reports
- Nichola James
- Thomas R. Torgerson
Baseline Macroeconomic Scenarios for Rated Sovereigns: June 2023 Updat...
In this commentary we provide an update to DBRS Morningstar’s Baseline Macroeconomic Scenarios. Key highlights include: -- Economic data continues to show resilience amid tighter financial conditions. Forecasts for 2023 continue to improve, while expectations for 2024 are generally worsening as projected slowdowns are pushed further out into the future. -- While a mild advanced economy recession will likely have a limited impact on rated sovereigns, the risk of a deeper downturn in 2024 canno...
3413Z GERMANY
1271Z FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF
GERMANY DENMARK
DENMARK KINGDOM OF
80710Z CANADA
1092Z GOVERNMENT OF
Lithuania UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
3344606Z UNITED KINGDOM OF GREAT BRITAIN AND NORTHERN IRELAND
1000Z LITHUANIA
ESTONIA REPUBLIC OF
PRCH LATVIA
CHINA REPUBLIC OF
1426Z ESTONIA
Belgium REPUBLIC OF
111136Z CHINA
1023Z PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF
Slovak UNITED MEXICAN STATES
1153Z BELGIUM
COLOMBIA KINGDOM OF
93187Z SLOVAK REPUBLIC
ARGENTINA COLOMBIA
1480Z REPUBLIC OF
Austria ARGENTINA
1233Z REPUBLIC OF
NORWAY AUSTRIA
1841Z REPUBLIC OF
3343903 NORWAY
CYPRUS KINGDOM OF
EUROPE SPAIN
1004Z KINGDOM OF
1110Z CYPRUS
1266Z REPUBLIC OF
IRELAND HELLENIC REPUBLIC
1179Z LUXEMBOURG
SWEDEN GRAND DUCHY OF
1306Z IRELAND
CN REPUBLIC OF
2103Z SWEDEN
172369Z KINGDOM OF
LATAM FINLAND
Japan REPUBLIC OF
1319293D ITALY
SLOVENIA REPUBLIC OF
1091Z URUGUAY
344758Z ORIENTAL REPUBLIC OF
5753Z JAPAN
223727Z SLOVENIA
1323Z REPUBLIC OF
1533Z SWISS CONFEDERATION
1545Z MALTA
ASIA REPUBLIC OF
1174Z FRANCE
Portugal REPUBLIC OF
1504Z BRAZIL
EM FEDERATIVE REPUBLIC OF
EMKT THE NETHERLANDS
ENEW KINGDOM OF
NI SINGAPORE
TOPEM REPUBLIC OF
TOPL PORTUGAL
REPUBLIC OF
INDIA
REPUBLIC OF
- Christian Aufsatz
- Mudasar Chaudhry
- Adriana Alvarado
- Nichola James
- Adriana Alvarado
- Nichola James
- Thomas R. Torgerson
Baseline Macroeconomic Scenarios for Rated Sovereigns: April 2023 Upda...
This commentary provides an update to DBRS Morningstar's Baseline Macroeconomic Scenarios. These baseline scenarios provide our estimate of the current market consensus, and are drawn from a simple median calculation across various external contributor forecasts. In this update, we discuss the deteriorating outlook for 2024. To date, we note that the March 2023 bank failures have had only a modest impact on forecasts. We continue to see considerable downside risks to the baseline. Key Highligh...
3413Z GERMANY
1271Z FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF
GERMANY DENMARK
DENMARK KINGDOM OF
80710Z CANADA
1092Z GOVERNMENT OF
Lithuania UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
3344606Z UNITED KINGDOM OF GREAT BRITAIN AND NORTHERN IRELAND
1000Z LITHUANIA
ESTONIA REPUBLIC OF
PRCH LATVIA
CHINA REPUBLIC OF
1426Z ESTONIA
Belgium REPUBLIC OF
111136Z CHINA
1023Z PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF
Slovak UNITED MEXICAN STATES
1153Z BELGIUM
COLOMBIA KINGDOM OF
93187Z SLOVAK REPUBLIC
ARGENTINA COLOMBIA
1480Z REPUBLIC OF
Austria ARGENTINA
1233Z REPUBLIC OF
NORWAY AUSTRIA
1841Z REPUBLIC OF
3343903 NORWAY
CYPRUS KINGDOM OF
EUROPE SPAIN
1004Z KINGDOM OF
1110Z CYPRUS
1266Z REPUBLIC OF
IRELAND HELLENIC REPUBLIC
1179Z LUXEMBOURG
SWEDEN GRAND DUCHY OF
1306Z IRELAND
CN REPUBLIC OF
2103Z SWEDEN
172369Z KINGDOM OF
LATAM FINLAND
Japan REPUBLIC OF
1319293D ITALY
SLOVENIA REPUBLIC OF
1091Z URUGUAY
344758Z ORIENTAL REPUBLIC OF
5753Z JAPAN
223727Z SLOVENIA
1323Z REPUBLIC OF
1533Z SWISS CONFEDERATION
1545Z MALTA
ASIA REPUBLIC OF
1174Z FRANCE
Portugal REPUBLIC OF
1504Z BRAZIL
EM FEDERATIVE REPUBLIC OF
EMKT THE NETHERLANDS
ENEW KINGDOM OF
NI SINGAPORE
TOPEM REPUBLIC OF
TOPL PORTUGAL
REPUBLIC OF
INDIA
REPUBLIC OF
- Adriana Alvarado
- Julia Specht
- Nichola James
Europe Macroeconomic Update: A Few More Rises in Interest Rates Amid I...
