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ABGSC Renewable Energy Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Renewable Energy Research
  • Haakon Amundsen
PREMIUM
NEL-NO NEL HYDROGEN

Underlying performance highlights challenges

Revenues 39% below cons and softer underlying EBITDA. Backlog down 14% y-o-y is not great for a growth case. In need of volumes - HOLD.

9h / 18m 9h / 18m 1 EN
ABGSC Credit Research ... (+7)
  • ABGSC Credit Research
  • Andreas Johannessen
  • Bendik Fougner Engebretsen
  • Glenn Kringhaug
  • Haakon Amundsen
  • Patrik Brattelius
  • Son Thanh Luu
PREMIUM

High Yield Bonds Daily

Lime Petroleum, Bakkegruppen

20h / 18m 20h / 18m 1 EN
ABGSC Credit Research ... (+7)
  • ABGSC Credit Research
  • Andreas Johannessen
  • Bendik Fougner Engebretsen
  • Glenn Kringhaug
  • Haakon Amundsen
  • Patrik Brattelius
  • Son Thanh Luu
PREMIUM

High Yield Bonds Daily

TF Bank, IOG, M2, EHAB, Waldorf Production, Oil

04/16/24 April 16, 2024 1 EN
ABGSC Credit Research ... (+7)
  • ABGSC Credit Research
  • Andreas Johannessen
  • Bendik Fougner Engebretsen
  • Glenn Kringhaug
  • Haakon Amundsen
  • Patrik Brattelius
  • Son Thanh Luu
04/15/24 April 15, 2024 1 EN
ABGSC Renewable Energy Research ... (+8)
  • ABGSC Renewable Energy Research
  • Adrian Gilani
  • Åsne Holsen
  • Daniel Vårdal Haugland
  • Haakon Amundsen
  • John Olaisen
  • Olof Cederholm
  • Stian Wibstad
PREMIUM
IWS-NO Integrated Wind...
BONHR-NO BONHEUR ... (+21)

Renewable Weekly – 12 April 2024

This week , we provide some insight into the marginal pricing of electricity markets in Europe, as well as calculation details and a simple calculator where investors can enter their own assumptions.

IWS-NO INTEGRATED WIND SOLUTIONS
BONHR-NO BONHEUR
NEL-NO NEL HYDROGEN
ORSTED-DK ORSTED
VWS-DK VESTAS WIND SYSTEMS
OX2-SE OX2
CADLR-NO CADELER
EOLU.B-SE EOLUS VIND
EWIND-NO EDDA WIND
ARISE-SE ARISE
SCATC-NO SCATEC
HPUR-NO HEXAGON PURUS
GREENH-DK GREEN HYDROGEN SYSTEMS
TOM-NO TOMRA
AKH-NO AKER HORIZONS
HEX-NO HEXAGON COMPOSITES
ELMRA-NO ELMERA GROUP
VOLUE-NO VOLUE
ZAP-NO ZAPTEC
ECC.B-SE ECOCLIME
BIOGAS-SE BIOKRAFT INTERNATIONAL
04/12/24 April 12, 2024 1 EN
ABGSC Credit Research ... (+7)
  • ABGSC Credit Research
  • Andreas Johannessen
  • Bendik Fougner Engebretsen
  • Glenn Kringhaug
  • Haakon Amundsen
  • Patrik Brattelius
  • Son Thanh Luu
04/12/24 April 12, 2024 1 EN
ABGSC Credit Research ... (+7)
  • ABGSC Credit Research
  • Andreas Johannessen
  • Bendik Fougner Engebretsen
  • Glenn Kringhaug
  • Haakon Amundsen
  • Patrik Brattelius
  • Son Thanh Luu
PREMIUM

High Yield Bonds Daily

KCC, Shelf Drilling, Jordanes, N0r5ke Viking, Oil

04/11/24 April 11, 2024 1 EN
ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+5)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • Haakon Amundsen
  • John Olaisen
  • Martin Mauseth
  • Stian Wibstad
PREMIUM
PRS-NO PROSAFE
SUBC-NO SUBSEA 7 ... (+24)

Q1'24 sector preview

We expect strong Q1 reports and bullish management teams. Oil price assumptions up, near-term gas price slightly down. Best risk/reward in AKRBP, VAR, IPC, TGS, ODL, DOFG and SUBC.

