>Q1 in the end more in line with traditional seasonality - In a group pre-class call, the company indicated the seasonal pattern would in the end be fairly consistent with that of previous years, with Q4 potentially accounting for around 35% of FY 24 sales. The deferral of around € 0.4bn of sales from FY 23 to FY 24 will be only partially delivered in Q1 (c € 0.1bn est.), with the remainder of the truck deliveries expected more later in the year. We forecast sales of ...
>Solid pricing which should continue over the summer - The publication of H1 results which topped expectations, with an operating loss limited to between £ 340m and £360m, compared with a consensus expectation of -£ 407m, is explained by tight control of costs and above all by solid pricing. In Q2, easyJet posted an 8.5% increase in passenger RPS y-o-y and a 7.5% increase in ancillary unit revenues y-o-y. This performance was due notably to the contribution made by t...
>Un pricing solide qui devrait se poursuivre sur l’été - La publication d’un S1 au-delà des attentes avec une perte opérationnelle limitée entre 340 et 360 M£ contre une attente du consensus à -407M£ s’explique par une bonne tenue des coûts mais surtout par un pricing solide. Sur le T2, easyJet a affiché un RPS passager en hausse de 8.5% yoy et une progression des recettes unitaires auxiliaires de 7.5% yoy. Cette performance est liée notamment à la contribution du WE...
>Un T1 finalement plus conforme à la traditionnelle saisonnalité - Lors d’un pre-close call groupé, la société a indiqué que la saisonnalité de l’exercice FY 24 serait finalement assez conforme à celle des autres années avec un T4 pouvant représenter de l’ordre de 35% du CA FY 24. Le décalage d’environ 0.4 Md€ de ventes de FY 23 à FY 24 ne sera que partiellement livré au T1 (c0.1 Md€e), le reliquat des livraisons de camions étant plutôt attendu plus tard dans l’exerci...
>A better-than-expected H1 performance - easyJet (Outperform, target price 670p) has just released a good trading update for H1 to end-March 2024 with a headline loss before tax expected to be £ 340-360m. We and the consensus complied by the company had been expecting a loss of £ 407m.This good performance comes on the back of i/ revenue per seat up 5% y-o-y (+3.3% on our estimate), ii/ cost per seat excluding fuel flat y-o-y in line with guidance (+0.8%e) and ii...
>A better-than-expected H1 performance - easyJet (Outperform, target price 670p) has just released a good trading update for H1 to end-March 2024 with a headline loss before tax expected to be £ 340-360m. We and the consensus complied by the company had been expecting a loss of £ 407m.This good performance comes on the back of i/ revenue per seat up 5% y-o-y (+3.3% on our estimate), ii/ cost per seat excluding fuel flat y-o-y in line with guidance (+0.8%e) and ii...
>Traffic growth continues in March, with International assets outperforming - ADP published its traffic figures for March yesterday, with total number of passengers at Paris reaching 8.0 million: +7.7% y-o-y or -8.1% vs 2019. Paris-CDG reported traffic growth of 6.6% y-o-y, reaching 90.5% of the 2019, a bit shy of our expectations. On the contrary, Paris-Orly reported traffic growth of +10.1% (-4.8% vs 2019), which was a positive after the weak data of previous month...
>H1 in line with expectations - EasyJet is scheduled to publish its H1 trading update on 18 April. We are expecting a pre-tax loss of £ 407m (vs -£ 411m a year previously) including a contribution of +£ 54m for Holidays. Q2 is expected to post a loss of -£ 283m, integrating good resilience from i/ passenger unit revenue growth (up 4.8%e y-o-y) and ii/unit ancillary revenues (up 5.3%e y-o-y) thanks to the contribution from the Easter weekend offset by iii/ an increase ...
>Un S1 en ligne avec les attentes - EasyJet publiera son trading update pour le S1 le 18 avril. Nous attendons une perte avant taxes de 407 M£ (vs -411 M£ une année auparavant) dont une contribution de +54 M£ pour Holidays. Le T2 affichera une perte avant impôt de -283 M£ intégrant une bonne tenue i/ de la recette unitaire passager (en progression de 4.8%e yoy) et ii/ des recettes auxiliaires unitaires (en hausse de 5.3%e yoy) grâce à la contribution du WE de Pâques q...
>A 3%e organic decline in spare parts in Q1 - MTU is due to publish its Q1 results on 30 April. We expect a somewhat sluggish start to the year, impacted by a disappointing performance in spare parts that we expect to fall by 3% y-o-y (vs full-year guidance ‘up low teens’) despite sustained utilisation, notably of the V2500 fleet (flight hours up 15% on average per month since the start of 2023, according to Cirium). We understand that this gap can be explained by t...
