Q2 sales were in line with consensus, and EBITA 3% below on a 30bp lower margin than expected, with a weaker performance in Sweden, but a strong margin in Rest of Nordic. We reiterate our BUY and SEK55 target price, but have edged down our 2024–2025e EBITA by 3–2% on slightly lower margin assumptions. We still see an attractive risk/reward, as falling interest rates should provide support for a market recovery.
We forecast 5% negative organic growth YOY in Q2, but believe Q1 marked the trough and expect a gradual recovery and return to organic growth in Q1 2025. We see sector activity picking up towards end-2024 as interest rates come down. We still like the Instalco risk/reward, and reiterate our BUY while we have raised our target price to SEK55 (48).
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