Stitch Fix Inc: 1 director

A director at Stitch Fix Inc sold 725,002 shares at 5.778USD and the significance rating of the trade was 100/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly...

Quick hit: spectrum auction in 2025; implications for Dish and carrier...

Blair published a note this morning that anticipates the FCC receiving authority to auction the AWS-3 licenses that Dish relinquished as part of the NDAA. We think an auction could take place in 2H25. In this brief note, we cover the implications for Dish and for the other carriers.

Finally, Hope for a (Small) Spectrum Auction

One of the must-pass pieces of legislation left for this Congress is the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA). The current draft now includes a provision that would appropriate $3 billion for the Rip and Replace program designed to help small telecom companies remove and replace equipment purchased from Chinese telecommunications equipment companies, equipment Congress believes creates national security risks. The legislation funds the appropriation by allowing the FCC to conduct a one-ti...

SATS: DBS merger breaks

According to press reports, TPG will call off the merger today. For the merger to proceed, bondholders needed to agree to a debt exchange. Apparently, they have rejected the exchange. Our quick thoughts in this brief note.

3Q24 Broadband Trends: FWA capacity limits; FWA demand limits

In this iteration of “Broadband Trends” we update our FWA capacity forecast. We also touch on early signs that demand for FWA may be limited, which could prevent mobile operators from reaching capacity limits (or force them to work harder to get there). This could have a big impact on the pace of Cable subscriber growth. Finally, we reprise our work on the competitive positioning of the various operators based on relative NPS scores.

SATS: a thought on the debt exchange

In this note we show how there is at least $0.7BN of additional value on the table that could help narrow the discount DBS bondholders are being asked to accept in order to get the DTV deal across the goal line. We also run through the differences between the four segments EchoStar reports at earnings and the four filing entities they disclose to the SEC. We also update our estimates for DBS, Dish Networks and Hughes now that their 10-Q’s have been filed.

What does a failed spectrum auction mean for Dish

T-Mobile announced at earnings that they had failed to find a bidder for their 800MHz licenses. In this brief note we walk through what this might mean for spectrum values generally, and for Dish / EchoStar’s spectrum in particular.

EchoStar: Value increases following transactions (but takes longer to ...

We have updated our model for the sale of DBS and increased investment in network infrastructure and subscriber growth following the capital raise. We have also updated spectrum values for recent transactions. We are more confident than ever in the value that will be realized if spectrum is sold, though the timing of a sale has likely been pushed out. Dish could build a business that is as valuable as the spectrum, but it is tough to have confidence in this.

NSR Policy: Implications of Multiple Mergers at the FCC

It appears likely that within a few months, multiple transactions—TMUS buying US Cellular, VZ buying Frontier, and DISH and DirecTV merging—will be pending at the FCC. The transactions involve all four, or three (depending on how you think about it) of the national facilities based mobile carriers. Investors have asked, how will the presence of multiple transactions affect the process of approval for each other? We address that question in this note.

Dropping Coverage

NSR Policy: What We Learned from the DBS Deal Announcements

The big news yesterday was the announcement of a series of deals related to EchoStar, DirecTV, TPG and AT&T. Our colleagues have put out a series of notes relating to what we learned on the financial front. In this quick note we review what we learned on the antitrust/regulatory front.

EchoStar transactions – they did it!

A couple of quarters ago, Dish set out to lower debt outstanding, extend maturities on the debt that remained, and put new cash on the balance sheet. They had a deadline of November 2024, when $2BN of debt at DBS matured. As we approached the deadline, investors were growing increasingly skeptical that it could be done. They did it all, and they wrapped a sale of DBS into the process. Our thoughts on the deals and the implications for EchoStar and the broader industry in this note.

NSR Policy: Rural Areas and the DBS Merger

One issue that keeps coming up is how the government will assess the competitive impact of the DBS merger on rural areas. A New York Times article this weekend summarized the concern many have raised. In this note, we assess what the article got right and what it missed.

Dish / DTV reportedly close to a deal

Bloomberg and the WSJ both reported this afternoon that the companies are close to a deal. They claim an announcement could come by Monday. The only new data points that we picked up were that DTV is the acquirer, and AT&T and TPG will remain investors (and presumably remain in control). In addition, the stories claim that Sling will be part of the sale.

NSR Policy: The DBS Deal and the 12 GHz Band

While investors contemplate the financial implications and regulatory prospects of a potential DISH/DirecTV deal, one generally overlooked element of the transaction is the role the 12 GHz band could play in the value creation through the deal. In this note we analyze that potential which could be more disruptive to the market than generally understood; stated differently, the value of the deal could be more about spectrum than synergy.