PRS-NO PROSAFE
SUBC-NO SUBSEA 7
TGS-NO TGS
BWE-NO BW ENERGY
BWO-NO BW OFFSHORE LIMITED
EQNR-NO EQUINOR
AKRBP-NO AKER BP
DNO-NO DNO
VAR-NO VåR ENERGI
OKEA-NO OKEA
PGS-NO PGS
AKER-NO AKER ASA
AKSO-NO AKER SOLUTIONS
AKAST-NO AKASTOR
SEAPT-NO SEACREST PETROLEO
BORR-NO BORR DRILLING LIMITED
SDRL-NO SEADRILL
PEN-NO PANORO ENERGY ASA
DOFG-NO DOF GROUP
ODL-NO ODFJELL DRILLING
ARCH-NO ARCHER LIMITED
BNOR-NO BLUENORD
IPCO-SE INTERNATIONAL PETROLEUM CORP.
NOL-NO NORTHERN OCEAN LTD.
04/11/24 April 11, 2024 1 EN
ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • Haakon Amundsen
  • John Olaisen
PREMIUM
SUBC-NO SUBSEA 7

Stronger earnings momentum from Q2e

We estimate USD 156m in Q1 EBITDA. Book-to-bill ~1x in Q1e, solid tender pipeline. Still attractive cash flow yield — BUY, TP NOK 220 (200).

04/11/24 April 11, 2024 1 EN
ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • Haakon Amundsen
PREMIUM
AKSO-NO AKER SOLUTIONS

Future AKSO starting its earnings acceleration

We model NOK 751m in Q1 EBITDA. No announced awards in the quarter, but robust backlog. Focus on capital allocation, but news unlikely - BUY, TP NOK 55.

04/11/24 April 11, 2024 1 EN
ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • Haakon Amundsen
  • Stian Wibstad
PREMIUM
BORR-NO Borr Drilling L...

Lowering expectations

Suspensions becoming effective. New day-rate assumptions at USD 120-140kpd (160-170kpd). Uncertainty persists, but utilisation could turn by early next year. BUY.

BORR-NO BORR DRILLING LIMITED
04/11/24 April 11, 2024 1 EN
ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • Haakon Amundsen
  • Stian Wibstad
PREMIUM
DOFG-NO DOF GROUP

Positive newsflow to continue

Q1e mgmt EBITDA at USD 106m. Market looks tight despite a few newbuilds. 17% FCF yield (EV), BUY.

04/11/24 April 11, 2024 1 EN
ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • Haakon Amundsen
  • Stian Wibstad
PREMIUM
NOL-NO Northern Ocean ...

All about securing contracts

Challenging '24, but market is tight and several opportunities in Q4. More exploration success in Namibia. Trading at USD 324m/rig, BUY.

NOL-NO NORTHERN OCEAN LTD.
04/11/24 April 11, 2024 1 EN
ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • Haakon Amundsen
  • Stian Wibstad
PREMIUM
ODL-NO Odfjell Drillin...

Unique NO position is paying off

High visibility, 88% '24-26e coverage + options to at least mid-2029 and significant FCF growth towards '26. 3.5-2.7x EBITDA and 19-30% FCF yield (EV) '25/'26, BUY, TP of NOK 75 (56).

ODL-NO ODFJELL DRILLING
04/11/24 April 11, 2024 1 EN
ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • Haakon Amundsen
  • Stian Wibstad
PREMIUM
SDRL-NO SEADRILL

Day rates edging higher

Day rate momentum has picked up again, and rising tender durations strengthen confidence in a lasting upcycle. 4.9-3.0x EBITDA and 13-26% '25e-'26e FCF to EV yield, BUY.

04/11/24 April 11, 2024 1 EN
ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • Haakon Amundsen
PREMIUM
PRS-NO PROSAFE

Limited backlog progress in Q1e

Improvement expected in Q1e, but low figures. Limited backlog development. The Floatel playbook works, but needs order intake. BUY.

04/11/24 April 11, 2024 1 EN
ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • Haakon Amundsen
PREMIUM
BWO-NO BW Offshore Lim...

Getting closer to derisking

We model USD 76m in Q1 EBITDA. Key Barossa building blocks soon completed. Could start to look more interesting - BUY.

BWO-NO BW OFFSHORE LIMITED
04/11/24 April 11, 2024 1 EN
ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • Haakon Amundsen
PREMIUM
AKAST-NO AKASTOR

A bit quiet

Still positive developments in the oil service industry but a bit quiet in the portfolio. Attractive discount to SOTP — BUY.

04/11/24 April 11, 2024 1 EN
ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • Haakon Amundsen
PREMIUM
AKER-NO AKER ASA

Damage control in the renewables portfolio

We estimate Q1'24 NAV of NOK 814/share. Preventing dilution in AKH by selling ACC. Current NAV NOK ~861/share at 24% discount - BUY, TP NOK 850.

04/11/24 April 11, 2024 1 EN
ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • Haakon Amundsen
PREMIUM
ARCH-NO ARCHER LIMITED

Tempting free cash flow yield

Some earnings growth y-o-y in Q1e, acceleration later on. Slight tweak to EBITDA estimates on loss of 3 Equinor rigs. >30% FCF yield to equity - BUY, TP NOK 1.5 (1.3).

04/11/24 April 11, 2024 1 EN
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