reports
- Clement Genelot
Jeronimo Martins: food deflation in sight as price war escalates
Ahead of Q1 results on 26th April, we have cut our FY 2024-26 EPS by c.5% and our PT from EUR20 to EUR19 to reflect steeper food disinflation with food deflation becoming a reality across all geographies for Q2, while the price war in Poland is escalating further. Despite adopting the right long-te
- Research Team
The Rear-View Mirror – EME markets: mixed market performances in March
EME Equity Market – March 2024 Market performance – mixed performances in March, with the Romanian BET outperforming. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined by 0.3% mom in EUR terms and 0.4% mom in USD in March. The Romanian BET reported the strongest performance, adding 7.1% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Czech PX and the Polish WIG20 (+4.1% and 1.0% mom, in EUR terms, respectively). Greece saw a relatively muted performance (-0.2% mom in EUR terms), while Hungary (-1.1% mom in EUR terms) and Tür...
EUROB EUROBANK ERGASIAS SERVICES & HOLDINGS SA
PEO BANK POLSKA KASA OPIEKI SA
JMT JERONIMO MARTINS SGPS S.A.
OPAP GREEK ORGANISATION OF FOOTBALL PROGNOSTICS SA
KRU KRUK S.A.
EXAE HELLENIC EXCHANGES SA
MOL MOL NYRT
CEZ CEZ AS
ACP ASSECO POLAND SA
HTO HELLENIC TELECOMMUNICATIONS ORGANIZATION SA
CDR CD PROJEKT S.A.
OMV OMV AG
PKO PKO BANK POLSKI S.A.
ALK ALKALOID AD SKOPJE
BHW BANK HANDLOWY W WARSZAWIE S.A.
PZU POWSZECHNY ZAKLAD UBEZPIECZEN SPOLKA AKCYJNA
VER VERBUND AG CLASS A
SPL SANTANDER BANK POLSKA SA
MIL BANK MILLENNIUM SA
BSK ING BANK SLASKI S.A.
BDX BUDIMEX S.A.
TPS ORANGE POLSKA S.A.
CAI CA IMMOBILIEN ANLAGEN AG
SAR GR. SARANTIS S.A.
LPP LPP S.A.
AKCNS AKCANSA CIMENTO
ASELS ASELSAN ELEKTRONIK SANAYI VE TICARET A.S. CLASS B
BRISA BRISA-BRIDGESTONE SABANCI LASTIK SANAYI VE TICARET A.S.
CIMSA CIMENTO SANYAI VE TICARET A.S.
LOGO LOGO YAZILIM SANAYI VE TICARET A.S.
CCC CCC SA
CCOLA COCA-COLA ICECEK A.S.
2310 SAHARA INTERNATIONAL PETROCHEMICAL COMPANY
DOM DOM DEVELOPMENT SA
AEGN AEGEAN AIRLINES SA
ENA ENEA S.A.
BFT BENEFIT SYSTEMS S.A. ALLOTMENT
MGROS MIGROS TICARET A.S
PGE PGE POLSKA GRUPA ENERGETYCZNA S.A.
TKNSA TEKNOSA IC VE DIS TICARET AS
PGSUS.E PEGASUS HAVA TASIMACILIGI AS
LVC LIVECHAT SOFTWARE SA
TBCB TBC BANK JOINT STOCK CO
OTP OTP BANK NYRT
CAR INTER CARS S.A.
ARCLK ARCELIK A.S.
FROTO FORD OTOMOTIV SANAYI A.S.
OTKAR OTOKAR OTOMOTIV VE SAVUNMA SANAYI A.S.
TUPRS TURKIYE PETROL RAFINERILERI A.S.
ECH ECHO INVESTMENT
11B 11 BIT STUDIOS S.A.
TPE TAURON POLSKA ENERGIA S.A.
ALR ALIOR BANK SA
WPL WIRTUALNA POLSKA HOLDING SA
BRD BRD-GROUPE SOCIETE GENERALE
TLV BANCA TRANSILVANIA S.A.
ETEL TELECOM EGYPT
SNG SOCIETATEA NATIONALA DE GAZE NATURALE ROMGAZ SA
H4L1 HALYK SAVINGS BANK OF KAZAKHSTAN GDR
SNP PETROM S.A.
TOFAS TOFAS TURK OTOMOBIL FABRIKASI A.S.
