reports
- Egor Fedorov
- James Wilson
- Oleksiy Soroka
- CFA
EM Credit Spark/EM credit weekly
Markets were calmer last week as investors continue to look towards potential rate cuts in the US in September. Chair Jerome Powell at his Jackson Hole speech on Friday, 23 August, sent strong signals that the Fed is ready to cut key rates. “The time has come for policy to adjust. The direction of travel is clear". Markets now price up to 100bp in US key rates cut till the end of the year and a further 125bp of cuts next year. We view the macro backdrop as supportive for EM credit, while new sup...
YKBNK YAPI VE KREDI BANKASI A.S.
ISCTR TURKIYE IS BANKASI ANONIM SIRKETI CLASS C
PUMA PUMA ENERGY ZAMBIA PLC
AKBNK AKBANK TAS
103M SASOL LIMITED
QNBFB QNB FINANSBANK A.S.
TSKB TURKIYE SINAI KALKINMA BANKASI AS
TTRAK TURK TRAKTOR VE ZIRAAT MAKINELERI A.S.
VAKBN TURKIYE VAKIFLAR BANKASI TURK ANONIM ORTAKLIGI
19XX NEPI ROCKCASTLE N.V.
- Oleksiy Soroka
- CFA
Turkish bank sector update/Moving forward
We believe that Turkish banks passed the lowest point of the year in terms of net interest margins (NIM) in 2Q24. With some aspects of full-year guidance tweaked after the first-half reporting season, we now expect these banks' performance to be broadly in line with the updated FY24 targets.
- Egor Fedorov
- James Wilson
- Oleksiy Soroka
- CFA
- Oleksiy Soroka
- CFA
YKBNK YAPI VE KREDI BANKASI A.S.
ISCTR TURKIYE IS BANKASI ANONIM SIRKETI CLASS C
AKBNK AKBANK TAS
QNBFB QNB FINANSBANK A.S.
TSKB TURKIYE SINAI KALKINMA BANKASI AS
VAKBN TURKIYE VAKIFLAR BANKASI TURK ANONIM ORTAKLIGI
ZRGYO ZIRAAT GAYRIMENKUL YATIRIM ORTAKLIGI AS
- Egor Fedorov
- James Wilson
- Oleksiy Soroka
- CFA
EM Credit Spark/EM credit weekly
Some signs of cooling economic data out of the US, and the start of DM rate-cutting cycles has offered some optimism for EM assets, with the grind tighter in credit spreads continuing as seen for much of this year. We expect the benign environment to offer further opportunities for new issuance, while spread levels look fairly tight.
- Research Team
- Research Team
The Rear-View Mirror – EME markets: February mostly green, despite det...
EME Equity Market – February 2024 Market performance – a positive February, with the Polish WIG20 outperforming. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 4.2% mom in EUR terms and 3.7% mom in USD in February. The Polish WIG20 saw the strongest performance, adding 6.4% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Greek ASE (+4.2% mom), the Turkish ISE30 (+4.0% mom) and the Romanian BET (+2.6% mom) (all in EUR terms). There was a relatively muted performance in Hungary (+0.6% mom in EUR terms) and a decline in the Cze...
PEO BANK POLSKA KASA OPIEKI SA
JMT JERONIMO MARTINS SGPS S.A.
KRU KRUK S.A.
MOL MOL NYRT
EBS ERSTE GROUP BANK AG
CEZ CEZ AS
HTO HELLENIC TELECOMMUNICATIONS ORGANIZATION SA
YKBNK YAPI VE KREDI BANKASI A.S.
OMV OMV AG
PKO PKO BANK POLSKI S.A.
ISCTR TURKIYE IS BANKASI ANONIM SIRKETI CLASS C
KOMB KOMERCNI BANKA A.S.
BHW BANK HANDLOWY W WARSZAWIE S.A.
PZU POWSZECHNY ZAKLAD UBEZPIECZEN SPOLKA AKCYJNA
VER VERBUND AG CLASS A
SPL SANTANDER BANK POLSKA SA
BSK ING BANK SLASKI S.A.
BDX BUDIMEX S.A.
MTELEKOM MAGYAR TELEKOM TELECOMMUNICATIONS
TPS ORANGE POLSKA S.A.
PKN POLSKI KONCERN NAFTOWY ORLEN S.A.
LPP LPP S.A.
AKBNK AKBANK TAS
AKCNS AKCANSA CIMENTO
CIMSA CIMENTO SANYAI VE TICARET A.S.
LOGO LOGO YAZILIM SANAYI VE TICARET A.S.
CCC CCC SA
CCOLA COCA-COLA ICECEK A.S.
AUG1L AGROWILL GROUP AB
MGROS MIGROS TICARET A.S
APR AUTO PARTNER SA
LVC LIVECHAT SOFTWARE SA
TBCB TBC BANK JOINT STOCK CO
TPEIR PIRAEUS BANK SA
PPC PUBLIC POWER CORPORATION S.A.
CAR INTER CARS S.A.
ARCLK ARCELIK A.S.
EUR EUROCASH S.A.
GSPARK GRAPHISOFT PARK SE
GPW WARSAW STOCK EXCHANGE
11B 11 BIT STUDIOS S.A.
ALR ALIOR BANK SA
VGO VIGO SYSTEM SA
BANK OF CYPRUS PCL
WPL WIRTUALNA POLSKA HOLDING SA
BRD BRD-GROUPE SOCIETE GENERALE
TLV BANCA TRANSILVANIA S.A.
