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Research Department
  • Research Department

IBERIAN DAILY 18 NOVEMBER + 3Q’24 RESULTS. PREVIEWS (ANÁLISIS BANCO SA...

NEWS SUMMARY: ACCIONA, ACCIONA ENERGÍA, ENDESA, GRIFOLS, MERLIN PROPERTIES, ROVI. At the end of today’s report, and during the entire results season, we will include a presentation with positive and negative results highlights and previews for the 3Q’24 results to be released over the coming days in Spain. Post-electoral phase in the US After the confirmation that the Republican Party obtained majority in the two parliamentary chambers and following some announcements or possible appointments...

Research Department
  • Research Department

INFORME DIARIO 18 NOVIEMBRE + RDOS. ESPAÑA 3T’24. PREVIEWS (ANÁLISIS B...

COMPAÑÍAS QUE APARECEN EN EL INFORME: ESPAÑA: ACCIONA, ACCIONA ENERGÍA, ENDESA, GRIFOLS, MERLIN PROPERTIES, ROVI. EUROPA: PROSUS. Incluido en el informe diario de hoy, y durante toda la campaña de resultados, incorporamos al final una presentación con los resultados destacados en positivo y negativo y previews de Rdos. 3T’24 que se publicarán en España y Europa en los próximos días. Mercados en fase post-electoral Durante la semana pasada los índices mundiales entraron en la fase post elect...

Ignacio Romero
  • Ignacio Romero

MERLIN PROPERTIES: 9M’24 RESULTS (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

3Q'24 vs. 3Q'23 Results Rental Revenues: € 125.34 M (+5.2% vs. +4.7% BS(e)); EBITDA: € 97.97 M (+8.3% vs. +2.0% BS(e)); FFO: € 82.7 M (+19.9% vs. +8.3% BS(e)); 9M'24 vs. 9M'23 Results Rental Revenues: € 373.54 M (+4.8% vs. +4.6% BS(e)); EBITDA: € 279.24 M (+3.3% vs. +1.2% BS(e)); FFO: € 230.5 M (+6.7% vs. +3.0% BS(e));

Ahmed Ben Salem
  • Ahmed Ben Salem

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 11/15/2024

Swiss-based Accelleron was formed from the spin-off of ABB’s highly profitable turbocharger division in 2022. We view the share as a promising investment on 1/ market leadership in an attractive niche, 2/ about ~40% ROCE, 3/ conversion of ~80% of EBITDA into cash, leading to fast deleveraging, and a solid base for shareholder remuneration (75% pay out), and 4/ strong long-term visibility linked to a ~75% service share, the bulk of which is recurring. Despite an already strong stock pe...

Florent Laroche-Joubert
  • Florent Laroche-Joubert

Merlin Properties : 9M 2024: FFO for 2024 should be better than expect...

>FFO per share for 9M 2024 at € 0.41 (-11.1% y-o-y), above our forecasts (€ 0.39 est.) - Merlin Properties yesterday evening reported a performance for 9M 2024 above our forecasts with FFO per share of € 0.41 € (-11.1% y-o-y) vs € 0.39 est. which includes overall growth at constant scope (l-f-l) of +2.7% in gross rental income, an occupancy rate of 95.6% (+16bp q-o-q) and broadly positive reversion: Offices (54% of gross rents in 9M 2024; l-f-l +2.5%): this trend...

Ignacio Romero
  • Ignacio Romero

MERLIN PROPERTIES: RDOS. 9MESES’24 (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

Rdos. 3T'24 vs 3T'23: Ingresos por rentas: 125,3 M euros (+5,2% vs +4,7% BS(e)); EBITDA contable: 98,8 M euros (+8,3% vs +2,0% BS(e)); FFO: 82,7 M euros (+19,9% vs +8,3% BS(e)). Rdos. 9meses'24 vs 9meses'23: Ingresos por rentas: 373,5 M euros (+4,8% vs +4,6% BS(e)); EBITDA contable: 279,2 M euros (+3,3% vs +1,2% BS(e)); FFO: 230,5 M euros (+6,7% vs +3,0% BS(e)). en la

Florent Laroche-Joubert
  • Florent Laroche-Joubert

Merlin Properties : 9M24 : l’atterrissage du FFO 2024 devrait être mei...

