NEWS SUMMARY: ACS, AENA, VIDRALA. Stock markets continue to gain ground European stock exchanges saw new gains, lacking significant drivers in a session with low trading volume again. In the STOXX 600, Retail and Utilities were the best performers, whereas cyclical sectors linked to raw materials such as Energy and Travel&Leisure saw the biggest drops. On the macro side, in Spain, March’s inflation climbed more than expected to 3.2% whereas the core data moderated more than expected to 3.3%. In...
With the exception of the US, construction markets should continue to shrink in 2024 (-2% in Europe) before rebounding on the back of lower interest rates. Against this backdrop, groups will be differentiated mainly on the basis of their resilience (geographical and price/cost mix), capital allocation (and special situations) and valuation. In this context, we are upgrading our recommendations on KONE (modernisation as an alternative source of growth to China) and Holcim (a subst...
Hormis les Etats-Unis, les marchés de la construction devraient continuer à reculer en 2024 (-2% en Europe) avant de rebondir à la faveur d’une baisse des taux. Dans ce contexte, la différenciation entre les groupes se fera essentiellement sur leur capacité de résistance (mix géographique et prix/ coûts), l’allocation du capital (et situations spéciales) et leur valorisation. Face à cet environnement, nous relevons nos recommandations sur KONE (la modernisation comme relais de la...
With the exception of the US, construction markets should continue to shrink in 2024 (-2% in Europe) before rebounding on the back of lower interest rates. Against this backdrop, groups will be differentiated mainly on the basis of their resilience (geographical and price/cost mix), capital allocation (and special situations) and valuation. In this context, we are upgrading our recommendations on KONE (modernisation as an alternative source of growth to China) and Holcim (a subst...
Hormis les Etats-Unis, les marchés de la construction devraient continuer à reculer en 2024 (-2% en Europe) avant de rebondir à la faveur d’une baisse des taux. Dans ce contexte, la différenciation entre les groupes se fera essentiellement sur leur capacité de résistance (mix géographique et prix/ coûts), l’allocation du capital (et situations spéciales) et leur valorisation. Face à cet environnement, nous relevons nos recommandations sur KONE (la modernisation comme relais de la...
NEWS SUMMARY: CAIXABANK, OHLA, REPSOL, TELEFÓNICA. The Ibex near 11,000 points European stock markets continued to gain ground in an increasing session with low trading volume. In the STOXX 600, Energy and Travel&Leisure led gains, whereas Media and Household saw the biggest drops. On the macro side, in Spain, the production price index slowed down to -8.2% vs. -3.9% prev. From the ECB, F. Panetta (Bank of Italy’s governor) admitted that the moderation of inflation brings closer the beginning o...
COMPAÑÍAS QUE APARECEN EN EL INFORME: ESPAÑA: CAIXABANK, OHLA, REPSOL, TELEFÓNICA. El Ibex testea los 11.000 puntos Las bolsas de Europa continuaron ganando altura en una jornada de menos a más y con bajo nivel de negociación. En el STOXX 600 lideraron las subidas Energía y Viajes&Ocio mientras que Media y Hogar fueron los peores con caídas cercanas al medio punto. Por el lado macro, en España el índice de precios de producción se contrajo hasta el -8,2% vs -3,9% ant. Desde el BCE, F. Panetta...
We are upgrading the energy sector to Overweight vs Neutral (excluding Oil Services, already on Overweight). The recent rebound in oil prices is set to continue, driven by short, medium and long-term factors: value, cyclical, little debt and good shareholder returns. Technical analysis reveals a strong trend that is only just beginning. GALP enters our Large Caps list; CellNex exits it. - ...
Nous upgradons le secteur énergie à Surpondérer vs Neutre (hors Oil Services déjà à Surpondérer). Le rebond récent des prix du pétrole va se poursuivre, soutenu par des facteurs à court, moyen et long terme. Le secteur dispose en outre de 4 atouts dans la configuration de marché actuelle : value, cyclique, peu endetté et bon retour à l’actionnaire. L’analyse technique révèle une tendance forte qui ne fait que commencer. GALP fait son entrée dans notre liste Large Caps ; CellNex en so...
