reports
- Wim Hoste
Heineken Volume & pricing trends underpin resilient character
Heineken reported better than expected 1Q organic total volume trends (+4.3%). Even when stripping out easy comparatives in Nigeria & Vietnam, 1Q results show a combination of both underlying volume growth and further price/mix improvement which is in our opinion a testimony to the resilience of both Heineken and the broader beer category. FY24 guidance calling for a low to high single digit organic operating profit (beia) growth was maintained, but the CFO's comments in the conference call that...
- Guy Sips
- Sharad Kumar S.P
- Thibault Leneeuw
- Wim Hoste
- Wim Hoste
Heineken FIRST LOOK: Solid 1Q volume growth, FY guidance reiterated
Heineken reported better than expected organic volume and revenue growth in 1Q (c. 2pp above CSS) and reiterated its FY24 guidance calling for a low to high single digit organic operating profit (beia) growth, with our and consensus forecasts at respectively +5% and +7%. We expect inflation for brewers like Heineken to gradually ease going forward whilst we believe the beer category has historically demonstrated solid pricing discipline. Together with further savings potential, we expect Heineke...
- Wim Hoste
- Wim Hoste
Akzo Nobel
Below are the highlights from the conference call. We remind that 1Q adj. EBITDA jumped by 19% to 363m, which was about 4% better than our and consensus forecasts. Unsurprisingly, Akzo reiterated its FY24 guidance of €1.5-1.65bn adj. EBITDA, which represents c.10% growth at midpoint. Mid term guidance of at least 16% adjusted EBITDA margin was also reiterated and represents a 260bps increase from 2023A with our and consensus a bit below (at respectively 15.5% and 15.7%). We acknowledge the impro...
- Guy Sips
- Jacob Mekhael
- Kristof Samoy
- Michiel Declercq
- Thomas Couvreur
- Wim Hoste
- Wim Hoste
Akzo Nobel FIRST LOOK: 1Q adj EBITDA +19% or a 4% beat, FY guidance ma...
1Q adj. EBITDA jumped by 19% to 363m, which was about 4% better than our and consensus forecasts. Unsurprisingly, Akzo reiterated its FY24 guidance of € 1.5-1.65bn adj. EBITDA, which represents c.10% growth at midpoint. Mid term guidance of at least 16% adjusted EBITDA margin was also reiterated and represents a 260bps increase from 2023A with our and consensus a bit below (at respectively 15.5% and 15.7%). We acknowledge the improvement in earnings momentum and management optimism on further pr...
- Guy Sips
- Jacob Mekhael
- Kristof Samoy
- Lynn Hautekeete
- Michiel Declercq
- Sharad Kumar S.P
- Thibault Leneeuw
- Thomas Couvreur
- Thomas Vranken
- Wim Hoste
- Wim Lewi
Dynamic Top Pick List Update April 2024: Adding TINC
We continue our KBC Securities Dynamic Top Pick List with a 50/50 cyclical/defensive selection, but with a focus on value stocks that have been left behind. Defensive segment like holdings are overweight. However, in the Benelux we have a selection of cyclical industrials at cheap valuations that have often underperformed the market. We favour Benelux value stocks as even a mild recession typically hits growth stocks proportionally harder. We notice that some stocks have been hit hard by minor s...
BEKB BEKAERT SA
ABN ABN AMRO BANK NV DEPOSITARY RECEIPTS
EVS EVS BROADCAST EQUIPMENT SA
SOLB SOLVAY SA
DIE D'IETEREN SA
SOF SOFINA SA
GIMB GIMV NV
VAN VAN DE VELDE S.A.
IBAB ION BEAM APPLICATIONS SA
ACKB ACKERMANS & VAN HAAREN NV
ARCAD ARCADIS NV
TUB FINANCIERE DE TUBIZE S.A.
