Solid across the board

5% beat vs consensus

Miss even incl. one-off items

Uneventful Q1: all eyes on CMD in May

Entra (Hold, TP: NOK105.00) - Continued asset value decline

Entra reported weaker underlying Q1 results than we expected, as well as still-declining asset values (-2.5% QOQ) due to higher yield valuations. On increased market interest rates, we have cut our 2024–2026e FFO by c12–16%. We reiterate our HOLD, but have lowered our target price to NOK105 (115).

Not what we wanted, but 100 is the new 80

Weak report on most metrics. Large long-term potential. BUY, TP of NOK 135.

Wihlborgs (Buy, TP: SEK105.00) - Strong Q1 net lettings, as expected

The Q1 results were solid, with strong net lettings (as flagged) and a 4% consensus beat on PFPM (albeit fully explained by a one-off). Following a good start to Q2 lettings, we see potential for the strong net-lettings trend to continue. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK105 (100) on a tweaked valuation.

Nyfosa (Hold, TP: SEK100.00) - Sector outperformance petering out

Despite raising our target price to SEK100 (91) on tweaked valuation, we have downgraded Nyfosa to HOLD (BUY), finding the valuation rich after strong sector outperformance (since October, it has gained c100% versus the sector’s 37%), on: 1) the risk of an uptick in market interest rates given its relatively high leverage and short interest-rate duration; 2) rather soft rental-market KPIs; and 3) insider divestment from founder Mr Engwall.

Solid but unexciting credit

Credit neutral Q1. A solid name among high yields. But bonds are largely de-risked and it shows in prices.

EPBD the big story this week

The Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD) was approved on 12 April, requiring the modernisation of existing real estate in the EU, and will soon enter the Official Journal of the EU. In other news, KMC Properties bought a new asset and appointed an interim CEO, JM got a new CEO, while Castellum announced a divestment and new leases, and Atrium Ljungberg kicked off Q1 reporting season. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.74% for 2024e and 5.01% for 2...

Wihlborgs (Buy, TP: SEK100.00) - Back up to BUY ahead of Q1

We have upgraded Wihlborgs to BUY (HOLD) and raised our target price to SEK100 (90). We no longer see a near-term risk to the stock from material asset write-downs, but rather expect investors to focus on healthy momentum in lettings at Wihlborgs. With a positive outlook for Q1, we forecast strong net lettings, and are 3% above Infront consensus on profit from property management (PFPM). The results are due at 07:30 CET on 23 April.

Atrium Ljungberg (Hold, TP: SEK200.00) - Cost control behind PFPM beat

Strong cost control and an energy-cost tailwind gave a 5% PFPM beat, while the uptick in vacancy rate and negative net letting (second consecutive quarter) were key negatives. We have cut our 2025–2026e EPS by 2–3%, mainly on market interest-rate changes. We reiterate our HOLD and have lowered our target price to SEK200 (220) on a tweaked valuation yield. Benefiting from a strong hedging portfolio in 2023 (FFOPS +16% YOY, among the best in the sector), we expect muted FFOPS growth in our forecas...

Fully valued near-term

We maintain a neutral sector stance, but see near-term setbacks and consider risks tilted to the downside near-term due to strong sector performance in the past month, while market interest rates have risen. We expect two years of zero NAV growth, on average, due to yield expansion, and the sector theme to be deleveraging, with limited capex. We see few potential company-specific catalysts, leaving share prices largely driven by macro factors. We consider the sector fully valued near-term, at an...

Fastighets AB Balder: 1 director

A director at Fastighets AB Balder maiden bought 5,000 shares at 76.500SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 69/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two ...

Vacancy uptick in Stockholm

This week, Citymark announced vacancies in the Stockholm office market are now higher than during the 2007–2008 financial crisis. Selvaag Bolig (SELL, TP NOK25) released KPIs for Q1, where unsold inventory was at an all-time high. Norwegian house prices rose 0.9% in March and 5.9% YTD. Entra announced leases. Corem announced that it aims to issue bonds. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.62% for 2024e and 4.88% for 2025e.

Transactions, debt repurchase, and National Transport Plan

This week, Corem, Catena and Vasakronan (which re-entered the M&A arena after a more than 5-year absence) announced property transactions, SBB saw its share price rise by 29% on the week after retiring long-term debt, and the Norwegian government unveiled a somewhat smaller budget in its latest National Transport Plan (NTP), with a weak read-across to the local construction and consultancy sector, in our view The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.54% for 2024e a...

Pandox AB: 1 director

A director at Pandox AB sold 2,000,000 shares at 170.000SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 74/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly s...

Insider transactions, SBB rating lowered and lease contracts

There were several insider transactions this week. Also, SBB offered to buy back certain hybrid and senior bonds, and credit agencies lowered their ratings in response. Corem announced new leases, and a large Norwegian real estate syndicate was taken over by one of its bondholders. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.60% for 2024e and 4.86% for 2025e.

Wallenstam AB: 1 director

A director at Wallenstam AB sold 2,000,000 shares at 49.000SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 70/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearl...

Olav Thon Eiendomsselskap ASA: Update to credit analysis

Our credit view of this issuer reflects its status as a leading shopping center operator in Norway with low leverage against structural risks as increasing penetration of e-commerce.