reports
- Anthony Dick
- Michael Foundoukidis
Michelin : March volumes weaker as expected, but not worse
>Weak March volumes data already largely flagged, April looking better - Overall, weak volumes were largely expected last month, notably because of the lower number of working days (up to 2 days less) and high comps. It has also been flagged by Continental earlier this week but the German tyre maker however added that April was looking considerably stronger. Regarding Michelin, and as we also expect some weakness in specialty, we aim for volumes down 4.2% in Q1 (vs c...
- Anthony Dick
- Michael Foundoukidis
Michelin : March volumes weaker as expected, but not worse
>Weak March volumes data already largely flagged, April looking better - Overall, weak volumes were largely expected last month, notably because of the lower number of working days (up to 2 days less) and high comps. It has also been flagged by Continental earlier this week but the German tyre maker however added that April was looking considerably stronger. Regarding Michelin, and as we also expect some weakness in specialty, we aim for volumes down 4.2% in Q1 (vs c...
- Anthony Dick
- Michael Foundoukidis
Forvia : Sometimes no news is good news
>In-line print, enough to be reassuring these days for suppliers - Forvia has reported Q1 2024 sales of € 6,531m, in line with expectations (€ 6,461m) and down 1.7% on a reported basis. This time, no drama like at the full-year release, and a release that contained no bad news and deemed reassuring (notably after Continental earlier). As expected, positive organic growth (+3.1%, an outperformance of 390bp) was more than offset by FX headwinds (-4.2%) and the slightly ...
- Anthony Dick
- Michael Foundoukidis
Forvia : Pas de nouvelle, bonne nouvelle
>Une publication en ligne, suffisant pour rassurer par les temps qui courent - Forvia a publié un CA T1 2024 de 6 531 M€, en ligne avec les attentes (6 461 M€) et en baisse de 1.7% en publié. Cette fois, pas de drame comme lors des annuels, et une publication, sans mauvaise nouvelle, jugée rassurante (notamment après Continental). Comme attendu, la croissance organique de 3.1% (surperformance de 390 pb) a été plus que compensée par les effets devises négatifs (-4.2%) ...
- Anthony Dick
- Michael Foundoukidis
Volvo AB : Sound management, but unfavourable exposure to construction...
>A solid Q1 but which confirms the normalisation in construction equipment - Yesterday morning, Volvo published a solid set of Q1 results (first take here), beating the consensus (+7% for EBIT), but in line with our estimates. Despite facing a slowdown in its underlying markets (trucks, construction equipment), embedded price effects and strict cost control enabled Volvo to post broadly stable EBIT and margins over the quarter (EBIT SEK 18.2bn, -1% y-o-y, operating m...
- Anthony Dick
- Michael Foundoukidis
Volvo AB : Gestion solide, mais une exposition Equipement de Construct...
>Un T1 solide mais qui confirme la normalisation dans l’équipement de construction - Volvo a publié hier matin des résultats T1 solides (first take ici), supérieurs aux attentes du consensus (+7% au niveau de l’EBIT), mais en ligne avec nos propres estimations. Si le groupe fait face au ralentissement de la plupart de ses marchés sous-jacents (poids lourd, construction), l’effet embarqué sur les prix et le contrôle des coûts lui ont permis d’afficher un EBIT et des m...
- Anthony Dick
- Michael Foundoukidis
Volvo AB : Q1 results highlight resilience in trucks, erosion in const...
>Q1 results beat the consensus but in line with our figures - Volvo just reported Q1 results which came above the consensus but in line with our figures. In detail, Q1 revenues was SEK 131.2bn, flat y-o-y, broadly in line with expectations (Infront consensus at SEK 129 bn, ODDO BHF SEK 132bn). Adj. EBIT was SEK 18.2bn, -2% y-o-y, i.e. a margin of 13.8% (-20bp y-o-y), ahead of consensus expectations (SEK 17.0bn) but in line with our own figures (SEK 18.1 bn). EPS was S...
- Anthony Dick
- Michael Foundoukidis
Volvo AB : Q1 results highlight resilience in trucks, erosion in const...
>Q1 results beat the consensus but in line with our figures - Volvo just reported Q1 results which came above the consensus but in line with our figures. In detail, Q1 revenues was SEK 131.2bn, flat y-o-y, broadly in line with expectations (Infront consensus at SEK 129 bn, ODDO BHF SEK 132bn). Adj. EBIT was SEK 18.2bn, -2% y-o-y, i.e. a margin of 13.8% (-20bp y-o-y), ahead of consensus expectations (SEK 17.0bn) but in line with our own figures (SEK 18.1 bn). EPS was S...
- Klaus Ringel
- Michael Foundoukidis
- Klaus Ringel
- Michael Foundoukidis
- Klaus Ringel
- Michael Foundoukidis
GRAMMER AG : Soft Q1 24 prelims, but business expected to recover thro...
>Grammer released weak preliminary KPIs for Q1 24 - Grammer surprisingly released a weak set of Q1 24 KPIs during yesterday’s trading session. Group sales are -6% y-o-y to € 557m, with the decline said to be driven by weaker demand from customers in response to the significant and continuing macroeconomic and industry-specific uncertainties, which led to lower sales vs internal expectations in EMEA and APAC in the quarter under review. Grammer’s adj. EBIT declined fro...