>Outperform rating maintained - Target price raised to € 2.7 (vs € 2.6) - After the recent publication of Q4/FY 2023 results supported the relatively robust trends on the operational/balance sheet fronts, Mapfre presented its new medium-term strategic plan to shareholders at the AGM on 15 March 2023. Whilst the new plan contains no real surprises/new elements, it at least has the merit of ensuring welcomed continuity and is broadly reassuring on the group’s outlook. W...
>Opinion Surperformance maintenue – OC porté à 2.7 € (vs 2.6 €) - Après la publication récente de résultats T4/annuels 2023 venant conforter l’évolution plutôt solide sur les plans opérationnel et bilanciel, Mapfre a présenté son nouveau plan stratégique MT à ses actionnaires lors de l’AGM tenue le 15 mars dernier. Si le nouvel opus stratégique n’apporte pas de réelle surprise/nouveauté, il a pour le moins le mérite d’assurer une continuité bienvenue et de rassurer su...
We are downgrading our recommendation on Vidrala to Underperform from Neutral and set our target price at € 96 (+4% vs previous € 92, DCF: 8.4x implied EV/EBITDA 2024e vs historical average of 9.2x and 6.1x of peer group). While the group will be able to outgrow the industry thanks to the consolidation of Vidroporto in Brazil (16% of the group’s EBITDA) and despite the divestment in Italy (8% of 2023 EBITDA), we believe its organic earnings profile will slightly deteriorate considerin...
We are downgrading our recommendation on Vidrala to Underperform from Neutral and set our target price at € 96 (+4% vs previous € 92, DCF: 8.4x implied EV/EBITDA 2024e vs historical average of 9.2x and 6.1x of peer group). While the group will be able to outgrow the industry thanks to the consolidation of Vidroporto in Brazil (16% of the group’s EBITDA) and despite the divestment in Italy (8% of 2023 EBITDA), we believe its organic earnings profile will slightly deteriorate considerin...
Objetivos a 2026. Yield atractiva. Potencial de revisión al alza. En La JGA del pasado viernes MAP anunció los ejes de su plan y objetivos financieros para estos 3 próximos en los que estiman una TACC’23-26 de primas del +6% (vs +9,8% en 2023 y +3,6% consenso en 2023-2025e). ROE promedio de entre el 10 y 11%, con la meta de llegar al 11% en 2026 (vs 10% en 2023 y promedio 2023-2025e de 10,3% de consenso con un BDI’25 de c.900 M euros). De acuerdo a nuestras estimaciones, alcanzar un ROE’26 del 1...
NEWS SUMMARY: AEDAS, CAF, MAPFRE. The Ibex above 10,600 points It was a new week of gains for European stock markets despite the disappointing US inflation data although with the market betting on the beginning of rate cuts in June by the ECB. In the STOXX 600, Retail (after Inditex’s rally following its results) and Banks were the best-performing sectors whereas Real Estate and Technology ended with the biggest drops in view of the rally of sovereign debt curves. On the macro side, G. Makhlou...
COMPAÑÍAS QUE APARECEN EN EL INFORME: ESPAÑA: AEDAS HOMES, CAF, MAPFRE. EUROPA: VINCI. El Ibex rompe los 10.600 puntos Nueva semana de subidas en las bolsas Europeas a pesar de las decepciones en los datos de inflación americanos pero con el mercado apostando por el inicio de recortes de tipos en junio por parte del BCE. En el STOXX 600 los mejores sectores de la semana fueron Retail (euforia en Inditex tras los resultados) y Bancos mientras que Inmobiliario y Tecnología terminaron con las may...
>The direct investment market is still muted today, but we think real estate markets could reignite after seeing the first interest rate cuts - We visited the annual real estate conference MIPIM in Cannes last week. Although the weather was great, the mood in the investment market was still a bit muted. The changes in the real estate market leaves many investor uncertain today. It is still too early to see transactions to go up materially and pricing recovery in the ...
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