DIGI DIGI COMMUNICATIONS NV
DNP DINO POLSKA S.A.
NBGGY NATIONAL BANK OF GREECE S.A. ADS
SNN SOCIETATEA NATIONALA NUCLEARELECTRICA SA
TEL C.N.T.E.E. TRANSELECTRICA
ELSA SOCIETATEA ENERGETICA ELECTRICA
FP. FONDUL PROPRIETATEA S.A. GDR (REG S)
GEB BANK OF GEORGIA
TGN SOCIETATEA NATIONALA DE TRANSPORT GAZE NATURALE TRANSGAZ S.A.
RICHT RICHTER
ALPHA ALPHA BANK
SFG SPHERA FRANCHISE GROUP SA
ADNOCDIST ADNOC DISTRIBUTION PJSC
KAP NATIONAL ATOMIC COMPANY KAZATOMPROM
TEN TEN SQUARE GAMES
ALG ALLEGRO.EU SA
CZG CESKA ZBROJOVKA GROUP
INPST INPOST S.A.
PCF PCF GROUP SA
HUGE HUUUGE
WINE PURCARI WINERIES PCL
CTPNV KAZMUNAYGAS NC JSC
ONE CTP NV
GPP ONE UNITED PROPERTIES SA
AROBS GRUPA PRACUJ DA
2381 AROBS TRANSILVANIA SOFTWARE SA
9526 ARABIAN DRILLING CO.
4071 JAHEZ INTERNATIONAL CO
H2O ARABIAN CONTRACTING SERVICES CO
7203 HIDROELECTRICA S.A.
AQ ELM CO
AIRA AQUILA PART PROD COM
AIR ASTANA JSC
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: CDR PW; ALARABIA AB; CIMSA TI; TPE PW; ACP PW; RO Energy; ...
HEADLINES: • CD Projekt: 13% beat vs. our 4Q23 EBITDA forecast, on stronger revenues (CP77 IP) POSITIVE • Al Arabia Outdoor Advertising: mixed 4Q23 results NEUTRAL • Cimsa: 2023 financial results review • Tauron: reports 4Q23 EBITDA of PLN 674m , 44% lower qoq, but 83% higher yoy NEUTRAL • Asseco Poland: key takeaways from the 4Q23 earnings call NEUTRAL • Romanian energy: government adopts emergency ordinance, with amended regulations for the energy sector NEUTRAL • Bank of Georgia: receives app...
- Geoffroy Michalet
- Juan Ros-Padilla
- Robert Jan Vos
ODDO : In a decelerating inflation environment, we favour Jeronimo Mar...
Based on our local coverage from Spain, the Netherlands and France and in an environment of decelerating inflation, we set the following hierarchy: Jeronimo Martins as our Top Pick for its growth potential, while in the slow-growth retail category, we favour Ahold Delhaize over Carrefour (downgraded to Neutral) or Colruyt. - >Managing inflation & food inflation deceleration: the name of the game for 2024 - The key topic for food retailers in 2024 will be how they manag...
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
- Paul Rouviere
- Philippine Adam
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #20
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we comment on the US-Europe decoupling as US GDP growth forecasts for 2024 become in
- Jerôme Bodin
INFINEON INFINEON TECHNOLOGIES AG
EDEN EDENRED SA
JMT JERONIMO MARTINS SGPS S.A.
VIV VIVENDI SE
TEP TELEPERFORMANCE SE
HAL HAL TRUST
AMP AMPLIFON S.P.A.
01913 PRADA S.P.A.
AENA AENA SME SA
INW INFRASTRUTTURE WIRELESS ITALIANE S.P.A.
TIT TELECOM ITALIA S.P.A.
IBE IBERDROLA SA
COLO B COLOPLAST A/S CLASS B
ASML ASML HOLDING NV
HFG HELLOFRESH SE
- Jerôme Bodin
INFINEON INFINEON TECHNOLOGIES AG
EDEN EDENRED SA
JMT JERONIMO MARTINS SGPS S.A.
VIV VIVENDI SE
TEP TELEPERFORMANCE SE
HAL HAL TRUST
AMP AMPLIFON S.P.A.
01913 PRADA S.P.A.
AENA AENA SME SA
INW INFRASTRUTTURE WIRELESS ITALIANE S.P.A.
TIT TELECOM ITALIA S.P.A.