- Klaus Ringel
- Michael Foundoukidis
GRAMMER AG : FY 2023 results not as bad as feared and further earnings...
>Q4 2023 finally developed less bad than feared - Grammer’s FY 2023 reported group sales are +7% y-o-y to € 2.30bn (ODDO BHF: € 2.26bn) with an organic revenue growth of +10.4%. Top-line growth was driven by the regions EMEA (+7% y-o-y) and APAC (+25%), while sales in the Americas were slightly declining (-2%). In terms of customer industry, Automotive was up by 8% y-o-y and Commercial Vehicles by 4%. Grammer’s FY 2023 group adj. EBIT is +60% y-o-y to € 57m (ODDO-BHF:...
- Klaus Ringel
- Michael Foundoukidis
ElringKlinger AG : Full release of FY 2023 without major surprises and...
>FY 2023 results are in-line with the pre-released KPIs - ElringKlinger already pre-released F 2023 KPIs down to the reported EBIT line and its operating FCF two weeks ago. Today’s full release confirms these prelims: Reported group sales are +3% y-o-y to € 1.85bn with an organic growth rate of +4.6% and group adj. EBIT is up 46% y-o-y to € 100m with an adj. EBIT margin of 5.4%. FY 2023 Group reported EBIT increased from -€ 42m a year ago to € 83m in the period under ...
- Klaus Ringel
- Michael Foundoukidis
Jost-Werke AG : Full release of FY 2023 and FY 2024 guidance are in li...
>No major surprises from the full release of FY 2023 - Jost already pre-released FY2023 KPIs down to the adj. EBIT line, which were weaker than expected on the top-line but better on earnings on 20 Feb. With today’s full release of FY 2023 Jost confirms those preliminary KPIs: FY 2023 group sales are -1% y-o-y to € 1.25bn with a flat y-o-y organic growth and FY 2023 group adj. EBIT is +14% y-o-y to € 141m with an adj. EBIT margin of 11.3%. FY 2023 reported EPS is -13%...
- Klaus Ringel
- Michael Foundoukidis
NORMA Group SE : No major surprises from the full release of FY 2023 r...
>Full release of FY 2023 results looks to be in line - Norma already released preliminary KPI’s for FY 2023 down to the adj. EBIT line in mid-February and today’s full release is fully in line with the preliminary figures: Norma’s FY 2023 reported group sales were -2% y-o-y to € 1.22bn with an organic growth rate of +0.7% y-o-y. Looking at the regions organic sales growth was driven by EMEA (+5.7% y-o-y) and APAC (+4.0%), while the Americas lagged behind (-4.0%). Norm...
- Anthony Dick
- Michael Foundoukidis
Renault : Scenic, a promising first stage in the forthcoming BEV produ...
>Major strengths to counter a less dynamic European market - To mark the forthcoming launch of the Renault Scenic SUV, we attended an event organised by the group in Spain, attended by Ampère’s management (CFO, head of revenue & customer experience) and a manager from Google. Overall, this even confirmed our view that Renault has major strengths in the short term to counter the undeniably less favourable BEV momentum in Europe (see our report published last week on th...
- Anthony Dick
- Michael Foundoukidis
Renault : Scenic, premier étage prometteur de l’offensive produits à v...
>Des atouts majeurs pour contrer un marché européen moins dynamique - A l’occasion du futur lancement du SUV Renault Scenic, nous avons assisté à un évènement organisé par le groupe en Espagne en présence du management d’Ampère (CFO, responsable expérience clients) et d’une responsable de chez Google. Globalement, nous ressortons confortés dans notre opinion selon laquelle Renault dispose, via Ampère, d’atouts majeurs à court terme pour contrer un momentum BEV indénia...
- Anthony Dick
- Michael Foundoukidis
BMW : Not much new, lacking catalysts
>2023 results and 2024 guidance broadly in line with expectations - After its preliminary earnings release on 14 March, BMW reported its complete full-year results yesterday before trading, with the main new item being the 2024 guidance. For the Autos business (70% of group EBIT), the guidance was slightly better-than-expected on volumes and in line on margins. Some other items of the P&L are set to be better than expected (particularly Eliminations which restates in...
- Anthony Dick
- Michael Foundoukidis
BMW : Peu d’éléments nouveaux…et de catalyseurs
>Résultats 2023 et guidance 2024 globalement conformes aux attentes - Après la publication des résultats préliminaires le 14/03, BMW a publié hier avant Bourse ses résultats annuels complets, dont le principal nouvel élément était la guidance 2024. Sur la partie Auto (70% de l’EBIT groupe), la guidance ressort légèrement supérieure sur les volumes et en ligne sur les marges. D’autres éléments du P&L devraient être meilleurs qu’attendu (en particulier la partie Elimin...
- Anthony Dick
- Michael Foundoukidis
Volvo AB : Q1/FY2024 preview: resilience in trucks, normalisation unde...
>A more robust truck environment; scenario upgraded - Following our pre-close call with Volvo, we have updated our 2024 scenario. As a reminder, we had not revised our Volvo scenario since Q3 results, considering Q4 figures had come broadly in line (both for Q4 results and guidance, with a 2024 market scenario unchanged by the group). However, in light of recent releases from peers and the reassuring (or even confident) messages that they conveyed on 2024, we now see ...
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