Entra reported weaker underlying Q1 results than we expected, as well as still-declining asset values (-2.5% QOQ) due to higher yield valuations. On increased market interest rates, we have cut our 2024–2026e FFO by c12–16%. We reiterate our HOLD, but have lowered our target price to NOK105 (115).
The Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD) was approved on 12 April, requiring the modernisation of existing real estate in the EU, and will soon enter the Official Journal of the EU. In other news, KMC Properties bought a new asset and appointed an interim CEO, JM got a new CEO, while Castellum announced a divestment and new leases, and Atrium Ljungberg kicked off Q1 reporting season. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.74% for 2024e and 5.01% for 2...
Strong cost control and an energy-cost tailwind gave a 5% PFPM beat, while the uptick in vacancy rate and negative net letting (second consecutive quarter) were key negatives. We have cut our 2025–2026e EPS by 2–3%, mainly on market interest-rate changes. We reiterate our HOLD and have lowered our target price to SEK200 (220) on a tweaked valuation yield. Benefiting from a strong hedging portfolio in 2023 (FFOPS +16% YOY, among the best in the sector), we expect muted FFOPS growth in our forecas...
We maintain a neutral sector stance, but see near-term setbacks and consider risks tilted to the downside near-term due to strong sector performance in the past month, while market interest rates have risen. We expect two years of zero NAV growth, on average, due to yield expansion, and the sector theme to be deleveraging, with limited capex. We see few potential company-specific catalysts, leaving share prices largely driven by macro factors. We consider the sector fully valued near-term, at an...
A director at Fastighets AB Balder maiden bought 5,000 shares at 76.500SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 69/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two ...
This week, Citymark announced vacancies in the Stockholm office market are now higher than during the 2007–2008 financial crisis. Selvaag Bolig (SELL, TP NOK25) released KPIs for Q1, where unsold inventory was at an all-time high. Norwegian house prices rose 0.9% in March and 5.9% YTD. Entra announced leases. Corem announced that it aims to issue bonds. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.62% for 2024e and 4.88% for 2025e.
This week, Corem, Catena and Vasakronan (which re-entered the M&A arena after a more than 5-year absence) announced property transactions, SBB saw its share price rise by 29% on the week after retiring long-term debt, and the Norwegian government unveiled a somewhat smaller budget in its latest National Transport Plan (NTP), with a weak read-across to the local construction and consultancy sector, in our view The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.54% for 2024e a...
Moody's Ratings has completed a periodic review of the ratings of Citycon OYJ and other ratings that are associated with this issuer. The review was conducted through a rating committee held on 21 March 2024 in which Moody's reassessed the appropriateness of the ratings in the context of the releva...
A director at Pandox AB sold 2,000,000 shares at 170.000SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 74/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly s...
A director at Wihlborgs Fastigheter AB bought 63,000 shares at 94.390SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 100/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two y...
There were several insider transactions this week. Also, SBB offered to buy back certain hybrid and senior bonds, and credit agencies lowered their ratings in response. Corem announced new leases, and a large Norwegian real estate syndicate was taken over by one of its bondholders. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.60% for 2024e and 4.86% for 2025e.
A director at Wallenstam AB sold 2,000,000 shares at 49.000SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 70/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearl...
We expect flattish 2024–2025 NAVps growth for our Swedish coverage, due to too-low asset writedowns in 2023, but 7% in 2026e assuming stabilised yields. We forecast a 2024–2025 FFOps CAGR of 5%, held back by: 1) maturing interest rate hedges; 2) expected rental growth slow-down; and 3) deleveraging hurting investment capacity. However, we consider this priced in at a sector NAV median discount of 27%. We maintain a neutral sector stance, and our top picks are Catena, Castellum, Nyfosa and Pandox...
Two Directors at Fabege AB bought 56,700 shares at between 84.000SEK and 85.670SEK. The significance rating of the trade was 85/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last...
Last Q4 report and other updates Q4 reporting season for our covered names concluded this week with SBB’s results. Citycon has taken over Kista and issued a bond, and we cut our target price. Balder bought back hybrid bonds, Nyfosa is evaluating strategic options for its Söderport holding, and Pandox agreed to sell DoubleTree by Hilton Montreal. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.85% for 2024e and 5.13% for 2025e.
Q4 reports flurry This week, Nyfosa reported solid Q4 results, but the market focused on it scrapping its dividend for 2023. Catena’s NAV grew by c7% QOQ in Q4, due to a landbank write-up, while Sagax reported 15% YOY PFPMPS growth for 2023. Corem also cut its dividend for 2023 and NAV dropped by 14% during the quarter. For KMC Properties, one-offs resulted in Q4 EBIT missing our estimate, while Citycon completed a share issue of EUR48.2m. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stock...
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