ASEAN has long been considered one of the global auto markets with the best growth prospects, but expectations have not been met. With China in trouble and ASEAN auto sales lacklustre, Japanese automakers need to review their positioning in Asia. Analyst Julie Boote provides a short-term outlook for the ASEAN auto market, and discusses Japanese assemblers’ options within this context.
Toyota Motor impressed markets with excellent results in the last three quarters, heading towards record sales and profits in FY23. The share price rally so far this year is evidence of investors’ recognition of the company’s successful hybrid strategy. Therefore, Toyota is not only benefiting from strong earnings growth, but from a complete reassessment of how the automaker will fare in a new mobility world.
In our 2010 Japan Perspective, written close to the nadir of the bear market, we discussed what was wrong with Japan, but also what it was starting to do right. Fourteen years on, the Nikkei 225 - though not yet Topix - has hit a new all-time high. This report looks at how Japan built on those things that were going right, while also starting to address what else needed to be done, and looks at whether more is needed to be done if the market rally is to continue from here.
Once again topping expectations, Toyota produced excellent FY23 Q3 results, thanks to the triple benefits of strong volume growth, firm pricing and currency gains. Despite Daihatsu related losses to be booked in Q4, Toyota is now heading for an all-time record year for both sales and profits. However, analyst Julie Boote cautions that deteriorating market conditions could be reflected in more subdued guidance numbers for FY24.
While Japan’s automakers have upped their game in the EV space, they remain laggards on the global stage. With the EV markets now in trouble, analyst Julie Boote assesses whether or not the Japanese assemblers have been vindicated in their more cautious approach to electrification.
Tesla’s plans to halve EV manufacturing costs rely heavily on the increased use of gigacasting. Using massive aluminium die-casting machines to achieve this, however, is not only a major technological challenge, it requires substantial initial investments. Nevertheless, global automakers and suppliers are now exploring the possibilities of gigacasting, as the race for EV cost competitiveness is on. In this report, analyst Julie Boote outlines the benefits and challenges of gigacasting, examines ...
Toyota is on a roll, posting record sales and profits, with market expectations high for an earnings upgrade in FY23 Q2. While the sales and profit outlook is indeed bright, analyst Julie Boote asks whether the enthusiasm over Toyota can last.
As electric vehicles are set to replace combustion engine cars over time, established automakers need to prove they can remain competitive in this new market. In this context, much attention has been given to battery technology, but the creation of an optimal EV auto platform is just as important. Here, the jury is still out, as we are in the early development days. Analyst Julie Boote discusses how the prefect EV platform should look like and where automakers are currently positioned.
This has been an impressive earning season for Japanese automakers, with FY23 Q1 net sales and OP of the seven listed companies all surging by double-digit rates. Analyst Julie Boote takes us through the factors behind the performance and highlights the positives and negatives to consider going forward.
It has been a mixed earning season for Japanese automakers, although most are predicting strong profit growth for FY23. Despite the positive outlook, the market’s reaction has been lukewarm, due to concerns over overoptimism for sales growth and rapidly rising expenses. Analyst Julie Boote explores what the most important share price drivers could be for the seven listed automakers for FY23.
Whereas hydrogen fuel cell systems have not had a break-through in the passenger car market, the situation for the commercial vehicle market looks very different: For heavy-duty trucks in particular, FCVs are superior to BEVs when it comes to charging times, payload and driving range. In this report, analyst Julie Boote assesses the outlook for hydrogen fuel cell trucks and explains how the main global participants are positioned.
After a disappointing FY22, investors are assessing Toyota’s chances to engineer an earnings recovery in FY23. The automaker is likely to once again produce guidance numbers below consensus estimates, but will it be able to surpass its forecasts? Analyst Julie Boote evaluates the automaker’s positioning for FY23.
With news emerging that Toyota is revising its EV strategy, analyst Julie Boote spoke to the company. In this report, she sets out the nature of the changes, the impact they could have on Toyota’s business development, and what the market’s reaction is likely to be.
At the beginning of every year we publish our PSA Perspective, a report intended as a long shelf-life look at the year ahead. This year Pelham Smithers discusses Japan's economy, the outlook for the stock market, and some stand-out themes and developments for the year. These include the digital yen and the demise of live action entertainment in Japan. We also update our noted PSA Focus List of stocks. Table of Contents Overview 3 Background: 4 Japan’s Economic Outlook 5 Ja...
The transition to electrification remains the key focus for the auto industry, with EV sales performances by market and automaker being closely watched by investors. In 2022, China solidified its position as the global EV stronghold, a success that is encouraging its automakers to expand globally. Despite supply disruptions and concerns over falling subsidies and rising prices, the outlook for the EV market remains positive. In this in-depth report, analyst Julie Boote reviews major developments...
Ahead of Toyota’s Q2 results (due 1 Nov), Julie Boote looks at the impact of the currency, material costs, pricing and volumes and wonders whether management – despite the tailwind from the weak yen – might hold off on upgrading their full year forecasts.
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