reports
- Arnaud Autier
- Pierre Tegner
Campari : Preview T1 24e : de nouveaux ajustements à la baisse
>Sous-performance maintenue et OC abaissé à 8.6 € vs 9.6 € auparavant - Nous maintenons notre opinion à Sous-performance sur Campari. L’ajustement baissier continue sur les BPA expliquant la performance du titre sur ces derniers mois. En cause d’abord, la hausse des frais financiers du fait de l’acquisition de Courvoisier dont l’intégration constitue un facteur d’incertitudes à court terme. Ensuite, le MOP sous pression en FY 24e alors que celle-ci est toujours en deç...
- Arnaud Autier
- Pierre Tegner
Campari : Q1 24 preview: fresh downward adjustments
>Underperform rating maintained and target price cut to € 8.6 from € 9.6 - We maintain our Underperform rating on Campari. The ongoing EPS downgrades account for the stock’s performance in recent months. The main culprit is higher interest expense with the acquisition of Courvoisier, its integration being a source of uncertainty in the short term. Also, operating margins will be under pressure in FY 24e, bearing in mind the latter is still short of its pre-Covid level...
- Chaima Ferrandon
- Sven Edelfelt
Sika : Start of the year in line
>Q1 2024 sales in line with forecasts - Q1 2024 sales came in at CHF 2.648bn (+0.2% l-f-l and +13.8% in real terms), in line with the consensus (CHF 2.636bn est.) and 3% ahead of our expectations (CHF 2.567bn). We expected a slightly lower contribution from MBCC at 17.3% vs 19.9% reported. L-f-l growth came in at 0.2% after 0.8% in Q4, +1.3% in Q3 and +0.3% in Q2. The working days effect was negative to the tune of -1.5% in Q1. In the EMEA division, Middle East/A...
- Chaima Ferrandon
- Sven Edelfelt
Sika : Un début d’année conforme
>CA T1 2024 en ligne avec les attentes - Le CA du T1 2024 ressort à 2 648 MCHF (+0.2% à pcc et +13.8% en réel), en ligne avec le consensus (2 636 MdCHFe) et 3% au-dessus de nos attentes (2 567 MCHF). Nous attendions une contribution de MBCC légèrement moindre à 17.3% contre 19.9% publiés. La croissance à pcc ressort à 0.2% après 0.8% au T4, +1.3% au T3 et +0.3% au T2. Rappelons que le nombre de jours ouvrés ressort négatif à -1.5% au T1. Dans la branche EMEA, les...
- Maissa Keskes
- Stephane Houri
Ericsson : Better than expected margins in Q1 with few one-time elemen...
>Q1 2024 results > expectations thanks to Networks (IPR contract) and a one off - This morning, Ericsson reported Q1 2024 results that were above expectations thanks to a better-than-expected margin in Networks (44.3% vs 40.6%) notably linked to an IPR contract signed with some retroactivity of SEK3.1bn and a one-time gain of SEK 1.9bn. Revenues were SEK 53.3bn, below the consensus of SEK 54.7bn, down 15% organically. The adjusted gross margin was 42.7%, above the con...
- Maissa Keskes
- Stephane Houri
Ericsson : Better than expected margins in Q1 with few one-time elemen...
>Q1 2024 results > expectations thanks to Networks (IPR contract) and a one off - This morning, Ericsson reported Q1 2024 results that were above expectations thanks to a better-than-expected margin in Networks (44.3% vs 40.6%) notably linked to an IPR contract signed with some retroactivity of SEK3.1bn and a one-time gain of SEK 1.9bn. Revenues were SEK 53.3bn, below the consensus of SEK 54.7bn, down 15% organically. The adjusted gross margin was 42.7%, above the con...
- Nicolas David
SAP : Risk/reward incertain après la forte hausse du consensus et des ...
>Preview T1 : solide sur la topline. Plus mitigé sur les marges et le FCF - SAP publiera ses résultats T1 2024 le lundi 22 avril après Bourse, avec une conf call à 11pm CET. De nos derniers échanges avec la société nous retenons les éléments suivants : 1/ la croissance du CA devrait être solide, portée par une bonne croissance Cloud hors revenus transactionnels, convergeant vers la croissance du Current Cloud Backlog ou CCB (+27% au T4 2023), partiellement compensée p...
- Baptiste Salaville
- Johanna Jourdain
ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 04/15/2024 Date Performance sin...
The logistics market is our preferred real estate segment, where the coming growth remains undervalued. We prefer the high growth stock within this segment, CTP. We also have Outperform recommendations on Argan, Montea and VGP. We believe WDP is fully valued, though. - ...
- Baptiste Salaville
- Johanna Jourdain
ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 15/04/2024 Date Performance dep...
The logistics market is our preferred real estate segment, where the coming growth remains undervalued. We prefer the high growth stock within this segment, CTP. We also have Outperform recommendations on Argan, Montea and VGP. We believe WDP is fully valued, though. - ...
- Nicolas David
SAP : Uncertain risk/reward profile after sharp upward revision of con...
