reports
- Olfa Taamallah
- Yan Derocles
easyJet : H1 2023-24 unlikely to contain any surprises
>H1 in line with expectations - EasyJet is scheduled to publish its H1 trading update on 18 April. We are expecting a pre-tax loss of £ 407m (vs -£ 411m a year previously) including a contribution of +£ 54m for Holidays. Q2 is expected to post a loss of -£ 283m, integrating good resilience from i/ passenger unit revenue growth (up 4.8%e y-o-y) and ii/unit ancillary revenues (up 5.3%e y-o-y) thanks to the contribution from the Easter weekend offset by iii/ an increase ...
- Olfa Taamallah
- Yan Derocles
easyJet : Un S1 attendu sans surprise
>Un S1 en ligne avec les attentes - EasyJet publiera son trading update pour le S1 le 18 avril. Nous attendons une perte avant taxes de 407 M£ (vs -411 M£ une année auparavant) dont une contribution de +54 M£ pour Holidays. Le T2 affichera une perte avant impôt de -283 M£ intégrant une bonne tenue i/ de la recette unitaire passager (en progression de 4.8%e yoy) et ii/ des recettes auxiliaires unitaires (en hausse de 5.3%e yoy) grâce à la contribution du WE de Pâques q...
- Nicolas David
SAP : Risk/reward incertain après la forte hausse du consensus et des ...
>Preview T1 : solide sur la topline. Plus mitigé sur les marges et le FCF - SAP publiera ses résultats T1 2024 le lundi 22 avril après Bourse, avec une conf call à 11pm CET. De nos derniers échanges avec la société nous retenons les éléments suivants : 1/ la croissance du CA devrait être solide, portée par une bonne croissance Cloud hors revenus transactionnels, convergeant vers la croissance du Current Cloud Backlog ou CCB (+27% au T4 2023), partiellement compensée p...
- Nicolas David
SAP : Uncertain risk/reward profile after sharp upward revision of con...
>Q1 preview: solid on the top line. More mixed on margins and FCF - SAP is due to report its Q1 2024 results on Monday, 22 April after the market close, with a conference call scheduled for 11 p.m. CET. The key takeaways from our most recent discussions with the company are: 1/ revenue growth is set to be solid, driven by robust Cloud growth excluding transactional revenues, converging towards Current Cloud Backlog (current cloud backlog i.e. CCB) growth (+27% in Q4 2...
- Olfa Taamallah
- Yan Derocles
MTU Aero Engines : A disappointing performance for spare parts in Q1
>A 3%e organic decline in spare parts in Q1 - MTU is due to publish its Q1 results on 30 April. We expect a somewhat sluggish start to the year, impacted by a disappointing performance in spare parts that we expect to fall by 3% y-o-y (vs full-year guidance ‘up low teens’) despite sustained utilisation, notably of the V2500 fleet (flight hours up 15% on average per month since the start of 2023, according to Cirium). We understand that this gap can be explained by t...
- Olfa Taamallah
- Yan Derocles
MTU Aero Engines : Une performance décevante sur les pièces détachées ...
>Un recul organique des pièces détachées au T1 attendu autour de 3%e - MTU publiera ses résultats du T1 le 30/04. Nous attendons un début d’année assez poussif en raison d’une performance décevante sur les pièces détachées que nous attendons en recul organique de 3% yoy (contre une guidance annuelle « up low teens ») en dépit d’une utilisation soutenue notamment de la flotte des V2500 (heures de vol en progression de 15% en moyenne par mois depuis le début de 2023 se...
- Nicolas David
Atos : Financial restructuring plan bets on ambitious operational reco...
>Towards a 50% gross debt cut but “only” € 0.6bn of new money - Atos just released this morning the framework of its financial restructuring plan, which will include:A gross debt cut of € 2.4bn or c. 50% of the current gross debt.Remaining debt maturities will be extended by 5 years.An injection of new money of € 0.6bn provided via debt and/or equity by existing stakeholders or third-party investors. Existing stakeholders and third-party investors can s...
