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Lynn Hautekeete ... (+2)
  • Lynn Hautekeete
  • Wim Lewi

Real Asset Conference Soundbites 19-20 March 2024

This note gathers feedback from the group meetings and the break-out sessions. In total 23 companies presented in group meetings and/or break-out sessions. More than 100 guests found their way to the venue and some more followed virtual meetings. Physical attendance is clearly on the rise after the COVID disruption. Investing remains a people's business. The 4 break-out sessions made for informative additions to the C-level meetings and a nice platform for discussion. Tuesday morning concentrate...

Research Team
  • Research Team

WOOD Daily: PL Banks Sector Update; KAP LI; JAHEZ AB; BRD RO; MGROS TI

HEADLINES: • Polish Banks: not done yet (PKO BP, Bank Pekao, Santander BP, mBank, ING BSK, Bank Millennium, Alior Bank, Bank Handlowy) • Kazatomprom: digging the margins (stays BUY) • Jahez: mixed 2023 financial results NEUTRAL • BRD-GSG: publishes 2024 budget NEUTRAL • Migros: BoD to propose DPS of TRY 6.904 NEUTRAL • Short News (M, BRISA)

Marta Jezewska-Wasilewska ... (+2)
  • Marta Jezewska-Wasilewska
  • Miguel Dias

Polish Banks: not done yet (PKO BP, Bank Pekao, Santander BP, mBank, I...

We keep our constructive view on the Polish banks. We admit that the upside we see is far less than the share price performance last year (WIG Bank index up 119% in the LTM). However, we cannot ignore the single-digit P/Es (our sector median 2024E P/E at 8.3x), in combination with the falling cost of equity, which is, in part, the result of improved sentiment in the country and improving growth expectations. All this is topped up with generous dividend payments this year. The solid earnings outl...

Wim Lewi
  • Wim Lewi

KBCS Real Assets Conference Book 2024

This conference book is your guide to the KBCS Real Assets Conference 2024. It offers a program, an intro to the break-out sessions and company profiles with financial data and some useful info. The break-out sessions aim to educate and contemplate on certain trends. Last year we hosted “Energy as a business”. This year, we offer 4 break-outs on hot topics.

Baptiste Salaville ... (+3)
  • Baptiste Salaville
  • Jerôme Bodin
  • Steven Boumans

ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 18/03/2024

We are downgrading our recommendation on Vidrala to Underperform from Neutral and set our target price at € 96 (+4% vs previous € 92, DCF: 8.4x implied EV/EBITDA 2024e vs historical average of 9.2x and 6.1x of peer group). While the group will be able to outgrow the industry thanks to the consolidation of Vidroporto in Brazil (16% of the group’s EBITDA) and despite the divestment in Italy (8% of 2023 EBITDA), we believe its organic earnings profile will slightly deteriorate considerin...

Baptiste Salaville ... (+3)
  • Baptiste Salaville
  • Jerôme Bodin
  • Steven Boumans

ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 03/18/2024 Date Performance sin...

We are downgrading our recommendation on Vidrala to Underperform from Neutral and set our target price at € 96 (+4% vs previous € 92, DCF: 8.4x implied EV/EBITDA 2024e vs historical average of 9.2x and 6.1x of peer group). While the group will be able to outgrow the industry thanks to the consolidation of Vidroporto in Brazil (16% of the group’s EBITDA) and despite the divestment in Italy (8% of 2023 EBITDA), we believe its organic earnings profile will slightly deteriorate considerin...

Baptiste Salaville ... (+4)
  • Baptiste Salaville
  • Bruno Cavalier
  • Gerardo Ibanez
  • Steven Boumans
Florent Laroche-Joubert ... (+5)
  • Florent Laroche-Joubert
  • Manuel Martin
  • CEFA
  • CREA
  • Steven Boumans

ODDO : Shifting sands at La Croisette: A recap from MIPIM 2024

>The direct investment market is still muted today, but we think real estate markets could reignite after seeing the first interest rate cuts - We visited the annual real estate conference MIPIM in Cannes last week. Although the weather was great, the mood in the investment market was still a bit muted. The changes in the real estate market leaves many investor uncertain today. It is still too early to see transactions to go up materially and pricing recovery in the ...

Jakub Caithaml
  • Jakub Caithaml

WOOD Flash – CTP: 4Q23 – yet another quarter with a strong, positive r...

CTP has reported its 4Q23 results. On the recurring lines, the quarter was broadly in line with our estimates. The key difference vs. our numbers was on the revaluation line – yet again – where CTP booked a positive gain of over EUR 220m in the quarter. This puts the total positive revaluation gain recorded during the year at almost EUR 880m.

Gerardo Ibanez ... (+2)
  • Gerardo Ibanez
  • Steven Boumans

CTP NV : FY2023 results: Outlook confirms, with profitable future grow...

