In this report, we have summarised what we read from consumer companies’ 2023 results, the 2024 outlook and recent updates. We think companies: a) with overseas expansion or turnaround prospects, b) that have upside potential of improving operating efficiency, c) that will benefit from near-term catalysts (eg event-driven), and d) have increasing dividend payout will outperform. Anta, CR Beer, CTGDF, Galaxy, Haidilao, Haier, Midea and Shenzhou are our most preferred stocks. Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
2023 results were in line with consensus despite missing on top-line. Revenue resumed growth in 4Q23, and management is optimistic on the order growth momentum in 2024. Production utilisation rate has been back to 100% in 1Q24 and overseas production efficiency has also improved, which will support Shenzhou’s margin expansion, in our view. Maintain BUY and fine-tune target price by 1% to HK$93.60.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results Anta (2020 HK/BUY/HK$83.55/Target: HK$109.60) 2023: Results beat on margin; on track to fulfil three-year targets. China Overseas Property Holdings (2669 HK/BUY/HK$4.50/Target: HK$5.60) 2023: Weaker-than-expected results; development targets revised. CR Land (1109 HK/BUY/HK$24.85/Target: HK$42.39) 2023: Results in line; clearer growth path ahead. CR Mixc (1209 HK/BUY/HK$23.60/Target: HK$33.20) 2023: Results beat with higher payout ratio; pursue high-quality grow...
GREATER CHINA Results Anta (2020 HK/BUY/HK$83.55/Target: HK$109.60): 2023: Results beat on margin; on track to fulfil three-year targets. CR Land (1109 HK/BUY/HK$24.85/Target: HK$42.39): 2023: Results in line; clearer growth path ahead. CR Mixc (1209 HK/BUY/HK$23.60/Target: HK$33.20): 2023: Results beat with higher payout ratio; pursue high-quality growth. Nexteer Automotive Group (1316 HK/SELL/HK$3.24/Target: HK$2.20): 2023: Earnings miss estimate again on margin squeeze. Maintain SELL. Cut tar...
During the Chinese New Year (CNY) holiday, tourism, both domestic and outbound, catering and movie consumption put up strong performances. For the consumer sector, we prefer discretionary to staple, and Macau gaming in the discretionary space, given the strong recovery momentum of Macau tourism and moderate hike in opex. Galaxy is our top pick in Macau gaming sector, given its net cash position amid the higher interests. Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
The Chinese economy will see a gradual climb higher in 2024, hitting 4% yoy growth, with private consumption providing much of the heavy lifting. Policy easing will be incremental, focusing on the real estate sector and local government financing. Until these issues are resolved, PE expansion will be limited. Thus, EPS growth will be the key driver, with an index target of 67.3pt. Our focus is on smart consumption, premiumisation and turnaround stocks, staying negative on the auto sector.
The Chinese economy will see a gradual climb higher in 2024, hitting 4% yoy growth, with private consumption providing much of the heavy lifting. Policy easing will be incremental, focusing on the real estate sector and local government financing. Until these issues are resolved, PE expansion will be limited. Thus, EPS growth will be the key driver and our index target is at 67.3pt. Our focus is on smart consumption, premiumisation and turnaround stocks. Staying the course. The Central Financ...
During the Golden Week holiday, domestic tourism and catering recovery were on track while duty-free sales recovery was still weak. We prefer sportswear in the discretionary space, given the decent sales momentum during the holiday (Anta: in line with internal targets; Xtep: 20% yoy growth), and baijiu in the staples space, given baijiu’s strong brand power. We prefer Anta in the sportswear sector, given its multiple catalysts, and Moutai in the baijiu sector, for its highest earnings visibility...
Shenzhou’s 1H23 results missed market consensus by 7%, mainly due to the weakerthan- expected top-line. However, we believe that the worst is over for Shenzhou. Orders continue to recover going into 3Q23, and are expected to record orders’ positive growth from early-4Q23. We expect gross margin to improve given better production capacity utilisation. Maintain BUY and fine-tune target price by 2% to HK$86.80.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Sector Insurance Outstanding 1H23 results from PICC P&C, Ping An and Prudential. Results China Longyuan Power (916 HK/BUY/HK$6.27/Target: HK$8.80) 1H23: Above expectations; wind power utilisation hours grew 8.4% yoy. China Merchants Port (144 HK/BUY/HK$9.46/Target: HK$13.33) 1H23: Results broadly in line; attractive valuation amid cautious outlook. Maintain BUY. CR Land (1109 HK/BUY/HK$33.25/Target: HK$47.48) 1H23: Results beat expectations; leading market position further str...