CPINV CARE PROPERTY INVEST SA
TWEKA TKH GROUP N.V. CERT
TINC TINC COMM. VA
SHUR SHURGARD SELF STORAGE LIMITED
SYENS SYENSQO
- Wim Hoste
Tessenderlo Model update post FY23 results
We have lowered our FY24 and FY25 adjusted EBITDA forecasts by respectively 25% and 21% following weaker than expected FY23 results and FY24 guidance. Tessenderlo is a very diversified group with limited synergies between the various operations. Valuation is clearly attractive and we expect the strong balance sheet will prompt the board to decide on an extension of the current share buyback program, allowing the company to benefit from the low share price to catch up additional stock. We maintai...
- Hilde Van Boxstael
- Jacob Mekhael
- Kristof Samoy
- Lynn Hautekeete
- Sharad Kumar S.P
- Thibault Leneeuw
- Thomas Vranken
- Wim Hoste
- Wim Lewi
- Wim Hoste
Tessenderlo Conference call feedback
Below are the highlights from the conference call. Tessenderlo posted much weaker than expected FY23 results with adjusted EBITDA down about 32% y/y (on a proforma basis) and c 15% below our and 16% below consensus. Key shortfalls were in BioValorization and the Machines & Technologies divisions. The FY24 calls for flat adjusted EBITDA which is about 27% below our and consensus forecasts. Tessenderlo is a very diversified group with limited synergies between the various operations. We consider v...
- Jacob Mekhael
- Kristof Samoy
- Lynn Hautekeete
- Thomas Vranken
- Wim Hoste
- Wim Hoste
Tessenderlo FIRST LOOK: disappointing FY23 results and FY24 outlook
Tessenderlo posted much weaker than expected FY23 results with adjusted EBITDA down about 32% y/y (on a proforma basis) and c 15% below our and 16% below consensus. Key shortfalls were in BioValorization and the Machines & Technologies divisions. The FY24 calls for flat adjusted EBITDA which is about 27% below our and consensus forecasts. Tessenderlo is a very diversified group with limited synergies between the various operations. We consider valuation to be attractive but the poor FY23 results...
- Jacob Mekhael
- Sharad Kumar S.P
- Thibault Leneeuw
- Wim Hoste
- Hilde Van Boxstael
- Jacob Mekhael
- Kristof Samoy
- Lynn Hautekeete
- Michiel Declercq
- Thomas Couvreur
- Wim Hoste
- Wim Lewi
- Wim Hoste
Solvay Feedback conference call
Below are the highlights from the conference call. FY23 uEBITDA was roughly flat organically at 1246m which represents a minor miss (-0.6%) vs CSS, due to a lower than expected (and often lumpy) Corporate Costs line. FY24 uEBITDA guidance calls for a 10-20% organic decline vs the restated 2023 base, with consensus roughly at the midpoint of the € 925-1040m range (and KBCS close to the high end of the range). After the recent spun off of Syensqo, Solvay is a base chemicals group with leading mark...
- Guy Sips
- Thomas Vranken
- Wim Hoste
- Wim Hoste
Solvay FIRST LOOK: FY23 slight miss, FY24 guidance at midpoint in line...
FY23 uEBITDA was roughly flat organically at 1246m which represents a minor miss (-0.6%) vs CSS, due to a lower than expected (and often lumpy) Corporate Costs line. FY24 uEBITDA guidance calls for a 10-20% organic decline vs the restated 2023 base, with consensus roughly at the midpoint of the € 925-1040m range (and KBCS close to the high end of the range). After the recent spun off of Syensqo, Solvay is a base chemicals group with leading market and technology positions in the vast majority of...
- Guy Sips
- Wim Hoste
- Wim Lewi
- Wim Hoste
Syensqo FIRST LOOK: FY23 EBITDA in line with CSS, guidance below expec...
Syensqo posted a 13% drop in FY23 uEBITDA, which was bang in line with consensus and about 2% below KBCS forecasts. FY24 uEBITDA guidance of 1.4-1.55bn represents a 4-13% y/y drop and is below consensus (1565m) and even more KBCS forecasts (1644m). We will lower our forecasts. Despite the tougher short-term momentum, we still appreciate Syensqo, the specialty-focussed chemicals businesses of the former Solvay group, for its solid market positions, strong balance sheet and solid mid to long term ...
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