IBE IBERDROLA SA
COLO B COLOPLAST A/S CLASS B
ASML ASML HOLDING NV
HFG HELLOFRESH SE
- Juan Ros-Padilla
Jeronimo Martins : Q4 conference-call highlights
>Q4 2024 outlook: company sees some signs of food inflation abatement - As usual, management’s outlook for 2024 was unspecific in terms of sales growth or margins, they just stated that cost inflation (rent and salaries) and Food CPI deflation will pressure the margins and that management will keep the focus on growing volumes. The company stated that the group will face tough comps in FY 2024 yet they believe that the strength and differentiation of their value prop...
- Clement Genelot
Jeronimo Martins: dead money in H1 in a back-end loaded year
With food deflation now the base scenario for Jeronimo Martins in H1 while a price war is reviving in Poland, we expect sluggish momentum during H1 with low to no top-line growth and EBITDA/FCF under significant pressure. PT cut from EUR21 to EUR20. Pending a potential improvement in momentum as of
- Salome Charamalet
- Stefano Toffano
ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 03/07/2024
We are initiating coverage of Lonza with a target price of CHF 535 and an Outperform rating. As one of the world's leading contract development and manufacturing organisations (CDMO), Lonza is predestined to benefit from the sustainable drivers of this industry. The group's global presence and strong market positions in the growth areas of biologics and cell and gene therapy (CGT) will fuel double-digit sales growth and >30% EBITDA margins in the medium term. Despite significant growt...
LHA DEUTSCHE LUFTHANSA AG
JMT JERONIMO MARTINS SGPS S.A.
G1A GEA GROUP AG
RCO REMY COINTREAU SA
SCR SCOR SE
TEP TELEPERFORMANCE SE
RF EURAZEO SA
MRK MERCK KGAA
BAYN BAYER AG
TIT TELECOM ITALIA S.P.A.
BNR BRENNTAG SE
PIRC PIRELLI & C. S.P.A.
NEXI NEXI S.P.A.
AZE AZELIS GROUP NV
- Salome Charamalet
- Stefano Toffano
ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 07/03/2024
We are initiating coverage of Lonza with a target price of CHF 535 and an Outperform rating. As one of the world's leading contract development and manufacturing organisations (CDMO), Lonza is predestined to benefit from the sustainable drivers of this industry. The group's global presence and strong market positions in the growth areas of biologics and cell and gene therapy (CGT) will fuel double-digit sales growth and >30% EBITDA margins in the medium term. Despite significant growt...
LHA DEUTSCHE LUFTHANSA AG
JMT JERONIMO MARTINS SGPS S.A.
G1A GEA GROUP AG
RCO REMY COINTREAU SA
SCR SCOR SE
TEP TELEPERFORMANCE SE
RF EURAZEO SA
MRK MERCK KGAA
BAYN BAYER AG
TIT TELECOM ITALIA S.P.A.
BNR BRENNTAG SE
PIRC PIRELLI & C. S.P.A.
NEXI NEXI S.P.A.
AZE AZELIS GROUP NV
- Juan Ros-Padilla
Jeronimo Martins : Q4 2023 earnings in line
>Solid inflation-fuelled sales - The company released its Q4 sales earlier this year. Sales grew at a pace of +17% y-o-y to € 8.1bn (vs +22% in Q3) with the group’s l-f-l expanding at +10% (vs +12% in Q3). By business, Biedronka sales grew +17% to € 5.7bn, decelerating vs Q3 (+24%) as the lower LFL (+5.1% Q4 vs +13% in Q3) is partially offset by FX (+8pp) and space growth (4pp). The price impact is already negative for certain categories in Q4. Hebe: sales grew +32% t...
- Clement Genelot
Jeronimo Martins: welcome to the worst of all worlds for 2024 with def...
Jeronimo Martins has officially admitted 2024 will be a tough year marked by food deflation and a revived price war in Poland, issuing disappointing guidance for stronger margin pressure and lower FCF generation. This confirms the fears that led us to downgrade the stock in mid-January, and we now
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: PKO PW; PL Macro; CTPNV NA; JMT PL; EL RO; PGE PW; DAT PW;...
HEADLINES: • PKO BP: posts solid 4Q23/2023 results NEUTRAL • Poland macro: NBP on hold, with a cautious bias • CTP: 4Q23 – yet another quarter with a strong, positive revaluation gain POSITIVE • Jeronimo Martins: 4Q23 in line with expectations; FY24E guidance for possibly deeper margins erosion NEGATIVE • Electrica: rather disappointing 2024E budget NEGATIVE • Electrica: proposes RON 0.1178 DPS and looking to issue green bonds NEUTRAL • PGE: weaker qoq EBITDA in 4Q23, but expected NEUTRAL • Data...