GREATER CHINA Sector Insurance: Outstanding 1H23 results from PICC P&C, Ping An and Prudential. Results China Longyuan Power (916 HK/BUY/HK$6.27/Target: HK$8.80): 1H23: Above expectations; wind power utilisation hours grew 8.4% yoy. CR Land (1109 HK/BUY/HK$33.25/Target: HK$47.48): 1H23: Results beat expectations; leading market position further strengthened. Ganfeng Lithium (1772 HK/SELL/HK$40.15/Target: HK$33.00): 2Q23: Report profit beats on one-off gains, core earnings in line. Maintain SELL....
Shenzhou’s vertically-integrated position, strong R&D capabilities and good ESG practices anchor its leading position in the textile industry. We are positive on Shenzhou’s customer expansion and production efficiency improvement in the long term. Raise target price by 6% to HK$85.00. Maintain BUY.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Sector Automobile Weekly: EV sales expected to grow 15.5% mom in June, beating estimates. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT with preference for EV segment. Top BUYs: BYD, CATL and Li Auto. Update Kuaishou (1024 HK/BUY/HK$56.70/Target: HK$90.00) Best positioned for advertising comeback; to break even in 2Q23. Ping An Healthcare and Technology Company (1833 HK/HOLD/HK$19.16/Target:HK$18.00) 2023 revenue under pressure; corporate client acquisition to drive growth. Downgrade to HOLD. Shenzhou...
GREATER CHINA Sector Automobile: Weekly: EV sales expected to grow 15.5% mom in June, beating estimates. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT with preference for EV segment. Top BUYs: BYD, CATL and Li Auto. Update Kuaishou (1024 HK/BUY/HK$56.70/Target: HK$90.00): Best positioned for advertising comeback; to break even in 2Q23. Ping An Healthcare and Technology Company (1833 HK/HOLD/HK$19.16/Target:HK$18.00): 2023 revenue under pressure; corporate client acquisition to drive growth. Downgrade to HOLD. Shenzhou I...
We resume coverage on Shenzhou International with a BUY rating and a new target price of HK$80.00. We agree that the company’s business operation has been improving sequentially, which may lead to 2H23’s performance being better than that of 1H23. However, we believe that only clear signs of a turnaround (ie normalised orders visibility and domestic capacity utilisation), which may arise in 4Q23 at the earliest, will drive a re-rating of the stock.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Economics Money Supply Money supply growth slows, more easing expected. Sector Property Takeaways from Singapore/Kuala Lumpur marketing trip. Update Shenzhou International Group Holdings (2313 HK/BUY/HK$71.50/Target: HK$80.00) Expect a turnaround in 4Q23 at the earliest. TRADERS’ CORNER Baidu, Inc. (9888 HK): Trading Buy range: HK$130.00-138.00 TCL Electronics Holdings Limited (1070 HK): Trading Buy range: HK$3.50-3.62
GREATER CHINA Economics Money Supply: Money supply growth slows, more easing expected. Sector Property: Takeaways from Singapore/Kuala Lumpur marketing trip. Update Shenzhou International Group Holdings (2313 HK/BUY/HK$71.50/Target: HK$80.00): Expect a turnaround in 4Q23 at the earliest. INDONESIA Sector Banking: Asset quality under control. MALAYSIA Update Deleum (DLUM MK/HOLD/RM0.90/Target: RM0.89): Near-term earnings volatility is priced in, but its ESG benefits may appeal to long-term inve...
We expect to see periodical opportunities in the following months due to the slow pace of consumption recovery and lack of incremental funds. We suggest paying more attention when the share prices dip to a low level that is close to the bottoms in Apr/Oct-Nov 22. We are confident on domestic sportswear leaders’ future growth from the increasing demand for professional sports products against the partially recovered purchasing power. Maintain OVERWEIGHT on the consumer sector.
In spite of the limited funds in the market, we believe that consumer names’ investment opportunities still exist after share prices factored in rational expectations. We expect players with high earnings visibility and/or faster-than-expected growth pace (ie Moutai, Anta and CR Beer) to remain attractive for investment against a relatively weak consumption recovery background. Maintain OVERWEIGHT on the consumer sector.
In 2022, Shenzhou’s revenue grew 16.5% yoy and attributable net profit rose 35.3% yoy, thanks to forex gains of Rmb1.1b. Management expects sales to improve in the next few quarters and a 10-15% production capacity increase in 2023. Gross margin is also likely to normalise ahead thanks to the easing of material prices, increased efficiency, capacity utilisation normalisation, and an increasing proportion of self-supplied fabric. Maintain BUY and trim target price to HK$101.70.
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