin Melbye
PREMIUM
BILL-SE BILLERUD
BRG-NO BORREGAARD ... (+12)

Pulp leads the way

A long list of price increases. Q1e EBIT up q-o-q: lower maintenance costs. Smart to buy when macro is low - and to find the best players LT.

BILL-SE BILLERUD
BRG-NO BORREGAARD
ELO-NO ELOPAK
HOLM.B-SE HOLMEN
HUH1V-FI HUHTAMAKI
NPAPER-SE NORDIC PAPER
NSKOG-NO NORSKE SKOG
SCA.B-SE SCA
STERV-FI STORA ENSO
UPM-FI UPM-KYMMENE
ESSITY.B-SE ESSITY
METSB-FI METSä BOARD
04/05/24 April 5, 2024 1 EN
ABGSC Pulp & Paper Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Pulp & Paper Research
  • Ali Shemmari
  • Martin Melbye
PREMIUM
STERV-FI STORA ENSO

Go with the flow

Better momentum and market balances. Upside to our mid-cycle value of EUR 18-20/sh. Q1e clean EBIT of ~EUR 102m. BUY (Hold), TP EUR 14.5 (11.5).

04/05/24 April 5, 2024 1 EN
ABGSC Pulp & Paper Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Pulp & Paper Research
  • Ali Shemmari
  • Martin Melbye
PREMIUM
HUH1V-FI HUHTAMAKI

Current set-up more favourable for cyclicals

Huhtamaki will report its next quarterly results on 25 April. We downgrade to HOLD (Buy) with a TP of EUR 41 (44). We arrive at clean EBIT of EUR 96m for Q1'24e.

04/05/24 April 5, 2024 1 EN
ABGSC Pulp & Paper Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Pulp & Paper Research
  • Ali Shemmari
  • Martin Melbye
PREMIUM
BRG-NO BORREGAARD

Q1 preview

Borregaard will report its next quarterly results on 24 April. We reiterate BUY with a TP of NOK 205 (200). Q1'24e EBITDA of NOK 397m.

04/05/24 April 5, 2024 1 EN
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