>FFO /action sur 9M24 à 0.41 € (-11.1 % yoy) au-dessus de nos attentes (0.39€e) - Merlin Properties a publié hier soir, une performance sur 9M 2024 au-dessus de nos attentes avec un FFO /action à 0.41 € (-11.1 % yoy) vs 0.39 €e qui inclut une croissance globale à périmètre constant (lfl) de +2.7% de ses revenus locatifs bruts, un taux d’occupation à 95.6% (+16 pb qoq) et une réversion globalement positive : Bureaux (54% des loyers bruts 9M24 ; lfl +2.5%) : cette ...

Research Department
  • Research Department

IBERIAN DAILY 15 NOVEMBER + 3Q’24 RESULTS. PREVIEWS (ANÁLISIS BANCO SA...

NEWS SUMMARY: ACCIONA, ACCIONA ENERGÍA, CAF, CAIXABANK, COLONIAL, MERLIN. At the end of today’s report, and during the entire results season, we will include a presentation with positive and negative results highlights and previews for the 3Q’24 results to be released over the coming days in Spain. ECB’s target nearly met The Euro STOXX 50 had its best day since late September, while the ECB’s meeting minutes suggested the 2% inflation target will be met earlier than expected, thus cementing t...

Research Department
  • Research Department

INFORME DIARIO 15 NOVIEMBRE + RDOS. ESPAÑA 3T’24. PREVIEWS (ANÁLISIS B...

COMPAÑÍAS QUE APARECEN EN EL INFORME: ESPAÑA: ACCIONA, ACCIONA ENERGÍA, CAF, CAIXABANK, COLONIAL, MERLIN. EUROPA: ASML, SANOFI. Incluido en el informe diario de hoy, y durante toda la campaña de resultados, incorporamos al final una presentación con los resultados destacados en positivo y negativo y previews de Rdos. 3T’24 que se publicarán en España y Europa en los próximos días. El BCE con el objetivo casi cumplido El Euro STOXX 50 tuvo su mejor día desde finales de septiembre mientras las ...

Martin Marandon-Carlhian ... (+3)
  • Martin Marandon-Carlhian
  • Stephane Houri
  • Steven Boumans

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 11/13/2024

We maintain our Outperform rating on CaixaBank, one of our Top Picks in the sector, with a higher target of € 7.2 vs € 6.7 and ahead of the CMD on 19 November. We are lifting our net income estimates by 7% for 2025-2026, to 7% above the consensus. The strategic update is set to highlight the wisdom of the business model diversification (long-term savings) to address the current transition phase on rates. Despite a solid market performance, the profile does not look to be fully reflec...

Martin Marandon-Carlhian ... (+3)
  • Martin Marandon-Carlhian
  • Stephane Houri
  • Steven Boumans

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 13/11/2024

Nous réitérons notre opinion Surperformance sur CaixaBank, l’un de nos top picks du secteur, avec un OC porté à 7.2 € vs 6.7 € et en amont du CMD du 19/11. Nous relevons nos anticipations de RN de 7% sur 2025/2026 qui ressortent 7% supérieures au consensus. L’update stratégique devrait mettre en avant la pertinence de la diversification du business model (épargne LT) face à la transition actuelle sur les taux. Malgré un solide parcours boursier, cela n’est pas pleinement reflété dans ...

Florent Laroche-Joubert ... (+3)
  • Florent Laroche-Joubert
  • Roy Külter
  • Steven Boumans

ODDO : Spain: the PSOE and SUMAR looking to abolish the SOCIMI regime

>PSOE and Sumar spring a surprise in seeking to suddenly abolish the SOCIMI regime - On Monday 11 November, the PSOE reached a tax agreement with its Spanish government ally, “Sumar”, whereby the two parties want to abolish the SOCIMI REIT regime or at least part of its tax advantages. This sudden stance, which surprised Spanish property professionals, is thus different from the position that was presented just last week, namely to “encourage the construction of affor...

Florent Laroche-Joubert ... (+3)
  • Florent Laroche-Joubert
  • Roy Külter
  • Steven Boumans

ODDO : Espagne : le PSOE et SUMAR souhaiteraient abolir le régime SOCI...

