This week , we provide some insight into the marginal pricing of electricity markets in Europe, as well as calculation details and a simple calculator where investors can enter their own assumptions.
We expect strong Q1 reports and bullish management teams. Oil price assumptions up, near-term gas price slightly down. Best risk/reward in AKRBP, VAR, IPC, TGS, ODL, DOFG and SUBC.
We model NOK 751m in Q1 EBITDA. No announced awards in the quarter, but robust backlog. Focus on capital allocation, but news unlikely - BUY, TP NOK 55.
Suspensions becoming effective. New day-rate assumptions at USD 120-140kpd (160-170kpd). Uncertainty persists, but utilisation could turn by early next year. BUY.
High visibility, 88% '24-26e coverage + options to at least mid-2029 and significant FCF growth towards '26. 3.5-2.7x EBITDA and 19-30% FCF yield (EV) '25/'26, BUY, TP of NOK 75 (56).
Day rate momentum has picked up again, and rising tender durations strengthen confidence in a lasting upcycle. 4.9-3.0x EBITDA and 13-26% '25e-'26e FCF to EV yield, BUY.
Some earnings growth y-o-y in Q1e, acceleration later on. Slight tweak to EBITDA estimates on loss of 3 Equinor rigs. >30% FCF yield to equity - BUY, TP NOK 1.5 (1.3).