A director at Alembic Pharmaceuticals Ltd sold 300,000 shares at 0.000INR and the significance rating of the trade was 67/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two y...
. ALEMBIC PHARMA: Successful compliance at its Injectables site key to an earnings revival (ALPM IN, Mkt Cap USD1.7b, CMP INR702, TP INR590, 16% Downside, Downgrade to Sell) ALPM delivered a sharp miss in its 1QFY23 earnings due to lower US sales and considerably smaller operating leverage. EBITDA margin will historically be the lowest in 1QFY23. The Specialty portfolio within Domestic Formulations (DF) witnessed robust growth in 1QFY23. We cut our FY23/FY24 EPS estimate by 49%/26%, factor...
The general evaluation of ALEMBIC PHARMACEUTICALS (IN), a company active in the Biotechnology industry, has been upgraded by the independent financial analyst theScreener with the addition of a star. Its fundamental valuation now shows 3 out of 4 possible stars while its market behaviour can be considered as moderately risky. theScreener believes that the additional star(s) merits the upgrade of its general evaluation to Slightly Positive. As of the analysis date March 25, 2022, the closing pric...
(ALPM IN, Mkt Cap USD1.6b, CMP INR699, TP INR705, 1% Upside, Neutral) Minimal impact seen on business due to COVID-19 outbreak ** The domestic formulation (DF) segment of Alembic Pharma (ALPM) has finally shown signs of revival after four quarters of muted growth. ** ALPM remains on track in terms of finishing its large capex project (~INR25b) to enhance new dosage offerings and increase capacity requirements in the US Generics segment. We expect the benefit to be witnessed from FY22. ** We h...
(ALPM IN, Mkt Cap USD1.6b, CMP INR590, TP INR640, 9% Upside, Neutral) Major capex for US done; products filings – a WIP ** ALPM has largely completed its huge capex (~INR25b) program catering to the US generics market. Meaningful commercial benefit is likely to accrue FY22 onward. ** We raise our EPS estimate by 12.8%/2.4%/1.2%/ for FY20/21/22 to factor in the improving medium-term business prospects from limited-competition products in the US. We cut our P/E multiple to 17x (prior: 18x) to fa...
ALEMBIC PHARMACEUTICALS: Operationally a mixed bag; concerns loom over rising opex (ALPM IN, Mkt Cap USD1.5b, CMP INR552, TP INR587, 6% Upside, Neutral) Strong API traction offset by India formulations weakness: Sales grew by a moderate 8.6% YoY to INR9.2b (in-line), with strong API sales (+16% YoY; 24% of sales) offset by the muted performances by the US (+8% YoY; 33% of sales) and India formulations (-1% YoY; 33% of sales) businesses. The contrasting gross and EBITDA margin movement...
Alembic Pharmaceuticals: Growth plans for the US market on track; Momentum of filings from new site to build in FY20 onwards (ALPM IN, Mkt Cap USD1.5b, CMP INR540, TP INR615, 14% Upside, Neutral) We met the management of Alembic Pharma (ALPM) to understand the progress of its ongoing significant capex over the past 3-4 years. Key takeaways: With investments of INR12b largely over, ALPM is moving towards exhibit batches and subsequent filings of oral solids and injectable facilities. Acco...
Alembic Pharmaceuticals: US and ROW business drive earnings (ALPM IN, Mkt Cap USD1.6b, CMP INR588, TP INR615, 5% Upside, Neutral) Strong beat on earnings for the quarter: Alembic's 3QFY19 revenue shot up by ~21% YoY to INR10.2b (in line with est.), primarily led by the US business. Gross margin (GM) expanded by 260bp YoY due to superior product mix. EBITDA margin expanded by ~150bp YoY to 23.8%, primarily due to higher GM and lower R&D expenses by ~70bp (as % of sales). This was partially...
Defensive posture warranted Our outlook for global equity markets remains cautious and we expect additional weakness and consolidation, notwithstanding shorter-term countertrend rallies. Indexes throughout Europe and Asia continue their struggle to gain a firm footing, and, unsurprisingly, the same can be said of broad developed and emerging market indexes (i.e., MSCI EAFE, EM, ACWI, ACWI ex-U.S.) which are all in downtrends or have recently broken down. In light of continued global market weak...