- Research Team
The Rear-View Mirror – EME markets: February mostly green, despite det...
EME Equity Market – February 2024 Market performance – a positive February, with the Polish WIG20 outperforming. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 4.2% mom in EUR terms and 3.7% mom in USD in February. The Polish WIG20 saw the strongest performance, adding 6.4% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Greek ASE (+4.2% mom), the Turkish ISE30 (+4.0% mom) and the Romanian BET (+2.6% mom) (all in EUR terms). There was a relatively muted performance in Hungary (+0.6% mom in EUR terms) and a decline in the Cze...
PEO BANK POLSKA KASA OPIEKI SA
JMT JERONIMO MARTINS SGPS S.A.
KRU KRUK S.A.
MOL MOL NYRT
EBS ERSTE GROUP BANK AG
CEZ CEZ AS
HTO HELLENIC TELECOMMUNICATIONS ORGANIZATION SA
YKBNK YAPI VE KREDI BANKASI A.S.
OMV OMV AG
PKO PKO BANK POLSKI S.A.
ISCTR TURKIYE IS BANKASI ANONIM SIRKETI CLASS C
KOMB KOMERCNI BANKA A.S.
BHW BANK HANDLOWY W WARSZAWIE S.A.
PZU POWSZECHNY ZAKLAD UBEZPIECZEN SPOLKA AKCYJNA
VER VERBUND AG CLASS A
SPL SANTANDER BANK POLSKA SA
BSK ING BANK SLASKI S.A.
BDX BUDIMEX S.A.
MTELEKOM MAGYAR TELEKOM TELECOMMUNICATIONS
TPS ORANGE POLSKA S.A.
PKN POLSKI KONCERN NAFTOWY ORLEN S.A.
LPP LPP S.A.
AKBNK AKBANK TAS
AKCNS AKCANSA CIMENTO
CIMSA CIMENTO SANYAI VE TICARET A.S.
LOGO LOGO YAZILIM SANAYI VE TICARET A.S.
CCC CCC SA
CCOLA COCA-COLA ICECEK A.S.
AUG1L AGROWILL GROUP AB
MGROS MIGROS TICARET A.S
APR AUTO PARTNER SA
LVC LIVECHAT SOFTWARE SA
TBCB TBC BANK JOINT STOCK CO
TPEIR PIRAEUS BANK SA
PPC PUBLIC POWER CORPORATION S.A.
CAR INTER CARS S.A.
ARCLK ARCELIK A.S.
EUR EUROCASH S.A.
GSPARK GRAPHISOFT PARK SE
GPW WARSAW STOCK EXCHANGE
11B 11 BIT STUDIOS S.A.
ALR ALIOR BANK SA
VGO VIGO SYSTEM SA
BANK OF CYPRUS PCL
WPL WIRTUALNA POLSKA HOLDING SA
BRD BRD-GROUPE SOCIETE GENERALE
TLV BANCA TRANSILVANIA S.A.
MONET MONETA MONEY BANK AS
SNG SOCIETATEA NATIONALA DE GAZE NATURALE ROMGAZ SA
SNP PETROM S.A.
PBK PATRIA BANK SA
TOFAS TOFAS TURK OTOMOBIL FABRIKASI A.S.
DIGI DIGI COMMUNICATIONS NV
SNN SOCIETATEA NATIONALA NUCLEARELECTRICA SA
TEL C.N.T.E.E. TRANSELECTRICA
ELSA SOCIETATEA ENERGETICA ELECTRICA
FP. FONDUL PROPRIETATEA S.A. GDR (REG S)
BVB S.C. BURSA DE VALORI BUCURESTI S.A.
GEB BANK OF GEORGIA
TGN SOCIETATEA NATIONALA DE TRANSPORT GAZE NATURALE TRANSGAZ S.A.
