reports
- Wim Lewi
Elia Group Analyst Day Take-Aways
Elia hosted its first Analyst day on the site of its National Control Center (NCC) in Vilvoorde (BXL). Elia intended mainly to educate Analysts on its operations, but also provided a Q&A session with the (interim) CEO and CFO. A new CEO is expected before the year end. Elia is examining different scenario's on the equity needs. There is a lot of noise at the moment with a new government shift in BE, potential early elections in GE and the pending sale of Tennet. The visit to the NCC gave a perfe...
- Baptiste Salaville
- Charlotte Vaisse
- Olfa Taamallah
- Thomas Zlowodzki
- Yan Derocles
- Baptiste Salaville
- Charlotte Vaisse
- Michael B. Schäfer
- Thomas Zlowodzki
ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 02/10/2024
Rechutant début septembre à cause des inquiétudes sur un risque de récession aux USA, les marchés actions se sont ensuite repris grâce au pivot de la Fed et au plan de relance chinois qu’on n’attendait plus. La baisse des taux courts permet de mettre fin à l’inversion de la courbe sur les rendements souverains. Autos, Energy et Healthcare ont nettement sous-performé le Stoxx 600. Demain, la Golden Week, l’élection US et le budget français seront clés pour une poursuite de la progressi...
- Baptiste Salaville
- Charlotte Vaisse
- Michael B. Schäfer
- Thomas Zlowodzki
ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 10/02/2024
Falling back sharply in early September due to concerns about a risk of recession in the US, equity markets then recovered thanks to the Fed's pivot and the Chinese stimulus plan that was no longer expected. The fall in short-term rates did put an end to the inversion of the curve on sovereign yields. Autos, energy and healthcare significantly underperformed the Stoxx 600. To come, Golden Week, the US election and the French budget will be key to a continued market progress. With, of ...
- Baptiste Salaville
- Charlotte Vaisse
- Olfa Taamallah
- Thomas Zlowodzki
- Yan Derocles
- Thijs Berkelder
Elia Group : Not yet a new CEO but on track to deliver on its growth p...
>Feedback analyst day - Yesterday, Elia Group held its Analyst Day in its Belgian National Control Centre in Schaerbeek, near Brussel. Next to the expanded IR team also present were interim-CEO Catherine Vandenborre and interim-CFO Marco Nix. Selection new CEO takes more time. Where analysts were hoping for a surprise CEO reveal party, reality is that Elia is still busy with the selection of a new CEO preferable having experience in an international industrial gr...
- Geoffroy Michalet
Bureau Veritas : Set for further robust trends in Q3, a high-quality e...
>Q3 very close to Q2, ahead of Q4 close to Q1 in organic terms? - The group is due to report its Q3 revenues on 23 October 2024 (after trading). Based on a company contact, we have fine-tuned our forecasts. Overall, we note a message that is consistent with that conveyed at the H1 release. For Q3, we use a scenario that is very close to that of Q2, with organic growth of slightly over 10% (10.3%e vs 10.4% in Q2). Our forecasts for Q4, at 8.0%, are similar to Q1 (8.0%)...
- Guy Sips
- Hilde Van Boxstael
- Sharad Kumar S.P
- Thibault Leneeuw
- Wim Hoste
- Wim Lewi
- Anthony Dick
- Michael Foundoukidis
TRATON : CMD feedback: still one of the most attractive equity stories...
>A clear roadmap for a continuing operational improvement - TRATON held a CMD yesterday, which provided an opportunity to update its roadmap for the next 5 years. Given that it should be able to come close to, or even achieve, the targets set when the last plan was issued in 2022 (which, as a reminder, aimed to reach an EBIT margin of 9% in 2024, vs VA consensus at 8.8%, ODDO BHF at 9.0%), the group has set even more ambitious targets for 2029 (sales growth of 20-40%...
- Arnaud Autier
- Pierre Tegner
Pernod Ricard : A relatively uninspiring Q1 2024-25 for those who are ...
>Neutral rating maintained and target price unchanged at € 140 - To play the recovery in China and/or the US, investors will probably not favour the French spirits group, which is underexposed to these two markets compared to peers (30% of sales vs +40% for Diageo (Outperform) and +60% for Rémy Cointreau (Outperform)). In addition, its other growth drivers (India, Europe, emerging markets) are not yet fully playing their role in supporting growth in Q1 2024-25 when, a...
- Michael B. Schäfer
Covestro AG : Formal offer launched by ADNOC, as expected
>Offering at € 62/share, 50%+1 minimum acceptance, all else untouched - ADNOC yesterday officially launched a voluntary takeover bid for Covestro, offering € 62/share, in line with long-term speculations and highlighted by Covestro management as a ‘good starting point for discussion’ back in June 2024. The minimum acceptance rate was set at 50%+1 share. The investment agreement between Covestro and ADNOC includes a broadly unchanged organizational and governance stru...