Alembic Pharmaceuticals: One-time US sales drive better-than-expected performance (ALPM IN, Mkt Cap USD1.5b, CMP INR580, TP INR595, 3% Upside, Neutral) ALPM’s revenue increased ~43% YoY to INR11.3b (our estimate: INR9.1b) in 2QFY19, primarily led by US business. Gross margin expanded 290bp YoY (+550bp QoQ) on account of a superior product mix. EBITDA margin expanded ~410bp YoY to 26.8%, primarily due to a higher gross margin and lower employee expenses (-400bp as % of sales), partially of...
Alembic Pharmaceuticals: Pick-up seen in non-US international, domestic business; low base helps (ALPM IN, Mkt Cap USD1.6b, CMP INR568, TP INR540, 5% Downside, Neutral) Earnings lower-than-estimate despite support of low base in domestic business: ALPM’s 1QFY19 revenue increased significantly by ~33% YoY to INR8.6b (in-line), primarily driven by the non-US international and domestic businesses. Gross margin shrank 154bp YoY due to a change in product mix. However, EBITDA margin improved ~...
Alembic Pharmaceuticals: Strong growth in US business; higher tax hurts profitability (ALPM IN, Mkt Cap USD1.6b, CMP INR479, TP INR500, 4% Upside, Neutral) Strong 4Q results: Alembic's (ALPM) 4QFY18 revenue increased ~16% YoY to INR8.5b (~4% beat). EBITDA grew significantly by ~30% YoY to INR1.7b (but missed our estimate of INR1.8b), with the margin expanding to 20.3% from 18.1% in 4QFY17 and 22.3% in 3QFY18. Gross margin contracted ~400bp YoY/QoQ, mainly due to pricing pressure in the U...
Alembic Pharmaceuticals: Margins surprise positively; robust sequential improvement in US biz (ALPM IN, Mkt Cap USD1.5b, CMP INR570, TP INR555, 3% Downside, Neutral) Strong results; exceeds estimates on most fronts: 3QFY18 revenue rose 9% YoY to INR8.4b (~5% beat). EBITDA grew strongly by ~30% YoY to INR1.9b (28% beat), with the margin at 22.3% v/s 18.8% in 3QFY17 and 22.7% in 2QFY18. Margin improvement can be ascribed to a decline in R&D spend as % of sales to 11.7% v/s 15.2% in 3QFY17 (...
​Alembic Pharmaceuticals: Margins surprise positively; US biz remains under pressure(ALPM IN, Mkt Cap USD1.5b, CMP INR513, TP INR540, 5% Upside, Neutral)Strong 2Q results: Alembic’s 2QFY18 revenue declined 9% YoY to INR7.9b (~7% miss). EBITDA grew marginally by 1.2% YoY to INR1.8b (20% beat), with the margin expanding to 22.7% (v/s 20.3% in 2QFY17 and 15.6% in 1QFY18). Although the gross margin was largely flat, operating leverage led to a significant improvement in the margin (employee cost...
​Alembic Pharmaceuticals: Weak results; GST implementation impacts domestic growth(ALPM IN, Mkt Cap USD1.6b, CMP INR558, TP INR510, 9% Upside, Neutral)1Q results below expectations: Sales declined 11% YoY to INR6.5b (~15% below estimate) in 1QFY18 due to muted growth in India business (-21% YoY). EBITDA margin contracted ~580bp YoY to 15.6% due to lower domestic sales and high R&D expense (14% of sales). PAT declined 35% YoY to INR667m due to weak operating profit. We expect a recovery in 2QFY...
​Alembic Pharmaceuticals: Weak results; investment pay-off still some time away(ALPM IN, Mkt Cap USD1.8b, CMP INR606, TP INR640, 6% Upside, Neutral)4Q results below estimates: Sales increased 17.8% YoY (-4% QoQ) to INR7.4b (~7% below est.) due to muted growth in India business and lower-than-expected growth in international formulations segment. EBITDA margin contracted ~70bp QoQ to 18% due to high R&D expense (15% of sales). PAT of INR930m was flat YoY and increased 8% QoQ (missed estimate du...
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