>FY2024 guidance confirmed, solid development ambitions and landbank growth - CTP confirms its €0.80 - €0.82 guidance for 2024. Like for like rental growth 7.4% (9M 2023: 7.5%) and lfl revaluation of +2.0%.LTV 46.0% (Q3: 45.9% and 40-45% target), with a cost of debt of 1.95% (Q3: 1.98%), with 99.5% of the debt fixed or hedged until maturity and debt maturity of 5.3yrs.New leases continued to be signed ahead of ERV with the rent reversionary potential at...

Hilde Van Boxstael ... (+6)
  • Hilde Van Boxstael
  • Lynn Hautekeete
  • Sharad Kumar S.P
  • Thibault Leneeuw
  • Thomas Vranken
  • Wim Lewi
Wim Lewi
  • Wim Lewi

CTP FY23 Results, pipeline stays at record high

Rental income grew 20.1% to EUR 572m and benefited from 7.4% lfl growth. The EPRA EPS of 0.73 came slightly above the 0.72 guidance/our expectation. The FY24 EPS outlook is confirmed at 0.80-0.82. The LTV rose slightly to 46.0% from 45.4% at FY22 end. The occupancy on standing assets increased 1% to 94% vs FY22 end. Despite 1.2m sqm deliveries over FY23, CTP maintained its development pipeline to a record breaking GLA of 2.0m sqm. The pre-let% in the pipeline for FY24 stood at 38%, that is lower...

Research Team
  • Research Team

WOOD Daily: PKO PW; PL Macro; CTPNV NA; JMT PL; EL RO; PGE PW; DAT PW;...

HEADLINES: • PKO BP: posts solid 4Q23/2023 results NEUTRAL • Poland macro: NBP on hold, with a cautious bias • CTP: 4Q23 – yet another quarter with a strong, positive revaluation gain POSITIVE • Jeronimo Martins: 4Q23 in line with expectations; FY24E guidance for possibly deeper margins erosion NEGATIVE • Electrica: rather disappointing 2024E budget NEGATIVE • Electrica: proposes RON 0.1178 DPS and looking to issue green bonds NEUTRAL • PGE: weaker qoq EBITDA in 4Q23, but expected NEUTRAL • Data...

Jonathan Lamb
  • Jonathan Lamb

European Oil and Gas Monthly: February 2024 – return of the crack

After a slow retreat from their extraordinary highs, refining margins bounced back in February to USD 19.8/bbl, helped by the lengthened supply chain. Once again diesel is the main driver, but other product cracks also improved. Oil prices were a little higher than last month.

Research Team
  • Research Team

The Rear-View Mirror – EME markets: February mostly green, despite det...

EME Equity Market – February 2024 Market performance – a positive February, with the Polish WIG20 outperforming. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 4.2% mom in EUR terms and 3.7% mom in USD in February. The Polish WIG20 saw the strongest performance, adding 6.4% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Greek ASE (+4.2% mom), the Turkish ISE30 (+4.0% mom) and the Romanian BET (+2.6% mom) (all in EUR terms). There was a relatively muted performance in Hungary (+0.6% mom in EUR terms) and a decline in the Cze...

