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Matthias Desmarais
  • Matthias Desmarais
Matthias Desmarais
  • Matthias Desmarais
Emmanuel Matot
  • Emmanuel Matot

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 28/03/2024

Hormis les Etats-Unis, les marchés de la construction devraient continuer à reculer en 2024 (-2% en Europe) avant de rebondir à la faveur d’une baisse des taux. Dans ce contexte, la différenciation entre les groupes se fera essentiellement sur leur capacité de résistance (mix géographique et prix/ coûts), l’allocation du capital (et situations spéciales) et leur valorisation. Face à cet environnement, nous relevons nos recommandations sur KONE (la modernisation comme relais de la Chin...

Emmanuel Matot
  • Emmanuel Matot

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 03/28/2024

With the exception of the US, construction markets should continue to shrink in 2024 (-2% in Europe) before rebounding on the back of lower interest rates. Against this backdrop, groups will be differentiated mainly on the basis of their resilience (geographical and price/cost mix), capital allocation (and special situations) and valuation. In this context, we are upgrading our recommendations on KONE (modernisation as an alternative source of growth to China) and Holcim (a substantia...

Emmanuel Matot
  • Emmanuel Matot

Soitec : Another warning, RF-SOI destocking still underway

>No sales growth expected in the upcoming FY 2025 - Soitec confirmed yesterday evening that it will reach its guidance targets for FY 2024 (year to end-March) which it had revised downwards in early February. Sales should therefore fall by around 10% organically and the EBITDA margin by around 1 point to 34%. The bad news concerns the flat sales performance expected this coming FY 2025, implying a level that is well below expectations (ODDO BHF = +13% and FactSet...

Emmanuel Matot
  • Emmanuel Matot

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 28/03/2024

Hormis les Etats-Unis, les marchés de la construction devraient continuer à reculer en 2024 (-2% en Europe) avant de rebondir à la faveur d’une baisse des taux. Dans ce contexte, la différenciation entre les groupes se fera essentiellement sur leur capacité de résistance (mix géographique et prix/ coûts), l’allocation du capital (et situations spéciales) et leur valorisation. Face à cet environnement, nous relevons nos recommandations sur KONE (la modernisation comme relais de la Chin...

Maissa Keskes ... (+2)
  • Maissa Keskes
  • Stephane Houri

Jenoptik AG : 2024 to be a year of transition before a recovery in 202...

>Neutral rating maintained; target price downgraded to € 32 from € 33 - Following the release of the 2023 annual results, we are lowering our target price to € 32 from € 33. 2024 will be a year of transition for Jenoptik due to a sharper-than-expected market slowdown. H1 is set to be the low point before an improvement in H2 and beyond, driven mainly by the semiconductor equipment market. Despite this weakness, the group has reiterated its 2025 targets and remains con...

Ahmed Ben Salem
  • Ahmed Ben Salem

ENI SpA : ENI in talks with Ithaca Energy to merge their UK upstream a...

>Eni in exclusive talks with Ithaca to merge its UK upstream assets - Ithaca Energy entered into exclusive talks with Eni for four weeks to acquire its upstream assets in the UK. It is intended that Eni will receive in exchange of these assets new Ithaca Energy shares to be issued. Eni is expected to hold between 38% and 39% of the enlarged share capital of Ithaca Energy following completion of the transaction. As a reminder Ithaca, which is listed in the UK has cur...

Ahmed Ben Salem
  • Ahmed Ben Salem

ENI SpA : ENI in talks with Ithaca Energy to merge their UK upstream a...

>Eni in exclusive talks with Ithaca to merge its UK upstream assets - Ithaca Energy entered into exclusive talks with Eni for four weeks to acquire its upstream assets in the UK. It is intended that Eni will receive in exchange of these assets new Ithaca Energy shares to be issued. Eni is expected to hold between 38% and 39% of the enlarged share capital of Ithaca Energy following completion of the transaction. As a reminder Ithaca, which is listed in the UK has cur...

Klaus Ringel ... (+2)
  • Klaus Ringel
  • Michael Foundoukidis

ElringKlinger AG : Full release of FY 2023 without major surprises and...

>FY 2023 results are in-line with the pre-released KPIs - ElringKlinger already pre-released F 2023 KPIs down to the reported EBIT line and its operating FCF two weeks ago. Today’s full release confirms these prelims: Reported group sales are +3% y-o-y to € 1.85bn with an organic growth rate of +4.6% and group adj. EBIT is up 46% y-o-y to € 100m with an adj. EBIT margin of 5.4%. FY 2023 Group reported EBIT increased from -€ 42m a year ago to € 83m in the period under ...

Emmanuel Matot
  • Emmanuel Matot

Soitec : Nouveau warning, toujours des déstockages RF-SOI

>Pas de croissance du CA attendue pour le prochain exercice FY 25 - Soitec a confirmé hier soir la réalisation de ses guidances pour l’exercice FY 24 (clôture à fin mars) qui avaient été revues en baisse début février. Le CA devrait bien baisser d’environ 10% en organique avec une marge EBITDA en retrait de près de 1 point à 34%. La mauvaise nouvelle porte sur la stabilité du CA visée pour le prochain exercice FY 25, un niveau nettement en deçà des attentes (ODDO...

Maissa Keskes ... (+2)
  • Maissa Keskes
  • Stephane Houri

SÜSS Micro Tec SE : 2024 guidance better than expected and growth set ...

