reports
- Bert Colijn
- Jakub Rybacki
- Jakub Seidler
- James Knightley
- James Smith
- Muhammet Mercan
- Peter Virovacz
- Prakash Sakpal
- Valentin Tataru
- James Knightley
- Carsten Brzeski
- Chris Turner
- Iris Pang
- James Knightley
- James Smith
- Mark Cliffe
- Padhraic Garvey
- CFA
- Raoul Leering
- Rob Carnell
September Economic Update: Getting real on “no dealâ€
The real-world impact of the failure of politicians to agree on cross-border ‘deals' is becoming obvious. Financial markets don't like it, and investors are shifting into safe havens. With business confidence sagging, pressure is on for politicians to get deals done. Read more in our latest economic update
- Iris Pang
- Iris Pang
- Chris Turner
- Francesco Pesole
- Petr Krpata
- CFA
Daily FX Strategy/The end of the line for sterling
USD: Payrolls to support the greenback. The ISM reports this week provided contrasting signals about the US economy: the manufacturing sector is now hovering around recession-like levels, but the non-manufacturing gauge sent positive signals. The net impact has, however, been a still aggressive pricing for Fed monetary easing by the markets - 115bp of cuts in the price by end-2020 – and a weaker dollar. Today's release of the unemployment report may however defy part of the dovish expectation...
- Carsten Brzeski
- Antoine Bouvet
- Benjamin Schroeder
- Padhraic Garvey
- CFA
Rates Strategy Spark/The ECB giveth and the ECB taketh away
Overnight: BoJ's Kuroda said lowering rates further into negative territory “is always an optionâ€, and that long end rates had fallen too far. The long-end of the JGB curve steepened on the comments. An article in Xinhua reported a more constructive tone between the US and China highlighting the ‘verbal easing' of tensions underway from both parties.
- Iris Pang
- Nicky Mapa
- Prakash Sakpal
- Rob Carnell
- James Knightley
- James Smith
- Petr Krpata
- CFA
Brexit: Four thoughts after Westminster's wild Wednesday
A UK election now looks inevitable - the only question now is 'when'. However, the chances of a 'no deal' Brexit on 31 October appear to have receded, but there are still ways it could happen, and given the outcome of an election looks deeply uncertain, despite the Conservatives' lead in the polls, the rebound in sterling is unlikely to have legs
- Chris Turner
- Francesco Pesole
- Petr Krpata
- CFA
Daily FX Strategy/GBP rebound won't have legs
USD: Modest downside risk but market pricing for aggressive Fed easing . Following the disappointing US ISM Manufacturing, we see a modest downside risk to ISM Non-manufacturing today. Any downside surprise today is likely to be USD negative as it will help to justify the current market expectations for Fed's easing (albeit this now looks rather aggressive). Still, unless we see a more meaningful deterioration in the US consumer sector (which have so far been more immune to the trade conflict vs...
- Carsten Brzeski
- Antoine Bouvet
- Benjamin Schroeder
- Padhraic Garvey
- CFA
Rates Strategy Spark/When the tide goes out
Overnight: In the UK PM Johnson's call for snap elections failed to get the required votes, while the anti no-deal bill has advanced to the House of Lord. US-China trade talks are scheduled for October, while Asian stocks gained on signs of further PBOC stimulus.
- Iris Pang
- Nicky Mapa
- Prakash Sakpal
- Rob Carnell
- James Knightley
- James Knightley
- Rob Carnell
- James Smith
UK service sector slows further as Brexit uncertainty builds
With Brexit uncertainty causing investment to decline, service sector activity has slowed as new orders become scarce. A lot will hinge on the events today in Westminster, but the bottom line is that risk of a 'no deal' Brexit on 31 October is unlikely to fade completely after this week. This will continue to keep the pressure on underlying growth
- Chris Turner
- Francesco Pesole
- Petr Krpata
- CFA
Daily FX Strategy/GBP: Few reasons to be cheerful
While GBP has been rebounding after the UK Parliament's first successful step towards legislating against no deal Brexit yesterday, we note that the (likely) resulting early elections (the motion for this is likely to be submitted today) doesn't bode well for the pound – bar a possible short term reprieve. Not only uncertainty about the election outcome (thus various possible Brexit options) remains high, but the most probable alternatives don't appear to offer much of a respite for GBP. This ...
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