BRE MBANK SA
PEO BANK POLSKA KASA OPIEKI SA
JMT JERONIMO MARTINS SGPS S.A.
KRU KRUK S.A.
MOL MOL NYRT
EBS ERSTE GROUP BANK AG
CEZ CEZ AS
HTO HELLENIC TELECOMMUNICATIONS ORGANIZATION SA
YKBNK YAPI VE KREDI BANKASI A.S.
OMV OMV AG
PKO PKO BANK POLSKI S.A.
ISCTR TURKIYE IS BANKASI ANONIM SIRKETI CLASS C
KOMB KOMERCNI BANKA A.S.
BHW BANK HANDLOWY W WARSZAWIE S.A.
PZU POWSZECHNY ZAKLAD UBEZPIECZEN SPOLKA AKCYJNA
VER VERBUND AG CLASS A
SPL SANTANDER BANK POLSKA SA
BSK ING BANK SLASKI S.A.
BDX BUDIMEX S.A.
MTELEKOM MAGYAR TELEKOM TELECOMMUNICATIONS
TPS ORANGE POLSKA S.A.
PKN POLSKI KONCERN NAFTOWY ORLEN S.A.
LPP LPP S.A.
AKBNK AKBANK TAS
AKCNS AKCANSA CIMENTO
CIMSA CIMENTO SANYAI VE TICARET A.S.
LOGO LOGO YAZILIM SANAYI VE TICARET A.S.
CCC CCC SA
CCOLA COCA-COLA ICECEK A.S.
AUG1L AGROWILL GROUP AB
MGROS MIGROS TICARET A.S
APR AUTO PARTNER SA
LVC LIVECHAT SOFTWARE SA
TBCB TBC BANK JOINT STOCK CO
TPEIR PIRAEUS BANK SA
PPC PUBLIC POWER CORPORATION S.A.
CAR INTER CARS S.A.
ARCLK ARCELIK A.S.
EUR EUROCASH S.A.
GSPARK GRAPHISOFT PARK SE
GPW WARSAW STOCK EXCHANGE
11B 11 BIT STUDIOS S.A.
ALR ALIOR BANK SA
VGO VIGO SYSTEM SA
BANK OF CYPRUS PCL
WPL WIRTUALNA POLSKA HOLDING SA
BRD BRD-GROUPE SOCIETE GENERALE
TLV BANCA TRANSILVANIA S.A.
MONET MONETA MONEY BANK AS
SNG SOCIETATEA NATIONALA DE GAZE NATURALE ROMGAZ SA
SNP PETROM S.A.
PBK PATRIA BANK SA
TOFAS TOFAS TURK OTOMOBIL FABRIKASI A.S.
DIGI DIGI COMMUNICATIONS NV
SNN SOCIETATEA NATIONALA NUCLEARELECTRICA SA
TEL C.N.T.E.E. TRANSELECTRICA
ELSA SOCIETATEA ENERGETICA ELECTRICA
FP. FONDUL PROPRIETATEA S.A. GDR (REG S)
BVB S.C. BURSA DE VALORI BUCURESTI S.A.
GEB BANK OF GEORGIA
TGN SOCIETATEA NATIONALA DE TRANSPORT GAZE NATURALE TRANSGAZ S.A.
RICHT RICHTER
19XX NEPI ROCKCASTLE PLC
M MED LIFE
SFG SPHERA FRANCHISE GROUP SA
ADNOCDIST ADNOC DISTRIBUTION PJSC
EAT AMREST HOLDINGS SE
NLBR NLB GROUP
KAP NATIONAL ATOMIC COMPANY KAZATOMPROM
TEN TEN SQUARE GAMES
KSPI KASPI KZ
HUGE HUUUGE
4IG 4IG NYRT
IGN1L IGNITIS GRUPE
WPS W.A.G PAYMENT SOLUTIONS PLC
PCO PEPCO GROUP NV
ONE KAZMUNAYGAS NC JSC
KLKIM ONE UNITED PROPERTIES SA
ADNOCDRILL KALEKIM KIMYEVI MADDELER SANAYI VE TICARET AS
AROBS ADNOC DRILLING CO
7202 AROBS TRANSILVANIA SOFTWARE SA
ELPE ARABIAN INTERNET & COMMUNICATIONS SERVICES CO
SHO HELLENIQ ENERGY
4071 SHOPER SA
BOROUGE ARABIAN CONTRACTING SERVICES CO
H2O BOROUGE
AQ HIDROELECTRICA S.A.
AQUILA PART PROD COM
Research Team
  • Research Team

WOOD Daily: PBK RO; TL Macro; 4IG HB; AUG1L LH; ELPE GA; SFG RO; EAT P...

HEADLINES: • Patria Bank: strong bottom-line beat, but lacking quality • Turkey macro: 4Q GDP expands by 4% • 4iG: 4Q23 results review – solid results, with 19% yoy pro-forma EBITDA growth NEUTRAL • AUGA Group: 4Q23 – positive gross profit in all segments, but liquidity risk on the horizon • HELLENiQ Energy: 4Q23 results – dividend proposal NEUTRAL • Sphera Group: 4Q23 above our expectations POSITIVE • AmRest: key takeaways from the 4Q23 call POSITIVE • Richter: takeaways from the 4Q23 earnings ...

Research Team
  • Research Team

WOOD Daily: EBS AV; EAT PW; TXT PW; EL RO; WINE RO; AQ RO; SNN RO; TGN...

HEADLINES • Erste Bank: 4Q23 results • AmRest: 4Q23 EBITDA in line, but earnings affected by EUR 29m goodwill write-down for Sushi Shop NEGATIVE • Text: 3Q23-24 (calendar 4Q23) results – EBITDA down 4% yoy, 10% above the consensus POSITIVE • Electrica: 4Q23 results in line with expectations NEGATIVE • Purcari Wineries: 4Q23 results and 2024E outlook in line with expectations POSITIVE • Aquila Part Prod Com: earnings beat, on lower credit losses, interest income and tax rate POSITIVE • Nuclearel...

Research Team
  • Research Team

WOOD Daily: CCC PW; PEO PW; PKN PW; SOLUTION AB; ALR PW; PKO PW; PL Ba...

HEADLINES: • CCC: the boys are back in town (stays BUY) • Bank Pekao: solid 2023 profits, generous PLN 19.2/share dividend, market waiting for AGM date POSITIVE • Orlen: 4Q23 results – CCS EBITDA in line NEUTRAL • Solutions by STC: key takeaways from the 4Q23 conference call NEUTRAL • Alior Bank: potential to pay out up to 50% of its 2023 net profit as a dividend NEUTRAL • PKO BP: PFSA guides for maximum dividend payout • Polish banks: mBank, ING BSK and Santander BP receive dividend letters fro...

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