- Nicolas David
Atos : Financial restructuring plan bets on ambitious operational reco...
>Towards a 50% gross debt cut but “only” € 0.6bn of new money - Atos just released this morning the framework of its financial restructuring plan, which will include:A gross debt cut of € 2.4bn or c. 50% of the current gross debt.Remaining debt maturities will be extended by 5 years.An injection of new money of € 0.6bn provided via debt and/or equity by existing stakeholders or third-party investors. Existing stakeholders and third-party investors can s...
- Olfa Taamallah
- Yan Derocles
Ryanair : Strong FCF generation is ramping up the return of cash to th...
>A very comfortable cash level at end-March 2024, with a share buyback announcement very likely at the full-year earnings publication - Ryanair is due to report full-year earnings to end-March 2024 on 20 May. We expect net profit at € 1.96bn for sales of € 13.4bn, giving a net margin of 14.6% (vs € 1.88bn and € 13.6bm respectively for the Visible Alpha consensus) factoring in a strong yield performance and ancillary revenues in Q4 (+12% and +3% respectively) thanks no...
- Olfa Taamallah
- Yan Derocles
Ryanair : La forte génération de FCF accélère le retour de cash à l’ac...
>Un niveau de cash très confortable à fin mars 2024 ouvrant la voie à une annonce de rachat d’actions lors de la publication des résultats annuels - Ryanair publiera ses résultats annuels à fin mars 2024 le 20/05/2024. Nous attendons un résultat net de 1.96 Md€ pour un CA de 13.4 Md€ soit une marge nette de 14.6% (vs 1.88 Md€ et 13.6 Md€ respectivement pour le consensus Visible Alpha) intégrant une bonne tenue des yields et des recettes auxiliaires sur le T4 (+12% et ...
- Fatma Agnès Hamdani
LDC : Q4 broadly in line. Volume recovery for the poultry France divis...
>Organic decline in Q4 sales of 1.5% vs -0.3%e due to more negative price effects. Volumes in the poultry France division recovered by +5.5% - LDC yesterday evening reported Q4 2023-24 sales close to our expectations. Sales were up a slight 1.6% to € 1,645.4m (vs cons. € 1,648m and ODDO BHF € 1,653m est.). Organic growth was a bit weaker at -1.5% versus -0.3% expected, reflecting bigger price decreases in poultry. Q4 sales in the poultry France division excluding...
- Olfa Taamallah
- Yan Derocles
RENK : Neutral vs Outperform – a strained valuation for a slightly wea...
>Strong visibility and momentum in order intake - RENK already has strong visibility with an order book (including frame and soft) offering the equivalent of 5 years of sales, but we think that the momentum is unlikely to waver in the coming months with the expectation of a book-to-bill above 1.4x in FY 2024, driven sharply by VMS. Many tender bids are underway in defence, notably for Italy (A2CS programme for infantry vehicles and tank purchases), the Czech Republic ...
- Olfa Taamallah
- Yan Derocles
Safran : Road show feedback – Visibility, portfolio review and share b...
>Lower growth in Leap OE deliveries: positive mix but risk to the WCR - At a road show, the company indicated that Leap OE deliveries in FY 2024 are likely to come in at the lower end of the +20% to +25% growth range due to the difficulties at Boeing. In the short term, the consequences could be positive for Safran with an accretive impact on the margin and support for the CFM56 fleet (fewer withdrawals and more flying hours). But also because delivery of the durabili...
- Fatma Agnès Hamdani
LDC : Un T4 globalement en ligne. Redressement des volumes pour le pôl...
