reports
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
KDDI (Buy, TP: ¥3,150, +28%) Q2 FY25 Quick Take: On track for a stron...
KDDI posted better trends following a modest Q1. Revenue was 1% ahead while EBIT inflected to growth. Management has also given more clarity on the EBIT growth going into 2H, expecting a 10% growth based on its unchanged guidance which is in line with consensus. Softbank Corp remains our preferred pick in Japan, followed by KDDI and NTT.
- Chris Hoare
Softbank Corp (Buy, TP: ¥270, +26%) Q2 FY25 Quick Take: Strong again
Softbank Corp printed a strong set of results with revenue beating by over 1%, led by growth across the board and earnings beat on EBIT strength from Consumer, Financials and Media & EC. The company has also outlined better than expected revenue target for both Enterprise and Distribution. Interim dividends remained unchanged from last year. Our assessment of the results below.
- Pelham Smithers
PSA Strategy: Japan Stock Market Quarterly for 2025 Q4
For almost three years the Nikkei 225 has been tracking its performance from the 2003~5 bull market, albeit at levels some 3.3x higher In this report, Pelham Smithers discusses the similarities and asks three key questions: (1) Can we continue to track 2005 through the rest of the year; (2) Whatever happens in Q4, should we fear or be hopeful for 2026? And (3) Who are the upcoming winners and losers.
4689 Z HOLDINGS CORPORATION
7751 CANON INC.
6952 CASIO COMPUTER CO. LTD.
4519 CHUGAI PHARMACEUTICAL CO. LTD.
7762 CITIZEN WATCH CO LTD.
4751 CYBERAGENT INC.
4755 RAKUTEN INC.
9433 KDDI CORPORATION
5803 FUJIKURA LTD
4902 KONICA MINOLTA INC.
6752 PANASONIC CORPORATION
7752 RICOH COMPANY LTD.
6869 SYSMEX CORPORATION
5423 TOKYO STEEL MANUFACTURING CO. LTD.
8729 SONY FINANCIAL HOLDINGS INC.
7267 HONDA MOTOR CO. LTD.
7202 ISUZU MOTORS LIMITED
9616 KYORITSU MAINTENANCE CO. LTD.
6981 MURATA MANUFACTURING CO. LTD.
6723 RENESAS ELECTRONICS CORPORATION
7974 NINTENDO CO. LTD.
6701 NEC CORP.
6594 NIDEC CORPORATION
7731 NIKON CORP.
2371 KAKAKU.COM INC.
6963 ROHM CO. LTD.
6753 SHARP CORPORATION
6762 TDK CORPORATION
4502 TAKEDA PHARMACEUTICAL CO. LTD.
6857 ADVANTEST CORP.
6976 TAIYO YUDEN CO. LTD.
4186 TOKYO OHKA KOGYO CO. LTD.
8035 TOKYO ELECTRON LTD.
7261 MAZDA MOTOR CORP.
3774 INTERNET INITIATIVE JAPAN
3697 SHIFT
6857 JP ADVANEST
6460 JP SEGA SAMMY
4385 MERCARI INC.
36350 KOEI TECMO
45870 PEPTIDREAM INC
3491 JT GA TECHNOLOGIES
3630 JT DENSAN SYSTEM CO LTD (3630 JT)
4194 VISIONAL
4483 JMDC
WOLF WOLFSPEED INC
TSE: 2980 SRE HOLDINGS CORP
AST VISIONAL INC
5032 JT ASTREE CIE ASSURANCE & REASSURANCE
5253 JT ANYCOLOR INC
9616 JT COVER CORPORATION (5253 JT)
8473 JT KYORITSU MAINTENANCE (9616 JT)
215A SBI HOLDINGS [STRATEGIC BUSINESS INNOVATOR GROUP] (8473 JT)
285A JT TIMEE INC
KIOXIA CORPORATION (285A JT)
- Chris Hoare
- Pierre FerraguÊ
SoftBank and the U.S. government shoring up Intel?
Intel and SoftBank announced yesterday evening that SoftBank will acquire $2bn of newly issued Intel shares. At the same time reports of the U.S. government taking a direct stake in Intel are becoming more tangible. Please see the link below for our take.