In this latest edition of the DBRS Morningstar Macroeconomic Update for Europe, we discuss how inflation persistence may prompt the European Central Bank and the Bank of England to raise interest rates further. Key Highlights EURO AREA • As interest rates increase, credit growth has started to slow. Energy prices have fallen but core inflation remains sticky, pointing to further monetary tightening in the coming months. • With the energy crisis fading and the labour market remaining strong, ...
1271Z FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF
GERMANY DENMARK
DENMARK KINGDOM OF
1092Z UNITED KINGDOM OF GREAT BRITAIN AND NORTHERN IRELAND
Lithuania LITHUANIA
3344606Z REPUBLIC OF
1000Z LATVIA
ESTONIA REPUBLIC OF
Belgium ESTONIA
111136Z REPUBLIC OF
EMKT BELGIUM
NI KINGDOM OF
TOPEM SLOVAK REPUBLIC
TOPL AUSTRIA
1023Z REPUBLIC OF
Slovak NORWAY
1480Z KINGDOM OF
Austria SPAIN
1233Z KINGDOM OF
NORWAY CYPRUS
1841Z REPUBLIC OF
3343903 HELLENIC REPUBLIC
CYPRUS LUXEMBOURG
EUROPE GRAND DUCHY OF
1004Z IRELAND
1110Z REPUBLIC OF
1266Z SWEDEN
IRELAND KINGDOM OF
1179Z FINLAND
SWEDEN REPUBLIC OF
1306Z ITALY
CN REPUBLIC OF
2103Z SLOVENIA
SLOVENIA REPUBLIC OF
1091Z SWISS CONFEDERATION
344758Z MALTA
5753Z REPUBLIC OF
223727Z FRANCE
1533Z REPUBLIC OF
1174Z THE NETHERLANDS
Portugal KINGDOM OF
PORTUGAL
REPUBLIC OF
- Adriana Alvarado
- Nichola James
Scotland: The Quest for Independence Will Continue Under New First Min...
The pro-independence Scottish National Party (SNP) has elected a new leader, who will likely become the First Minister of Scotland later today. A key question that follows is what this means for the Scottish independence movement and the overall cohesion of the UK. In our view, the path to Scottish independence is highly uncertain. The chances for independence look diminished after the UK Supreme Court ruling in November 2022. However, we do not expect the issue of Scottish independence to go aw...
- Adriana Alvarado
- Nichola James
Financial Market Stress Adding Risks to the UK Economic Outlook
During the global financial market turmoil over the past week, UK bank stocks have taken a hit. If prolonged, the market turmoil would weigh on the UK economic outlook. Continued widespread stresses in the financial sector would weaken confidence and tighten credit conditions. The heightened volatility in financial markets around the world follows the collapse of Credit Suisse and SVB Financial Group, including its UK arm, among other mid-sized US banks. We currently expect the effects on the U...
- Adriana Alvarado
- Nichola James
UK Spring Budget 2023: Further Government Support and A Milder Economi...
In its Spring Budget 2023, the UK government has presented measures aimed at providing further help to households to ease cost-of-living pressures, supporting economic growth in the medium term, and reducing the government debt ratio over the longer term. At the same time, the economic and fiscal outlook has improved compared with the forecasts presented in the Autumn Statement 2022. In DBRS Morningstar's view, despite the improved outlook, risks to the economy and the fiscal position remain sig...
- Mehdi Fadli
- Nichola James
London G15 Housing Associations: 2022 Financial Snapshot
The G15 is the group of London's largest housing associations, presenting a collective voice in the face of common economic, financial and environmental challenges. It comprises twelve Social and Affordable Housing Providers (SAHPs) which together own and manage almost 675,000 social housing units or close to 25% of England's social housing stock. In 2022, the G15 SAHPs accounted for almost 30% of the turnover of the English SAHP sector and also of investment in new social housing supply. While ...
- Carlo Capuano
- Javier Rouillet
- Thomas R. Torgerson
Prolonged Monetary Policy Tightening Could Exacerbate the Decline in H...
A more aggressive and prolonged monetary policy tightening in Canada, the United Kingdom, and the United States during 2023 and 2024 would likely have a negative impact on housing prices and on economic growth. Current market expectations are for these respective countries' central banks to significantly slow or pause their rate hike cycles in coming months. If this assumption proves incorrect and interest rates continue to move higher, this could weigh not only on investment but also on consume...
- Adriana Alvarado
- Nichola James
Northern Ireland Brexit Deal: A Favourable Development But Political H...