MONET MONETA MONEY BANK AS
SNG SOCIETATEA NATIONALA DE GAZE NATURALE ROMGAZ SA
SNP PETROM S.A.
PBK PATRIA BANK SA
TOFAS TOFAS TURK OTOMOBIL FABRIKASI A.S.
DIGI DIGI COMMUNICATIONS NV
SNN SOCIETATEA NATIONALA NUCLEARELECTRICA SA
TEL C.N.T.E.E. TRANSELECTRICA
ELSA SOCIETATEA ENERGETICA ELECTRICA
FP. FONDUL PROPRIETATEA S.A. GDR (REG S)
BVB S.C. BURSA DE VALORI BUCURESTI S.A.
GEB BANK OF GEORGIA
TGN SOCIETATEA NATIONALA DE TRANSPORT GAZE NATURALE TRANSGAZ S.A.
RICHT RICHTER
19XX NEPI ROCKCASTLE PLC
M MED LIFE
SFG SPHERA FRANCHISE GROUP SA
ADNOCDIST ADNOC DISTRIBUTION PJSC
EAT AMREST HOLDINGS SE
NLBR NLB GROUP
KAP NATIONAL ATOMIC COMPANY KAZATOMPROM
TEN TEN SQUARE GAMES
KSPI KASPI KZ
HUGE HUUUGE
4IG 4IG NYRT
IGN1L IGNITIS GRUPE
WPS W.A.G PAYMENT SOLUTIONS PLC
PCO PEPCO GROUP NV
ONE KAZMUNAYGAS NC JSC
KLKIM ONE UNITED PROPERTIES SA
ADNOCDRILL KALEKIM KIMYEVI MADDELER SANAYI VE TICARET AS
AROBS ADNOC DRILLING CO
7202 AROBS TRANSILVANIA SOFTWARE SA
ELPE ARABIAN INTERNET & COMMUNICATIONS SERVICES CO
SHO HELLENIQ ENERGY
4071 SHOPER SA
BOROUGE ARABIAN CONTRACTING SERVICES CO
H2O BOROUGE
AQ HIDROELECTRICA S.A.
AQUILA PART PROD COM
- Egor Fedorov
- James Wilson
EM Credit Spark/EM credit weekly
UST yields ticked higher this week amid a lack of macro data, while EM credit in general performed well. We expect spreads should remain well supported in the current environment but see little scope for valuations to grind much tighter absent a clearer policy shift from central banks or positive geopolitical news.
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: BHW PW, ISCTR TI, TOASO TI, RO macro, FP RO, TRP RO, VER A...
• Bank Handlowy: 2023 results imply a generous dividend yield, but reveal a weak growth profile • Isbank: 4Q23 highlights and guidance • Tofas: strong beat in the 4Q23 results • Romania macro: MPC on hold, with easing cycle in sight • Fondul Proprietatea: shareholders approve the buy-back and sale of the stake in Engie • TeraPlast: takeaways from the 4Q23 earnings call • Verbund: proposes a special DPS of EUR 0.75 on top of the regular DPS of EUR 3.4 • Solutions by STC: 4Q23E results preview (du...
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: YKBNK TI; EME Macro/Strategy Weekly; TL Macro; WPL PW
HEADLINES: • Yapi Kredi: 4Q23 results and 2024E guidance highlights NEUTRAL • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (29 January-4 February) • Turkey macro: new CBRT Governor appointed • Wirtualna Polska: 4Q23E preview – 2% yoy adjusted EBITDA growth expected (due on 26 March) • Short News (HUG, CEZ, TRP)
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: H2O RO; MONET CP; AKBNK TI; KAP LI; SNP RO; BRD RO; KRU PW...
HEADLINES: • Hidroelectrica: incorporating lower power prices (downgraded to HOLD) • MONETA Money Bank: publishes 4Q23 results, guides for CZK 9 of 2023 DPS, upgrades 2024-28E EPS guidance NEUTRAL • Akbank: 4Q23 results and 2024E guidance highlights Kazatomprom: 4Q operational update and guidance NEUTRAL • OMV Petrom: takeaways from the 4Q23 earnings call NEUTRAL • BRD-GSG: SocGen may be mulling over potential sale of its Romanian subsidiary NEUTRAL • Kruk: invests EUR 212m in 1Q24E in Italy,...
CDR CD PROJEKT S.A.
AKBNK AKBANK TAS
BFT BENEFIT SYSTEMS S.A. ALLOTMENT
CPS CYFROWY POLSAT SA
11B 11 BIT STUDIOS S.A.
WPL WIRTUALNA POLSKA HOLDING SA
BRD BRD-GROUPE SOCIETE GENERALE
TLV BANCA TRANSILVANIA S.A.
MONET MONETA MONEY BANK AS
SNP PETROM S.A.
EAT AMREST HOLDINGS SE
KAP NATIONAL ATOMIC COMPANY KAZATOMPROM
TEN TEN SQUARE GAMES
PCF PCF GROUP SA
HUGE HUUUGE
SHO SHOPER SA
H2O HIDROELECTRICA S.A.
- Egor Fedorov
- James Wilson
- Oleksiy Soroka
- CFA
EM Credit Spark/EM credit weekly
A volatile week for EM amid renewed sharp moves in the UST market, although spread levels in general held up relatively well. With focus returning to the US banking sector and uncertainty remaining around the path of the Fed, we expect macro volatility to continue to drive returns for EM credit and should see increased dispersion across names.
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