>Décroissance organique du CA T4 de 1.5% vs -0.3%e en raison des effet prix plus négatifs. Les volumes se redressent pour le pôle volaille France de +5.5% - LDC a publié hier soir un CA T4 2023/24 proche de nos attentes. Les ventes ressortent en légère hausse de 1.6% à 1645.4 M€ (vs cons. 1648 M€ et 1653 M€e). La croissance organique est un peu plus faible à -1.5% contre -0.3% attendus, reflétant une baisse des prix plus élevée en volaille. Le CA T4 du pôle Volai...
- Olfa Taamallah
- Yan Derocles
Safran : Feedback road show – Visibilité, revue de portefeuille et rac...
>Moindre croissance des livraisons Leap neuves : mix positif mais risque sur le BFR - Lors d’un road show, la société a indiqué que les livraisons neuves de Leap en FY24 devraient ressortir proche du bas de fourchette de +20% à +25%, en raison des difficultés rencontrées par Boeing. A court terme, les conséquences pourraient être positives pour Safran avec un effet relutif sur la marge et un soutien à la flotte de CFM56 (moins de retraits et plus d’heures de vol). Mai...
- Olfa Taamallah
- Yan Derocles
RENK : Neutre vs Surperformance – une valorisation tendue pour un prof...
>Forte visibilité et prises de commandes dynamiques - Renk dispose déjà d’une forte visibilité avec un carnet de commandes (y compris frame et soft) offrant l’équivalent de 5 années de CA, mais nous pensons que la dynamique ne faiblira pas dans les prochains mois avec l’anticipation d’un book-to-bill supérieur à 1.4x en FY 24, fortement tiré par VMS. De nombreux appels d’offre sont en effet en cours dans la défense avec notamment l’Italie (programme A2CS pour les véhi...
- Olfa Taamallah
- Yan Derocles
ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 03/04/2024
La solidité de l’économie américaine et l’amélioration du sentiment macroéconomique en Europe nous conduisent à maintenir nos calls gagnants : long USA vs Europe et - en Europe - long Cycliques vs Défensives. Toujours en Europe, nous basculons long Value vs Growth et modifions en profondeur notre allocation sectorielle ; nous y intégrons également une analyse chartiste. Nos secteurs préférés sont : Banks, Financial Services, Insurance, Media, Energy, Industrial Goods & Services, Tra...
- Olfa Taamallah
- Yan Derocles
ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 04/03/2024
America’s solid economy and Europe’s improving macro sentiment have prompted us to reiterate our winning calls: long USA vs Europe and - within Europe - long Cyclicals vs Defensives. Also within Europe, we are switching to long Value vs Growth and have overhauled our sector allocation ; furthermore it nows incorporates a chart analysis. Our favourite sectors are as follows: Banks, Financial Services, Insurance, Media, Energy, Industrial Goods & Services, Travel & Leisure, Constructio...
- Olfa Taamallah
- Yan Derocles
Montana Aerospace : Nice surprise coming from FCF and confidence on 20...
>Strong FCF generation - Montana Aerospace has just released strong FY2023 results notably with regards to FCF generation which came in well above expectations. Adjusted EBITDA was reported at € 137.7m (Visible Alpha consensus was expecting € 141.2m) on sales of € 1.43bn leading to a margin of 9.6% (vs 9.8% for VA consensus and 10.3% in 2022). This performance was mainly driven by Aerostructures which reported an adjusted EBITDA of € 89.2m on sales of € 704.5m leadin...
- Olfa Taamallah
- Yan Derocles
Montana Aerospace : Nice surprise coming from FCF and confidence on 20...
>Strong FCF generation - Montana Aerospace has just released strong FY2023 results notably with regards to FCF generation which came in well above expectations. Adjusted EBITDA was reported at € 137.7m (Visible Alpha consensus was expecting € 141.2m) on sales of € 1.43bn leading to a margin of 9.6% (vs 9.8% for VA consensus and 10.3% in 2022). This performance was mainly driven by Aerostructures which reported an adjusted EBITDA of € 89.2m on sales of € 704.5m leadin...
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