- Chris Hoare
Japanese Telcos – Q1 FY25 review: Steady start, all eyes on Mobile pri...
Revenue trends were steady as the softer mobile growth was offset by improvement in non-mobile. Softbank remained the outperformer, but this has already been baked in as expectations for Group revenue are sitting ahead of guidance by 3%.
- Chris Hoare
- Pierre FerraguÊ
Softbank Corp (Buy, TP: ¥270, +19%) Q1 FY25 Quick Take: Another decen...
Softbank Corp reported a relatively in-line topline and EBITDA whilst headline EBIT was 4% ahead of expectations. Trends in mobile service revenue slowed with continued momentum in net additions (in particular Y!Mobile) offsetting the marginal decline in mobile ARPU.
- Chris Hoare
KDDI (Buy, ¥3,150, +24%) Q1 FY25 Quick Take: Modest start but managem...
Q1 results were a touch softer than expected as trends in Business moderated. Tone remains encouraging for mobile to further accelerate in the second half as the impact of new mobile plans and price increase begin to flow through. Guidance remains unchanged. We continue to see good upside surprise in Mobile and stay Buyers with a ¥3,150 price target.
- Chris Hoare
Japanese Telcos Q4 FY24 review: Inflationary telco market
Japan’s mobile sector accelerated again in Q4 and we think is heading to above inflation. With both KDDI and DCM recently announcing price increases the environment is increasingly benign and should be helped by NTT’s recent acquisition of SBI Sumishin Net Bank. Our recent trip to Japan highlighted how positive the environment is; NTT stays our preferred pick, with KDDI closely behind.
- Pierre FerraguÊ
CLS CELESTICA INC.
NOW SERVICENOW INC.
TXN TEXAS INSTRUMENTS INCORPORATED
TSLA TESLA INC
T AT&T INC.
MXL MAXLINEAR INC
LRCX LAM RESEARCH CORPORATION
INTC INTEL CORPORATION
GOOGL ALPHABET INC. CLASS A
NOKIA NOKIA OYJ
BSI BE SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRIES N.V.
2330 TSMC
6723 RENESAS ELECTRONICS CORPORATION
9984 SOFTBANK GROUP CORP.
DLR DIGITAL REALTY TRUST INC.
ASML ASML HOLDING N.V.
DHER ASML HOLDING NV
MBLY DELIVERY HERO SE
AAPL MOBILEYE NV
IBM APPLE INC.
STM INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS MACHINES CORPORATION
BESI STMICROELECTRONICS NV
9434 SOFTBANK CORP.
VRT VERTIV HOLDINGS CO (A)
HYUELE SK HYNIX
AAPL US APPLE INC
- Chris Hoare
Takeaways from Meetings with the Japanese Telcos + Rakuten in Tokyo. D...
We met with all 3 of the incumbent Japanese Telcos & Rakuten in Tokyo last week, as well as visiting Osaka to talk to NTT in more depth about IOWN. Overall, we remain bullish on Japanese telcos operationally and buyers of all three incumbents. NTT remains our top pick followed by KDDI.
- Chris Hoare
KDDI (Buy, ¥3,150, +22%) Q4 24 Quick Take: Good revenue growth; big b...
KDDI reported a better top-line, and generous shareholder remuneration. However, guidance is largely in line and leaves us wondering what happens after the company hits it in March ’26. Within this space, NTT remains our preferred pick on potential upside catalysts (IOWN revenue optionality, NTT Data and Fixed line rebound) while KDDI remains a close second with a ¥3,150 price target.
- Chris Hoare
Softbank Corp (Buy, TP: ¥270, +22%) Q4 24 Quick Take: Mobile up-tradi...
Softbank Corp delivered a decent EBITDA and EBIT beat in Q4 led by steady topline growth and cost reductions. Mobile service revenue was very strong and accelerated in Q4, supported by net additions whilst mobile ARPU was relatively stable. Despite FY25 guidance being revised higher, it was still 4-5% below expectations at the EBIT and earnings line.