RICHT RICHTER
19XX NEPI ROCKCASTLE PLC
M MED LIFE
SFG SPHERA FRANCHISE GROUP SA
ADNOCDIST ADNOC DISTRIBUTION PJSC
EAT AMREST HOLDINGS SE
NLBR NLB GROUP
KAP NATIONAL ATOMIC COMPANY KAZATOMPROM
TEN TEN SQUARE GAMES
KSPI KASPI KZ
HUGE HUUUGE
4IG 4IG NYRT
IGN1L IGNITIS GRUPE
WPS W.A.G PAYMENT SOLUTIONS PLC
PCO PEPCO GROUP NV
ONE KAZMUNAYGAS NC JSC
KLKIM ONE UNITED PROPERTIES SA
ADNOCDRILL KALEKIM KIMYEVI MADDELER SANAYI VE TICARET AS
AROBS ADNOC DRILLING CO
7202 AROBS TRANSILVANIA SOFTWARE SA
ELPE ARABIAN INTERNET & COMMUNICATIONS SERVICES CO
SHO HELLENIQ ENERGY
4071 SHOPER SA
BOROUGE ARABIAN CONTRACTING SERVICES CO
H2O BOROUGE
AQ HIDROELECTRICA S.A.
AQUILA PART PROD COM
- Oliver Metzger
- Thomas Zlowodzki
ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 02/27/2024
The start of the earnings season has halted EPS erosion, which was marked in Europe and more limited in the US. In 2024, EPS should grow twice as fast on the S&P 500 (+10%) vs the Stoxx 600 (+5%). In Europe, the fastest-growing sectors are travel & leisure, banks and industrials. - ...
- Oliver Metzger
- Thomas Zlowodzki
ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 27/02/2024
L’ouverture de la saison des résultats a mis fin à l’érosion des BPA, qui était forte en Europe et plus limitée aux Etats-Unis. Les BPA devraient ainsi croître en 2024 deux fois plus vite sur le S&P 500 (+10%) que le sur le Stoxx 600 (+5%). En Europe, les secteurs ayant la meilleure dynamique sont le Travel & Leisure, les Banques et l’Industrie. - ...
- Juan Ros-Padilla
Jeronimo Martins : Q4 preview: volume growth to cope with disinflation
>Q4 2023 earnings preview - JMT is due to publish its Q4 results on 6 March. The company already released it sales figure, which grew +17% y-o-y to € 8.1bn (vs +22% in Q3). We expect margin deterioration of 24bp to 7.0% (vs -24bp in Q3) as the competitive environment in all regions remains challenging while volume growth, although positive, is not sufficient to fully offset the softening food inflation. Despite this margin deterioration we expect the bottom-line to ou...
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: BGEO LN; EUR PW; BDX PW; GPW PW; PKN PW; JMT PL; DNP PW; L...
HEADLINES: • Bank of Georgia: thoughts on the Ameria acquisition POSITIVE • Eurocash: antimonopoly court waives PLN 76m fine POSITIVE • Budimex: PLN 2.3m best offers for S10 express road sections POSITIVE • Warsaw Stock Exchange: 4Q23E preview (due out tomorrow) • Orlen: 4Q23E results preview (due on 22 February) NEUTRAL • Jeronimo Martins: 4Q23E results preview – 9% yoy EBITDA growth expected (due on 6 March) • Dino: 4Q23E results preview – 16% yoy EBITDA growth expected (due on 21 March) • LPP...
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: KMGZ KZ; MOL HB; SOLUTION AB; OPL PW; H2O RO; JMT PL; EL R...
HEADLINES: • KazMunayGas: energy without the obstructions (BUY - transfer of coverage) • MOL: 4Q23 results – net income well above expectations POSITIVE • Solutions by STC: 4Q23 financial results review – miss on profitability estimates, but in line with 2023 guidance NEUTRAL • Orange Polska: key takeaways from the 4Q23 earnings call NEUTRAL • Hidroelectrica: price caps to remain in place until 31 March 2025 NEUTRAL • Jeronimo Martins: another step from Biedronka on the way to ecommerce • El...
MOL MOL NYRT
TPS ORANGE POLSKA S.A.
CIMSA CIMENTO SANYAI VE TICARET A.S.
SNN SOCIETATEA NATIONALA NUCLEARELECTRICA SA
ELSA SOCIETATEA ENERGETICA ELECTRICA
GEB BANK OF GEORGIA
KLKIM KAZMUNAYGAS NC JSC
7202 KALEKIM KIMYEVI MADDELER SANAYI VE TICARET AS
H2O ARABIAN INTERNET & COMMUNICATIONS SERVICES CO
HIDROELECTRICA S.A.
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