- Arnaud Autier
- Pierre Tegner
Pernod Ricard : Un T1 24/25 peu engageant pour qui attend la reprise
>Neutre maintenu et OC maintenu à 140 € - Pour jouer la reprise en Chine et/ou aux US, les investisseurs ne privilégieront sans doute pas le groupe de spiritueux français, sous-exposé à ses deux marchés par rapport à ses pairs (30% du CA vs +40% pour Diageo (Surperformance) et +60% pour Rémy Cointreau (surperformance)). En outre, ses autres moteurs de croissance (Inde, Europe, émergents) ne jouent pas encore pleinement leur rôle de soutien à la croissance au T1 24/25 ...
- Geoffroy Michalet
Bureau Veritas : Vers un T3 toujours très dynamique, et une fin d’anné...
>Un T3 très proche de T2, avant un T4 proche du T1 sur l’organique ? - Le groupe publiera son CA T3 le 23 octobre 2024 (après bourse). Après un contact société, nous affinons nos prévisions. Dans l’ensemble, nous avons retenu un message cohérent avec celui véhiculé lors de la publication du S1. Pour le T2, nous retenons une hypothèse très proche de celle du T2, légèrement au-dessus de 10% de croissance organique (10.3%e vs 10.4% au T2). Notre attente pour le T4, à 8.0...
- Fehmi Ben Naamane
- Johanna Jourdain
Carnival : Normalisation ongoing, still not much visibility on 2025 (p...
>Q3 figures slightly ahead of expectations. Excellent pricing trend - Carnaval turned in excellent quarterly figures, with figures just beating the company’s guidance and analyst forecasts. In detail, we note very strong revenue growth of 15% y-o-y, lifted by prices which showed an increase of 8.7% in constant dollars in the quarter (vs guidance of +8.0%) vs 12% in Q2 and 18% in Q1. EBITDA jumped 27% y-o-y to $ 2.82bn, despite robust revenue growth, reflecting good co...
- Anthony Dick
- Michael Foundoukidis
TRATON : Feedback CMD : une equity story toujours parmi les plus attra...
>Une feuille de route claire pour une poursuite de l’amélioration opérationnelle - TRATON a tenu un CMD hier, l’occasion d’actualiser sa feuille de route pour les cinq prochaines années. Alors qu’il devrait être en mesure d’être proche, voire d’atteindre, les objectifs fixés lors du dernier plan émis en 2022 (qui, pour rappel, visait l’atteinte d’une marge d’EBIT de 9% en 2024, vs css VA 8,8%, ODDO BHF 9,0%), le groupe présente des objectifs 2029 encore plus ambitieu...
- Cor Kluis
Ageas : Targets for 2027 realistic, continuing to look for acquisition...
>Conclusion: Targets for 2027 realistic, continuing to look for acquisitions - The three new presented financial targets of the Ageas ‘Elevate27’ plan for 2024-2027 were quite in line with our estimates, so we do not have to make any material changes to our Ageas model estimates. The targets are realistic, and the main uncertainty remains around the dividend upstreaming from China which they did not estimate too material anyway. We expect that Ageas will continue its ...
- Fehmi Ben Naamane
- Johanna Jourdain
Carnival : Normalisation en cours, encore très peu de visibilité sur 2...
>Un T3 2024 légèrement au-dessus des attentes. Très bonne tenue des prix - La publication trimestrielle de Carnival aura été de très bonne facture, avec des chiffres qui ont légèrement surpassés, aussi bien les guidances société, que les attentes des analystes. Dans le détail, on notera la très forte croissance des revenus de 15% yoy, portés par les prix qui progressent de 8.7% à dollar constant sur le trimestre (vs une guidance à +8.0%) contre une hausse de 12% au T2...
EQS-News: TRATON GROUP setzt sich ambitionierte Ziele
EQS-News: TRATON SE / Schlagwort(e): Kapitalmarkttag TRATON GROUP setzt sich ambitionierte Ziele 01.10.2024 / 13:00 CET/CEST Für den Inhalt der Mitteilung ist der Emittent / Herausgeber verantwortlich. IR-Mitteilung TRATON GROUP setzt sich ambitionierte Ziele Für das Jahr 2029 strebt die TRATON GROUP eine bereinigte Operative Rendite von 9 bis 11 % an Im Zeitraum von 2024 bis 2029 soll der Umsatz um 20 bis 40 % zulegen Die Nettoverschuldung soll im Zeitraum bis 2029 vollständig abgebaut werden Dank steigendem Konzernergebnis soll bei einer konstanten Ausschüttungsquo...
EQS-News: TRATON GROUP announces ambitious goals
EQS-News: TRATON SE / Key word(s): Capital Markets Day TRATON GROUP announces ambitious goals 01.10.2024 / 13:00 CET/CEST The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this announcement. IR release TRATON GROUP announces ambitious goals The TRATON GROUP aims at an adjusted operating return on sales of 9 to 11% for 2029 Sales revenue is expected to grow by 20 to 40% over the period 2024 to 2029 The net financial debt is expected to be fully repaid by 2029 Profitable growth leading to increasing shareholder return, dividend payout ratio of 30 to 40% of net incom...
- Carole Braudeau
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