- Pierre FerraguÊ
- Pierre FerraguÊ
Getting over Tariffs – Step back. Rethink. Move on.
Swings observed in the last 10 days has been second to none. The Great Financial Crisis and Covid didn’t get us in a worst spot. Make no mistake: The markets are panicking today even more than when the world came to a COVID standstill, with the individual contributors to the vast majority of the world’s GDP locked down. How reasonable is that? Very little, in our view. The polarization of the political landscape has created a global brain freeze. Few analyses calmly assess the U.S. administrati...
- Pierre FerraguÊ
- Pelham Smithers
PSA Strategy: Japan Stock Market Quarterly for 2025 Q2
In this quarterly strategy report, we look to evaluate where we are with regards the bull market conditions, and where those indicators might be headed, factoring in the downside risks, from Trump tariffs and the US economy, BoJ actions, Japanese earnings and valuations.
AMAT APPLIED MATERIALS INC.
6146 DISCO CORPORATION
5108 BRIDGESTONE CORPORATION
7751 CANON INC.
9697 CAPCOM CO. LTD.
4519 CHUGAI PHARMACEUTICAL CO. LTD.
4755 RAKUTEN INC.
9684 SQUARE ENIX HOLDINGS CO. LTD.
8473 SBI HOLDINGS INC.
6954 FANUC CORPORATION
4324 DENTSU GROUP INC.
6861 KEYENCE CORPORATION
6869 SYSMEX CORPORATION
8306 MITSUBISHI UFJ FINANCIAL GROUP INC.
6501 HITACHI LTD.
6305 HITACHI CONSTRUCTION MACHINERY CO. LTD.
7267 HONDA MOTOR CO. LTD.
6301 KOMATSU LTD.
6503 MITSUBISHI ELECTRIC CORP.
6723 RENESAS ELECTRONICS CORPORATION
7974 NINTENDO CO. LTD.
6594 NIDEC CORPORATION
7731 NIKON CORP.
8604 NOMURA HOLDINGS INC.
7733 OLYMPUS CORP.
4666 PARK24 CO. LTD.
2371 KAKAKU.COM INC.
9984 SOFTBANK GROUP CORP.
1803 SHIMIZU CORPORATION
4063 SHIN-ETSU CHEMICAL CO LTD
6758 SONY CORPORATION
7269 SUZUKI MOTOR CORP.
1801 TAISEI CORP
6857 ADVANTEST CORP.
4186 TOKYO OHKA KOGYO CO. LTD.
8035 TOKYO ELECTRON LTD.
7203 TOYOTA MOTOR CORP.
2413 M3 INC.
2160 GNI GROUP LTD.
3659 NEXON CO. LTD.
6098 RECRUIT HOLDINGS CO. LTD.
3769 GMO PAYMENT
6460 JP SEGA SAMMY
4385 MERCARI INC.
3993 PKSHA TECHNOLOGY INC.
9434 SOFTBANK CORP.
78320 BANDAI NAMCO
45870 PEPTIDREAM INC
3491 JT GA TECHNOLOGIES
3394 JT MONEY FOWARD
6532 JT BAYCURRENT CONSULTING (6532 JT)
4483 JMDC
4180 JP APPIER GROUP
TSE: 2980 SRE HOLDINGS CORP
4194 VISIONAL INC
6526 SOCIONEXT INC
5032 JT ANYCOLOR INC
5838 RAKUTEN BANK LTD.
5253 JT COVER CORPORATION (5253 JT)
9616 JT KYORITSU MAINTENANCE (9616 JT)
- Chris Hoare
Japanese Telcos Q3 FY24 review: Diverging expectations; NTT still pre...
Aggregate service revenue trended better on higher contribution from non-mobile, coupled with mobile improvement. Industry mobile was primarily driven by Softbank’s outperformance. Q3 EBITDA dropped on higher mobile marketing costs at NTT which the company seeks to offset through cost efficiencies. DOCOMO is the clear mobile underperformer, but we believe expectations for Fixed recovery is still low, plus there is IOWN optionality. NTT remains our preferred pick.
- Chris Hoare
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