>Q1 preview: solid on the top line. More mixed on margins and FCF - SAP is due to report its Q1 2024 results on Monday, 22 April after the market close, with a conference call scheduled for 11 p.m. CET. The key takeaways from our most recent discussions with the company are: 1/ revenue growth is set to be solid, driven by robust Cloud growth excluding transactional revenues, converging towards Current Cloud Backlog (current cloud backlog i.e. CCB) growth (+27% in Q4 2...
- Baptiste Salaville
- Johanna Jourdain
PLUXEE : What to expect from the H1 2023-24 publication? (19 April bef...
>Solid organic growth anticipated for H1 2023-24, including a sequential improvement in Q2 - Pluxee is due to publish its H1 2023-24 results on 19 April before trading (period between September 2023 to February 2024). We forecast revenue of € 577m (1% above the consensus at € 573m), up 18.4% on a reported basis, of which total organic growth of +19.7%, above the consensus forecast of 18.3%. More specifically, we anticipate a solid organic increase in operational reven...
- Johanna Jourdain
Sodexo : What to expect from the H1 2024 publication? (19 April before...
>H1 2024 results: we forecast organic and margin growth at the high end of the full-year guidance range - On 19 April before market open, Sodexo is due, for the first time, to publish its results for H1 2024 as a stand-alone following the spin-off of Pluxee at the beginning of February. We forecast sales of € 11,941m in H1, i.e. total sales growth of +3.1% which includes organic growth of 7.7%, an unfavourable forex effect of -3% and a negative scope effect of -1.5% (...
- Baptiste Salaville
- Johanna Jourdain
PLUXEE : Qu’attendre de la publication S1 24 ? (le 19/04 avant Bourse)
>Solide croissance organique attendue au S1 24, dont une accélération séquentielle au T2 - Pluxee publiera ses résultats S1 24 le 19/04 avant Bourse (période septembre 2023 à février 2024). Nous attendons un CA de 577 M€ (1% au-dessus du consensus à 573 M€), en croissance publiée de 18.4%, dont une croissance organique totale de 19.7%, au-dessus du consensus à 18.3%. Plus particulièrement, nous anticipons une solide croissance organique du CA opérationnel au S1, à +14...
- Johanna Jourdain
Sodexo : Qu’attendre de la publication S1 24 ? (Le 19/04 avant Bourse)
>Résultats S1 24 : nous attendons la croissance organique et la progression de marge dans le haut de fourchette de la guidance FY - Sodexo publiera pour la première ses résultats S1 24 fois en stand alone le 19 avril avant Bourse, après le spin-off de Pluxee début février. Nous attendons un CA de 11 941 M€ au S1, soit une croissance totale de 3.1% qui intègre une croissance organique de 7.7%, un effet changes défavorable de -3% et un effet périmètre négatif de -1.5% (...
- Martin Marandon-Carlhian
- Stephane Houri
ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 04/12/2024
We have upgraded our rating on Ørsted to Outperform from Neutral, with a target price lifted to DKK 480 from DKK 400. Future projects are showing a much more attractive return on investment than in the past. At the same time, particular attention is being paid to a healthier financial equation and a review of project execution. Among the renewable energy players, Ørsted seems more likely than its peers to outperform, even if the fall in interest rates takes a little longer to material...
- Florent Laroche-Joubert
- Gerardo Ibanez
Shurgard : Lok’nStore : un grand pas en avant dans l’exécution de la s...
>Lok’nStore : son acquisition va permettre à Shurgard de doubler sa taille au RU - Shurgard a annoncé hier matin avant Bourse, l’acquisition de Lok’nStore pour un coût total estimé à 613 M€ vs une politique MT d’investissements de 200 M€ par an :Lok’nStore est un acteur majeur au Royaume-Uni (RU) et 9e opérateur européen de self-stockage qui gère aujourd’hui les opérations de 43 sites et détient un pipeline de 9 actifs, tous situés au RU dans le Grand Londres, le...
- Florent Laroche-Joubert
- Gerardo Ibanez
Shurgard : Lok’nStore: a major step in the execution of the group’s gr...
>Lok’nStore: acquisition should enable Shurgard to double its size in the UK - Yesterday morning before trading, Shurgard announced the acquisition of Lok’nStore for a total estimated cost of € 613m vs a medium-term investment policy of € 200m per annum:Lok’nStore is a major player in the UK and is ninth-ranked European operator in self-storage, currently operating 43 sites and with a pipeline of 9 assets, all located in the UK in Greater London, the south east o...
- Martin Marandon-Carlhian
- Stephane Houri
ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 12/04/2024
Nous relevons notre opinion sur Ørsted à Surperformance contre Neutre précédemment avec un OC porté à 480 DKK contre 400 DKK. Les futurs projets affichent des retours sur investissement beaucoup plus attractifs que par le passé. En parallèle une attention particulière est portée sur l’équation financière plus saine et une remise à plat de l’exécution des projets. Parmi les acteurs du renouvelable, Ørsted semble le plus à même de surperformer même si la baisse des taux d’intérêt devait...
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