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ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • Haakon Amundsen
  • Stian Wibstad
PREMIUM
ODL-NO Odfjell Drillin...

Cash flow and market outlook remain strong

Q1 EBITDA at USD 85m, 4% above cons. Higher capex but FCF remains very strong, as does the outlook BUY, TP of NOK 73 (75)

ODL-NO ODFJELL DRILLING
18h / 6m 18h / 6m 1 EN
ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • Haakon Amundsen
  • Stian Wibstad
ODL-NO ODFJELL DRILLING
05/15/24 May 15, 2024 1 EN
ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+5)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • Haakon Amundsen
  • John Olaisen
  • Martin Mauseth
  • Stian Wibstad
PREMIUM
PRS-NO PROSAFE
SUBC-NO SUBSEA 7 ... (+24)

Q1'24 sector preview

We expect strong Q1 reports and bullish management teams. Oil price assumptions up, near-term gas price slightly down. Best risk/reward in AKRBP, VAR, IPC, TGS, ODL, DOFG and SUBC.

PRS-NO PROSAFE
SUBC-NO SUBSEA 7
TGS-NO TGS
BWE-NO BW ENERGY
BWO-NO BW OFFSHORE LIMITED
EQNR-NO EQUINOR
AKRBP-NO AKER BP
DNO-NO DNO
VAR-NO VåR ENERGI
OKEA-NO OKEA
PGS-NO PGS
AKER-NO AKER ASA
AKSO-NO AKER SOLUTIONS
AKAST-NO AKASTOR
SEAPT-NO SEACREST PETROLEO
BORR-NO BORR DRILLING LIMITED
SDRL-NO SEADRILL
PEN-NO PANORO ENERGY ASA
DOFG-NO DOF GROUP
ODL-NO ODFJELL DRILLING
ARCH-NO ARCHER LIMITED
BNOR-NO BLUENORD
IPCO-SE INTERNATIONAL PETROLEUM CORP.
NOL-NO NORTHERN OCEAN LTD.
04/11/24 April 11, 2024 1 EN
ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • Haakon Amundsen
  • Stian Wibstad
PREMIUM
ODL-NO Odfjell Drillin...

Unique NO position is paying off

High visibility, 88% '24-26e coverage + options to at least mid-2029 and significant FCF growth towards '26. 3.5-2.7x EBITDA and 19-30% FCF yield (EV) '25/'26, BUY, TP of NOK 75 (56).

ODL-NO ODFJELL DRILLING
04/11/24 April 11, 2024 1 EN
ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • Haakon Amundsen
  • Stian Wibstad
PREMIUM
ODL-NO Odfjell Drillin...

Too low valuation on high earnings visibility

Minor estimate changes after Q4. 100% EV payback by YE'28e on high visibility. BUY, TP of NOK 56 (unchanged)

ODL-NO ODFJELL DRILLING
02/15/24 February 15, 2024 1 EN
ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • Haakon Amundsen
  • Stian Wibstad
ODL-NO ODFJELL DRILLING
02/15/24 February 15, 2024 1 EN
ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+5)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • Haakon Amundsen
  • John Olaisen
  • Martin Mauseth
  • Stian Wibstad
PREMIUM
PRS-NO PROSAFE
SUBC-NO SUBSEA 7 ... (+23)

Q4'23 sector preview

Q4 reports to show improvements and management to be bullish, but investors fear lower oil prices and poorer fundamentals ahead. Best risk/reward in AKRBP, EQNR, TGS, ODL, BORR, DOFG, SUB (all BUY).

PRS-NO PROSAFE
SUBC-NO SUBSEA 7
TGS-NO TGS
BWE-NO BW ENERGY
BWO-NO BW OFFSHORE LIMITED
EQNR-NO EQUINOR
AKRBP-NO AKER BP
DNO-NO DNO
VAR-NO VåR ENERGI
OKEA-NO OKEA
PGS-NO PGS
AKER-NO AKER ASA
AKSO-NO AKER SOLUTIONS
AKAST-NO AKASTOR
BORR-NO BORR DRILLING LIMITED
SDRL-NO SEADRILL
PEN-NO PANORO ENERGY ASA
DOFG-NO DOF GROUP
ODL-NO ODFJELL DRILLING
ARCH-NO ARCHER LIMITED
BNOR-NO BLUENORD
IPCO-SE INTERNATIONAL PETROLEUM CORP.
NOL-NO NORTHERN OCEAN LTD.
01/18/24 January 18, 2024 1 EN
ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • Haakon Amundsen
  • Stian Wibstad
PREMIUM
ODL-NO Odfjell Drillin...