The United Kingdom (UK) and the European Union (EU) reached an agreement to amend the Northern Ireland (NI) Protocol, on 27 February 2023. After several months of talks over how the NI Protocol can be implemented, the UK and the EU have announced the 'Windsor Framework', agreeing on three main points - the smooth flow of trade within the UK, NI's place in the UK, and the sovereignty for the people of NI. The Windsor Framework could put an end to years of discord between the UK and the EU and h...
- Adriana Alvarado
- Nichola James
- Adriana Alvarado
- Nichola James
DBRS Morningstar Downgrades the United Kingdom to AA, Stable Trend
DBRS Ratings Limited (DBRS Morningstar) downgraded the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland’s (the United Kingdom or the UK) Long-Term Foreign and Local Currency – Issuer Ratings from AA (high) to AA. At the same time, DBRS Morningstar confirmed the United Kingdom’s Short-Term Foreign and Local Currency – Issuer Ratings at R-1 (high). The trend on all ratings is Stable.
- Adriana Alvarado
- Nichola James
- Thomas R. Torgerson
Baseline Macroeconomic Scenarios for Rated Sovereigns: December 2022 U...
This commentary provides an update to DBRS Morningstar’s Baseline Macroeconomic Scenarios. These baseline scenarios provide our estimate of the current market consensus, and are drawn from a simple median calculation across various external contributor forecasts. In this update, we discuss the ongoing monetary tightening and bleak outlook for 2023. Key highlights include: -- Forecasts for 2023 have deteriorated in recent months. Growth will be very weak or negative for most major economies. -- ...
3413Z GERMANY
1271Z FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF
GERMANY DENMARK
DENMARK KINGDOM OF
80710Z CANADA
1092Z GOVERNMENT OF
Lithuania UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
3344606Z UNITED KINGDOM OF GREAT BRITAIN AND NORTHERN IRELAND
1000Z LITHUANIA
ESTONIA REPUBLIC OF
1426Z LATVIA
Belgium REPUBLIC OF
111136Z ESTONIA
1023Z REPUBLIC OF
Slovak UNITED MEXICAN STATES
1153Z BELGIUM
COLOMBIA KINGDOM OF
93187Z SLOVAK REPUBLIC
ARGENTINA COLOMBIA
1480Z REPUBLIC OF
Austria ARGENTINA
1233Z REPUBLIC OF
NORWAY AUSTRIA
1841Z REPUBLIC OF
3343903 NORWAY
CYPRUS KINGDOM OF
EUROPE SPAIN
1110Z KINGDOM OF
1266Z CYPRUS
IRELAND REPUBLIC OF
1179Z LUXEMBOURG
SWEDEN GRAND DUCHY OF
1306Z IRELAND
CN REPUBLIC OF
2103Z SWEDEN
172369Z KINGDOM OF
LATAM FINLAND
Japan REPUBLIC OF
1319293D ITALY
SLOVENIA REPUBLIC OF
1091Z URUGUAY
344758Z ORIENTAL REPUBLIC OF
5753Z JAPAN
223727Z SLOVENIA
1323Z REPUBLIC OF
1533Z SWISS CONFEDERATION
1545Z MALTA
ASIA REPUBLIC OF
1174Z FRANCE
Portugal REPUBLIC OF
1504Z BRAZIL
EM FEDERATIVE REPUBLIC OF
EMKT THE NETHERLANDS
ENEW KINGDOM OF
NI SINGAPORE
TOPEM REPUBLIC OF
TOPL PORTUGAL
45793Z REPUBLIC OF
INDIA
REPUBLIC OF
CHILE
REPUBLIC OF
- Nichola James
- Sena Ozyapi
- Thomas R. Torgerson
Industrial Action is Back in the UK: Labor Strikes are Increasing unde...
With inflation rising above 11%, it has become harder for employers in the UK to meet the salary expectations of employees who are asking for better pay deals to keep up with the rising cost of living. The UK experienced 75 strikes in August, which is the highest number of work stoppages occurring in a month in the country since 1990 (Office for National Statistics). Now, in many industries, workers are opting into strikes collectively, are stopping working and protesting to their employers to r...
- Adriana Alvarado
- Nichola James
UK Autumn Statement 2022: Fiscal Consolidation Largely Pushed Back for...
The Autumn Statement, presented on 17 November 2022, proposes a combination of tax increases and spending cuts as well as targeted fiscal support in the near term to help households and businesses cushion the impact from high inflation. While it might be broadly balanced, some tax increases will be frontloaded while spending cuts will be backloaded. This all means that fiscal consolidation has been largely pushed back for later years, with public debt expected to increase in the near term. In th...
- Mehdi Fadli
- Nichola James
Scotland's Social and Affordable Housing Provider Sector’s Financials ...
The finances of European Social and Affordable Housing Providers (SAHPs) are at risk from the current economic and financial environment and the cost of living crisis. Risks are coming from rental payment arrears related to the higher cost of living, government-imposed rent caps also affecting revenue growth, rising interest rates and higher construction expenditure costs. At the same time, the need for investment expenditures related to both new and existing housing stock, including fulfilling...
- Adriana Alvarado
- Nichola James
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