EME Equity Market – January 2023 Market performance – strong start to 2023 in Czechia and Greece; multi-month rally interrupted in Turkey. The MSCI EM Europe Index gained 3.2% mom in EUR terms and 4.6% mom in USD in January. The Czech PX and the Greek ASE were the best performers, posting double-digit gains of 12.3% and 10.0% mom in EUR terms, respectively. There were also very decent performances from Poland, Hungary and Romania, with gains of 5.5% mom, 5.5% mom and 4.7% mom in EUR terms, respe...
HEADLINES: • Icelandic Banks: the outliers (initiating on Arion banki with a BUY and Islandsbanki with a HOLD) • OTP Bank: should fare well, absent more negative events (upgraded to BUY) • LPP: 3Q22 below expectations on costs pressure; strong Black Friday sales; FY22E guidance maintained NEGATIVE • US macro: Fed sticking to its hawkish message • NLB Group: constitutional court annuls FX law • Addiko Bank: Slovenian Constitutional Court rejects retroactive Swiss Franc Law POSITIVE • Mytilin...
EME Equity Market – October 2022 Market performance – in a positive month across the board, Turkey outperforms yet again. The MSCI EM Europe Index advanced by 12.7% mom in EUR terms and 14.4% mom in USD. The ISE30 was, once again, the best-performing index in our coverage, adding 23.4% mom in EUR terms and 25.2% in local currency terms. All the other indices recorded positive performances as well, with the WIG (+14.8% EUR / 11.5% lcl), the BUX (+11.4% EUR / 8.5% lcl) and the ASE (+10.3% EUR) del...
HEADLINES: • Orange Polska: 3Q22 results - EBITDAaL up 4% yoy, 5% above the consensus POSITIVE • Mytilineos: strong 3Q22, well ahead of our forecasts POSITIVE • Kaspi.kz: 3Q22 results - on track + guidance upgrade • Romanian real estate: postcard from Bucharest • Norilsk Nickel: 3Q22 operating results - 2022 run-rates close to guidance, cautious on 2023E NEUTRAL • Orange Polska: increases mobile contract B2C prices by 6-10% POSITIVE • CCC: bondholders approve changes in covenants NEUTRAL • Cyf...
HEADLINES: • Czech banks: Czech government presents windfall tax proposal • CEZ: disappointing windfall tax news NEGATIVE • Romanian energy: potential impact from EU emergency measures • LPP: key takeaways from the post-results conference • Jumbo: 9M22 sales +11% yoy, driven by strong domestic sales • Inter Cars: September sales growth stays at a solid 27% yoy POSITIVE • Norilsk Nickel: LME seeks market opinion on possible Russian metal ban NEUTRAL • Polish telecoms: mobile number portabilit...
EME Equity Market – August 2022 Market performance – Turkey the biggest winner, in a predominantly bad month. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined 1.2% mom in EUR and 2.8% mom in USD terms. Turkey’s ISE index outperformed all other indices, adding 24.9% mom in EUR terms and 25.1% in local currency terms. Hungary’s benchmark, the BUX Index, added 1.1% mom and 0.2% mom in EUR and HUF terms, respectively. Greece’s ASE Index had a muted performance and added only 0.6% mom. All the other indices across ...
HEADLINES: • Komercni Banka: strong 2Q22 results, 2022E outlook tweaked up, windfall tax risk still unknown NEUTRAL • Alior Bank: posts solid set of 2Q22 results POSITIVE • mBank: books strong gross profit (7% beat), but misses on bottom line due to tax rate reassessment NEUTRAL • BRD-GSG: 2Q22 - strong bottom line for another quarter • Alpha Bank: 2Q22 - positive trends across the board • Norilsk Nickel: 1H21 IFRS review - 6% below consensus on EBITDA, FCF slides by 25% yoy NEGATIVE • Polish...
EME Equity Market – July 2022 Market performance – markets mostly up during the month, but Russia’s MOEX down 9.4% in EUR terms. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 2.3% mom in EUR, but lost 0.5% mom in USD in July. The Greek ASE Index was the best performing benchmark, advancing 5.0% mom in EUR. Hungary’s benchmark, the BUX Index, added 4.4% mom and 6.5% mom in EUR and HUF terms, respectively. Romania’s BET Index gained 1.7% mom in EUR terms and 1.3% mom in local currency, while Turkey’s ISE20 added...
HEADLINES: • Pilulka Lekarny: blowing with the e-commerce wind (HOLD - initiation of coverage) • Wizz Air: thoughts on capital increase post 1Q FY23 results, CASK and RASK comparison vs. RYA • Mytilineos: strong second quarter, 2H22E should be even better • Titan Cement: 2Q22 - price increases restoring profitability • Garanti: 2Q22 highlights - beat, with lower quality • Ford Otosan: 2Q22 results - strong beat POSITIVE • Siauliu Bankas: 2Q22 - another strong quarter POSITIVE • Arena Hosp...
HEADLINES: • CCC: too fast, too furious (stays BUY) • Turkey macro: first genuinely bad confidence reading since COVID-19 • Romania macro: better than most • Greece macro: economic sentiment index drops sharply in June • Poland macro: economic sentiment down again, but consumers are the brighter spot • Czech Republic macro: confidence falls in June, but overall trend not too bad • Eurozone macro: June signals further mild improvements in inflation dynamics • Santander Bank Polska: to crea...
