Greater China Daily: Wednesday, April 24, 2024

KEY HIGHLIGHTS Strategy China And Hong Kong Property A comparison between H-REITs and C-REITs. Results China Tourism Group Duty Free (601888 CH/BUY/Rmb71.72/Target: Rmb106.20) 1Q24: Core profit grew 0.2% yoy; inventories improving; expect further gross margin expansion. iFlytek (002230 CH/HOLD/Rmb41.97/Target: Rmb40.00) FY23 and 1Q24: Earnings missed; dividend of Rmb1.00 for every 10 shares. Jonjee Hi-Tech Industrial & Commercial (600872 CH/BUY/Rmb27.55/Target: Rmb36.10) 1Q24: Results abov...

Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Wednesday, April 24, 2024

GREATER CHINA Strategy China And Hong Kong Property A comparison between H-REITs and C-REITs. Results China Tourism Group Duty Free (601888 CH/BUY/Rmb71.72/Target: Rmb106.20) 1Q24: Core profit grew 0.2% yoy; inventories improving; expect further gross margin expansion. iFlytek (002230 CH/HOLD/Rmb41.97/Target: Rmb40.00) FY23 and 1Q24: Earnings missed; dividend of Rmb1.00 for every 10 shares. Jonjee Hi-Tech Industrial & C...

MercadoLibre 1Q24 Preview

Chinese Telcos Q4 23 review: Outperformance by China Telecom; bullish...

China Telecom was the clear outperformer for service revenue growth this quarter and for the full year too, driven by an acceleration in Enterprise. Industry EBITDA trend was less upbeat in Q4 as China Mobile and Unicom declined. Both capex and dividend guidance were bullish; industry capex expected to lower by 5% while payout is expected to trend above 75% over the next three years (by 2026) for China Mobile and China Telecom.

China Property: Property transactions pull back in April; rising risks...

New-home sales in 30 cities contracted further in the second week of April. Secondhand home sales in Beijing/Shanghai/Guangzhou/Shenzhen also modestly pulled back mom in Apr 24. The rising risks of Vanke may worsen the sentiment towards quasi-SOEs and POEs. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on China’s property sector and prefer SOEs for their defensiveness. We await the 1Q politburo meeting for possible policy changes.

MELI US (Buy TP: $1,800, +28%) MercadoLibre - Investor Call feedback ...

We held a call with MercadoLibre in the run up to the Q1s (early May expected). Narrative continues to be dominated by Argentina, with the market focused mainly on EBIT (where street estimates look a shade too high still and may provide an ongoing headwind) but where focus should really be on PBT or net income i.e. after FX expatriation costs and where consensus feels better placed (though with the wrong maths we think!).

China Property: 2023 results wrap-up: Profitability deteriorates as ex...

In 2023, deteriorating profitability remained a key concern for major developers, with the deleveraging process being sluggish. For 2024: a) most management are cautious on 2024, with only COLI and Yuexiu targeting positive sales growth; b) downward pressure on margin should persist, and CR Land and COLI could take the lead in stabilising profitability; c) expect more defaults as net gearing remains high. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Cut estimate of national new-home sales growth to -10% yoy. Top pic...

China Consumer: Focus on four key theses for the sector.

In this report, we have summarised what we read from consumer companies’ 2023 results, the 2024 outlook and recent updates. We think companies: a) with overseas expansion or turnaround prospects, b) that have upside potential of improving operating efficiency, c) that will benefit from near-term catalysts (eg event-driven), and d) have increasing dividend payout will outperform. Anta, CR Beer, CTGDF, Galaxy, Haidilao, Haier, Midea and Shenzhou are our most preferred stocks. Maintain OVERWEIGHT.

Counting Clicks: March '24 Traffic Trends

Jonjee Hi-Tech Industrial & Commercial (600872 CH): 2023: In line; tar...

Jonjee reported in-line results. Management aims for a 12% yoy revenue growth in 2024, which should be achievable given the low base and a growing catering market. Jonjee targets Meiweixian’s revenue and operating profit to reach Rmb10b and Rmb1.5b respectively in 2026, implying three-year CAGR of 27% and 36%, which will be supported by: a) a better management team and employee incentive, and b) further market expansion nationwide. Maintain BUY but cut target price by 10% to Rmb36.10.

Greater China Daily: Tuesday, April 2, 2024

KEY HIGHLIGHTS Economics PMI First expansion in six months. Sector Aviation Airlines: Expecting a turnaround in profitability in 2024 with moderate international travel recovery. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Macau Gaming Mar 24 GGR up 6% mom; May 24 Golden Week a potential catalyst. Results China Feihe (6186 HK/BUY/HK$3.68/Target: HK$4.43) 2023: Results in line; healthy channel inventory and improved operating efficiency to drive growth. Upgrade to BUY. China Longyuan Power (916 HK/BUY/HK$5.4...

China And Hong Kong Property Strategy: Channel checks and observations...

In Shanghai, the new home market shrank further with divergence among regions; the secondary market saw volume rebound with a weak ASP performance. In Hong Kong, sales performance is still divergent among developers despite new home transactions growing by nearly 15x mom in Mar 23, reflecting a mild recovery of market sentiment. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top picks: CR Land, COLI, SHKP and LINK REIT.

Wedbush Morning Call - Mar 15 2024 7:00AM

Counting Clicks: February '24 Traffic Trends

China And Hong Kong Property Strategy: Monitoring the recovery of seco...

New-home sales in 50 core mainland cities weakened further in the second week of March. Second-hand home sales in Beijing/Shanghai/Guangzhou/Shenzhen are picking up while transaction volume was still lower yoy in Jan-Feb 24. Hong Kong property sales volume continues to surge. However, home buyers are still very picky and sensitive to pricing. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the China and Hong Kong property sector. Expect attitudes toward POE and quasi-SOE developers to improve in the near term.

Wedbush Morning Call - Mar 06 2024 6:55AM

China and Hong Kong Property Strategy: Divergence of policies and prop...

The 2024 NPC meeting gave little evidence of strong policy support to the property sector. New-home sales in 50 core mainland cities remain weak. Second-hand home sales in Beijing/Shanghai/Guangzhou/Shenzhen are picking up. Hong Kong saw a very strong rebound in new-home sales after the 2024 Budget Speech. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the China and Hong Kong property sector. Expect a continuous sales recovery to drive the re-rating of Hong Kong developers.

Pullback in Shares Presents Buying Opportunity; Outperform, $2,000 TP