>Underperform rating, TP raised to € 28 (vs € 18) - Suss MicroTec’s share price fell by 3% yesterday even though the EBIT guidance it announced for 2024 is 10% above expectations. Given its recent stock run (+40% YTD) and the positive signals surrounding demand for HBM memory, the market had probably already priced in a lot of positive newsflow. The profit-taking was also possibly triggered by the group’s lack of strong operating leverage (flat margin vs 2022). The ea...

Maissa Keskes ... (+2)
  • Maissa Keskes
  • Stephane Houri

SÜSS Micro Tec SE : Guidance 2024 meilleure qu’attendu, poursuite de l...

>Opinion Sous-performance, OC relevé à 28 € (vs 18 €) - Le titre Suss MicroTec était en baisse de 3% hier malgré une guidance 2024 10% au-dessus des attentes sur l’EBIT. Compte tenu du parcours boursier récent (+40% YTD) et des signaux positifs concernant la demande pour la mémoire HBM, le marché avait déjà probablement anticipé un nombre important de bonnes nouvelles. L’absence de fort levier opérationnel (marge stable vs 2022) a aussi potentiellement contribué à ces...

Maissa Keskes ... (+2)
  • Maissa Keskes
  • Stephane Houri

Jenoptik AG : 2024 sera une année de transition avant une reprise en 2...

>Opinion Neutre maintenue, OC abaissé à 32 € vs 33 € - Suite à la publication des résultats annuels 2023, nous abaissons notre OC à 32 € vs 33 €. 2024 sera une année de transition pour Jenoptik en raison d’un ralentissement du marché plus fort que prévu. Le S1 devrait être probablement le point bas avant une amélioration au S2 et au-delà tirée principalement par le marché des équipementiers semiconducteurs. Malgré cette faiblesse, le groupe a réitéré ses objectifs 202...

Benoit Valleaux ... (+2)
  • Benoit Valleaux
  • Steven Gould

Millennium BCP : The Fosun overhang should not obscure the appealing i...

>Outperform rating confirmed – target price raised to € 0.43 (vs € 0.41) - The Q4/full-year 2023 results confirmed our fundamentally positive approach on BCP, which as a reminder is based on a significant recovery on the underlying operating and profitability fronts in the short to medium term, as well as a notably strengthening of solvency (and ultimately the related prospect of a notable improvement in shareholder returns). The relative pause in the share re-rating ...

Chaima Ferrandon ... (+3)
  • Chaima Ferrandon
  • Delphine Brault
  • Sven Edelfelt

ODDO : Focus on Construction: a bitter present (2024), a sweeter futur...

With the exception of the US, construction markets should continue to shrink in 2024 (-2% in Europe) before rebounding on the back of lower interest rates. Against this backdrop, groups will be differentiated mainly on the basis of their resilience (geographical and price/cost mix), capital allocation (and special situations) and valuation. In this context, we are upgrading our recommendations on KONE (modernisation as an alternative source of growth to China) and Holcim (a subst...

Benoit Valleaux ... (+2)
  • Benoit Valleaux
  • Steven Gould

Millennium BCP : L’overhang Fosun ne doit pas occulter l’attractivité ...

>Opinion Surperformance confortée – OC porté à 0.43 € (vs 0.41 €) - Les résultats T4/annuels 2023 sont venus conforter notre approche fondamentalement positive sur BCP, reposant pour rappel sur le redressement significatif de l’opérationnel underlying et de la rentabilité à CMT ainsi que le renforcement notable de la solvabilité (et in fine la perspective associée d’amélioration notable du retour à l’actionnaire). La relative pause observée depuis notre dernier point ...

Chaima Ferrandon ... (+3)
  • Chaima Ferrandon
  • Delphine Brault
  • Sven Edelfelt

ODDO : Focus construction : un présent amer (2024), un futur plus doux...

Hormis les Etats-Unis, les marchés de la construction devraient continuer à reculer en 2024 (-2% en Europe) avant de rebondir à la faveur d’une baisse des taux. Dans ce contexte, la différenciation entre les groupes se fera essentiellement sur leur capacité de résistance (mix géographique et prix/ coûts), l’allocation du capital (et situations spéciales) et leur valorisation. Face à cet environnement, nous relevons nos recommandations sur KONE (la modernisation comme relais de la...

Chaima Ferrandon ... (+3)
  • Chaima Ferrandon
  • Delphine Brault
  • Sven Edelfelt

ODDO : Focus on Construction: a bitter present (2024), a sweeter futur...

With the exception of the US, construction markets should continue to shrink in 2024 (-2% in Europe) before rebounding on the back of lower interest rates. Against this backdrop, groups will be differentiated mainly on the basis of their resilience (geographical and price/cost mix), capital allocation (and special situations) and valuation. In this context, we are upgrading our recommendations on KONE (modernisation as an alternative source of growth to China) and Holcim (a subst...

Chaima Ferrandon ... (+2)
  • Chaima Ferrandon
  • Sven Edelfelt

CRH : A star already in orbit

>Superb performance and stock widely owned - Based on the stock’s exceptional performance and the consensus in evidence, we think it offers lower outperformance potential in the medium term. We nonetheless remain convinced of the exceptional nature of the equity story in view of the entry into the American S&P TMI index or the Russell 1000, which could lead to another surge. There is no rush, but the most enlightened investors are likely to have already begun to reduc...

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