EME Equity Market – April 2022 Market performance – regional benchmarks performance rather mixed in April. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined by 5.3% in EUR terms and by 9.9% in USD. The best-performing market was Turkey, whose equities gained 13.3% in EUR terms and 9.2% in local currency. Russia’s MOEX Index added 9.0% in EUR terms, but declined by 9.6% in local currency. In Greece, the ASE Index advanced by 4.9% in EUR terms, the last to end the month in the black; while Romania’s BET Index rec...
HEADLINES: • Romanian utilities: for those willing to wait (Electrica stays BUY, Transgaz stays HOLD, Transelectrica upgraded to HOLD) • Santander Bank Polska: 1Q22 results review - strong beat vs. expectations on low provisions • Bank Millennium: 1Q22 results review - results in line with expectations • Polish banks: government proposals to aid mortgagors may hit Polish banks' 2022-23E earnings NEGATIVE • Garanti: 1Q22 highlights NEUTRAL • Orange Polska: 1Q22 results - EBITDAaL up 2% yoy, in ...
HEADLINES: • Russian commodities: the long and short side of it • Arcelik: 1Q22 results - as expected NEUTRAL • Turkish banks: number of changes by the CBT • Ten Square Games: management recommends PLN 10 DPS from the 2021 net profit POSITIVE • Kety: management recommends PLN 52.4 DPS (8% dividend yield) from the 2021 profit NEUTRAL • Norilsk Nickel: final 2021 dividend yield at 5.9%, ADR holders may not receive payment • Alrosa: Russian rough diamonds stop flowing to main Indian manufacturi...
HEADLINES: • PCF Group: adjusted EBITDA in line with our forecast; Outriders Worldslayer release at end-June NEUTRAL • Hellenic Bank: FY21 - moving in the right direction • Shoper: management call takeaways - 2022E to focus on growth, rather than margins NEUTRAL • Kernel: 3Q22 trading update NEUTRAL • PGNiG: operating estimates for 1Q22E, no major surprises • Fondul Proprietatea: State could consider offer of new shares in Hidroelectrica after Fondul's offer NEUTRAL • Petrol Group: AGM appro...
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has led to unprecedented dislocations of capital and resources, on top of human tragedies. The sanctions imposed, by the world’s key nations, on Russia, its politicians, institutions, companies and businessmen, as well as the counter-measures introduced by the Russian government, are wide-ranging and continue to be imposed on a daily basis. The most severe sanctions are related to the freezing of the CBR’s FX reserves, as well as the freezing of non-residents’ assets...
MARKET COMMENT - MSCI RUSSIA -27% D-O-D WHILE RUSSIA-UKRAINE, SANCTIONS NEWS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE INVESTOR ATTENTIONEquity trading in Moscow was canceled for yesterday and today. The government announced a range of measures to stabilize the Russian financial environment, but the measures also create risks for institutional investors. The MSCI Russia fell 27% yesterday, while Russia-Ukraine developments, sanctions news and the OPEC+ discussion are the obvious areas of focus today.STORIES> MSCI to...
КОММЕНТАРИЙ И ПРОГНОЗ - ИНДЕКС MSCI RUSSIA ЗА ДЕНЬ УПАЛ НА 27%, В ЦЕНТРЕ ВНИМАНИЯ СИТУАЦИЯ НА УКРАИНЕ И НОВОСТИ О САНКЦИЯХТорги на фондовом рынке в Москве вчера не проводились, и сегодня пауза продолжается. Правительство объявило ряд мер, нацеленных на стабилизацию финансовой ситуации в России, однако эти меры также создают риски для институциональных инвесторов. Индекс MSCI Russia упал на 27%. Сегодня в центре внимания остаются геополитические события. НОВОСТИ> Меры, принимаемые монетарными вла...
CIS EUROBOND MARKETAnother round of new Western sanctions, including a joint commitment from Europe, the US and Canada to freeze the international reserves of the CBR, caused quotes on Russian sovereign Eurobonds to fall 26-35 pp to 35-55% of par. Ukrainian Eurobonds fell 14-35 pp to 35-37% of par.GOVERNMENT DEBTThere was no trading on the Moscow Exchange yesterday. Meanwhile, the CBR raised the key rate to 20%, so it is likely that OFZ yields will exceed 17% in 5y+ tenors once trading resumes i...
РЫНОК ВНЕШНЕГО ДОЛГА СТРАН СНГОчередные санкции со стороны Запада, в том числе совместное заявление Европы, США и Канады о заморозке международных резервов ЦБ РФ, спровоцировали снижение котировок российских суверенных еврооблигаций на 26-35 п. п. до 35-55% от номинала. Украинские суверен-ные еврооблигации подешевели на 14-35 п. п. до 35-37% от номинала.ГОСУДАРСТВЕННЫЕ ЦЕННЫЕ БУМАГИВчера и сегодня торги на МосБирже не проводились. ЦБ РФ поднял ключевую ставку до 20%, поэтому, скорее всего, если ...
MARKET COMMENT - RTS PLUNGES, RUSSIA RECOGNIZES DNR AND LNR, EYES ON FURTHER DEVELOPMENTS TODAYThe RTS yesterday fell 13.2% to 1,208. Such a sharp fall had not been seen since 2008, and before that 1999. Yesterday's market collapse coincided with public discussions and the after-market announcement of the Russian government's recognition of the independence of the DNR and LNR. STORIES> RTS declines most since 2008, 1999; DNR/LNR recognition> VTB 4Q21 IFRS review: Modest end to year of ...
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