Drilling top pick for 2024

75% EV payback by YE'27 on high '24-'26e coverage, and market-linked options until at least mid '29 for all rigs. 3.1-2.4x '25-26e EBITDA and 15-26% divi yield, BUY.

ODL-NO ODFJELL DRILLING
01/18/24 January 18, 2024 1 EN
ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+5)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • Haakon Amundsen
  • John Olaisen
  • Martin Mauseth
  • Stian Wibstad
PREMIUM
PRS-NO PROSAFE
SUBC-NO SUBSEA 7 ... (+22)

Crude Quarterly Q4'23: near-term, oil price is in OPEC's hands

OPEC will have to extend cuts through Q1'24 before it can increase production. Oil market fundamentals look strong medium- to long-term. Both E&P and oil service shares look highly attractive.

PRS-NO PROSAFE
SUBC-NO SUBSEA 7
TGS-NO TGS
BWE-NO BW ENERGY
BWO-NO BW OFFSHORE LIMITED
EQNR-NO EQUINOR
AKRBP-NO AKER BP
DNO-NO DNO
VAR-NO VåR ENERGI
OKEA-NO OKEA
PGS-NO PGS
AKER-NO AKER ASA
AKSO-NO AKER SOLUTIONS
AKAST-NO AKASTOR
SEAPT-NO SEACREST PETROLEO
KOG-NO KONGSBERG GRUPPEN
BORR-NO BORR DRILLING LIMITED
SDRL-NO SEADRILL
PEN-NO PANORO ENERGY ASA
DOFG-NO DOF GROUP
ODL-NO ODFJELL DRILLING
ARCH-NO ARCHER LIMITED
11/24/23 November 24, 2023 1 EN
ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • Haakon Amundsen
  • Stian Wibstad
PREMIUM
ODL-NO Odfjell Drillin...

Drilling excellence

Q3 EBITDA USD 87m, +5% vs cons. "Highly optimistic outlook" and sees rising rates. BUY, TP of NOK 51.

ODL-NO ODFJELL DRILLING
11/02/23 November 2, 2023 1 EN
ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • Haakon Amundsen
  • Stian Wibstad
ODL-NO ODFJELL DRILLING
11/02/23 November 2, 2023 1 EN
ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • Haakon Amundsen
  • Stian Wibstad
PREMIUM
ODL-NO Odfjell Drillin...

Cashflow boost as legacy contracts roll off

Increasing estimates on higher perf. bonus assumptions. FCF jump as legacy contracts and SPSs finishes. BUY, TP NOK 51 (47).

ODL-NO ODFJELL DRILLING
10/31/23 October 31, 2023 1 EN
ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+5)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • Haakon Amundsen
  • John Olaisen
  • Martin Mauseth
  • Stian Wibstad
PREMIUM
PRS-NO PROSAFE
SUBC-NO SUBSEA 7 ... (+23)

Crude Quarterly Q3'23: higher for longer

Oil market fundamentals look strong medium-to-long term. Near term, it all hangs on OPEC. Both E&P and oil service shares look highly attractive.

PRS-NO PROSAFE
SUBC-NO SUBSEA 7
TGS-NO TGS
BWE-NO BW ENERGY
BWO-NO BW OFFSHORE LIMITED
EQNR-NO EQUINOR
AKRBP-NO AKER BP
DNO-NO DNO
VAR-NO VåR ENERGI
OKEA-NO OKEA
PGS-NO PGS
AKER-NO AKER ASA
AKSO-NO AKER SOLUTIONS
AKAST-NO AKASTOR
SEAPT-NO SEACREST PETROLEO
KOG-NO KONGSBERG GRUPPEN
NOR-NO BLUENORD
BORR-NO BORR DRILLING LIMITED
SDRL-NO SEADRILL
PEN-NO PANORO ENERGY ASA
DOFG-NO DOF GROUP
ODL-NO ODFJELL DRILLING
ARCH-NO ARCHER LIMITED
09/29/23 September 29, 2023 1 EN
ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • Haakon Amundsen
  • Stian Wibstad
PREMIUM
ODL-NO Odfjell Drillin...

Continues to outperform

Q2 EBITDA USD 85m, 16% vs. consensus. Initiates quarterly dividend programme. BUY, TP of NOK 47 (45).

ODL-NO ODFJELL DRILLING
08/25/23 August 25, 2023 1 EN
ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • Haakon Amundsen
  • Stian Wibstad
ODL-NO ODFJELL DRILLING
08/23/23 August 23, 2023 1 EN
ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • Haakon Amundsen
  • Stian Wibstad
ODL-NO ODFJELL DRILLING
08/21/23 August 21, 2023 1 EN
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