>Un recul organique des pièces détachées au T1 attendu autour de 3%e - MTU publiera ses résultats du T1 le 30/04. Nous attendons un début d’année assez poussif en raison d’une performance décevante sur les pièces détachées que nous attendons en recul organique de 3% yoy (contre une guidance annuelle « up low teens ») en dépit d’une utilisation soutenue notamment de la flotte des V2500 (heures de vol en progression de 15% en moyenne par mois depuis le début de 2023 se...
>A very comfortable cash level at end-March 2024, with a share buyback announcement very likely at the full-year earnings publication - Ryanair is due to report full-year earnings to end-March 2024 on 20 May. We expect net profit at € 1.96bn for sales of € 13.4bn, giving a net margin of 14.6% (vs € 1.88bn and € 13.6bm respectively for the Visible Alpha consensus) factoring in a strong yield performance and ancillary revenues in Q4 (+12% and +3% respectively) thanks no...
>Un niveau de cash très confortable à fin mars 2024 ouvrant la voie à une annonce de rachat d’actions lors de la publication des résultats annuels - Ryanair publiera ses résultats annuels à fin mars 2024 le 20/05/2024. Nous attendons un résultat net de 1.96 Md€ pour un CA de 13.4 Md€ soit une marge nette de 14.6% (vs 1.88 Md€ et 13.6 Md€ respectivement pour le consensus Visible Alpha) intégrant une bonne tenue des yields et des recettes auxiliaires sur le T4 (+12% et ...
>Strong visibility and momentum in order intake - RENK already has strong visibility with an order book (including frame and soft) offering the equivalent of 5 years of sales, but we think that the momentum is unlikely to waver in the coming months with the expectation of a book-to-bill above 1.4x in FY 2024, driven sharply by VMS. Many tender bids are underway in defence, notably for Italy (A2CS programme for infantry vehicles and tank purchases), the Czech Republic ...
>Lower growth in Leap OE deliveries: positive mix but risk to the WCR - At a road show, the company indicated that Leap OE deliveries in FY 2024 are likely to come in at the lower end of the +20% to +25% growth range due to the difficulties at Boeing. In the short term, the consequences could be positive for Safran with an accretive impact on the margin and support for the CFM56 fleet (fewer withdrawals and more flying hours). But also because delivery of the durabili...
>Moindre croissance des livraisons Leap neuves : mix positif mais risque sur le BFR - Lors d’un road show, la société a indiqué que les livraisons neuves de Leap en FY24 devraient ressortir proche du bas de fourchette de +20% à +25%, en raison des difficultés rencontrées par Boeing. A court terme, les conséquences pourraient être positives pour Safran avec un effet relutif sur la marge et un soutien à la flotte de CFM56 (moins de retraits et plus d’heures de vol). Mai...
>Forte visibilité et prises de commandes dynamiques - Renk dispose déjà d’une forte visibilité avec un carnet de commandes (y compris frame et soft) offrant l’équivalent de 5 années de CA, mais nous pensons que la dynamique ne faiblira pas dans les prochains mois avec l’anticipation d’un book-to-bill supérieur à 1.4x en FY 24, fortement tiré par VMS. De nombreux appels d’offre sont en effet en cours dans la défense avec notamment l’Italie (programme A2CS pour les véhi...
La solidité de l’économie américaine et l’amélioration du sentiment macroéconomique en Europe nous conduisent à maintenir nos calls gagnants : long USA vs Europe et - en Europe - long Cycliques vs Défensives. Toujours en Europe, nous basculons long Value vs Growth et modifions en profondeur notre allocation sectorielle ; nous y intégrons également une analyse chartiste. Nos secteurs préférés sont : Banks, Financial Services, Insurance, Media, Energy, Industrial Goods & Services, Tra...
America’s solid economy and Europe’s improving macro sentiment have prompted us to reiterate our winning calls: long USA vs Europe and - within Europe - long Cyclicals vs Defensives. Also within Europe, we are switching to long Value vs Growth and have overhauled our sector allocation ; furthermore it nows incorporates a chart analysis. Our favourite sectors are as follows: Banks, Financial Services, Insurance, Media, Energy, Industrial Goods & Services, Travel & Leisure, Constructio...
>Strong FCF generation - Montana Aerospace has just released strong FY2023 results notably with regards to FCF generation which came in well above expectations. Adjusted EBITDA was reported at € 137.7m (Visible Alpha consensus was expecting € 141.2m) on sales of € 1.43bn leading to a margin of 9.6% (vs 9.8% for VA consensus and 10.3% in 2022). This performance was mainly driven by Aerostructures which reported an adjusted EBITDA of € 89.2m on sales of € 704.5m leadin...
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