>PSOE et Sumar créent la surprise en voulant supprimer soudainement le régime SOCIMI - Ce lundi 11 novembre, le PSOE sont parvenus à un accord fiscal avec son allié au gouvernement espagnol, « Sumar », par lequel les deux partis veulent supprimer le régime SOCIMI ou au moins une partie de ses avantages fiscaux. Cette prise de position soudaine qui a crée la surprise auprès des professionnels de l’immobilier espagnol, diffère ainsi de la position qui était encore mise ...

Christophe Chaput ... (+3)
  • Christophe Chaput
  • Florent Laroche-Joubert
  • Steven Boumans

ODDO : The recovery is only beginning and the best is yet to come

The rate cut carried out and yet to come (ECB: -125bp to -150bp to come by end-2025e) is a real driver for listed real estate and creates the conditions enabling it to outperform. In this context, we are lifting 23 target prices for the 42 stocks covered. Covivio, CTP, Merlin Properties, URW, Vonovia and Xior Student Housing are now our Top Picks. Aedifica (Outperform vs Neutral) should also benefit. Lastly, we are lowering Care Property to Neutral and SFL to Underperform. - >...

Christophe Chaput ... (+3)
  • Christophe Chaput
  • Florent Laroche-Joubert
  • Steven Boumans

ODDO : La reprise ne fait que commencer et le meilleur est à venir

La baisse de taux actée et à venir (BCE : -125 à 150 pb à venir d’ici fin 2025e) agit comme un véritable catalyseur pour l’immobilier côté et crée les conditions lui permettant de surperformer. Dans ce cadre, nous relevons 23 objectifs de cours sur 42 valeurs suivies. Covivio, CTP, Merlin Properties, URW, Vonovia et Xior Student Housing constituent désormais nos top picks. Aedifica (Surperformance vs Neutre) devrait également en bénéficier. Enfin, nous abaissons Care Property à N...

Florent Laroche-Joubert
  • Florent Laroche-Joubert

Merlin Properties : The way is now clear to accelerate in data centres...

>Success of capital increase of € 921m which clears the way for the launch of phase 2 in data centres - Merlin Properties is broadly strengthened by its capital increase of € 921m launched on 23 July in the form of asset buybacks (ABB) and which aims to finance the group's future growth:The 93,954,149 new shares issued (i.e. c. 20% of the capital before ABB) were very rapidly subscribed to by institutional investors at a price of € 9.80 (i.e. a discount of 4.7% v...

Michael B. Schäfer ... (+2)
  • Michael B. Schäfer
  • Thomas Zlowodzki

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 07/30/2024

With regard to our list of recommended stocks, i) we are adding: adidas, Merck KGaA, Santander, Technip FMC, Unilever and Vivendi , ii) we are maintaining ASMi, Atlas Copco, AXA, Deutsche Boerse, GSK, Holcim, Inditex, Lonza, Sodexo, RELX and Rolls-Royce, iii) we are removing: BASF, Nemetschek, Nestlé and TUI AG. - ...

Michael B. Schäfer ... (+2)
  • Michael B. Schäfer
  • Thomas Zlowodzki

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 30/07/2024

Au sein de notre liste de valeurs recommandées, i) nous faisons entrer : adidas, Merck KGaA, Santander, Technip FMC, Unilever et Vivendi, ii) nous maintenons ASMi, Atlas Copco, Axa, Deutsche Boerse, GSK, Holicm, Inditex, Lonza, Sodexo, RELX et Rolls-Royce, iii) nous faisons sortir : BASF, Nemetschek, Nestlé, TUI AG. - ...

Florent Laroche-Joubert
  • Florent Laroche-Joubert

Merlin Properties : La voie est libre dorénavant pour accélérer dans l...

>Succès de l’augmentation de capital de 921 M€ qui ouvre la voie au lancement de la phase 2 dans les datacenters - Merlin Properties ressort globalement renforcé de son augmentation de capital de 921 M€ réalisée le 23 juillet sous forme d’ABB et qui vise à financer la croissance future de la société :Les 93 954 149 nouvelles actions émises (i.e. c. 20% du capital avant ABB) ont été très rapidement souscrites par des investisseurs professionnels à un prix de 9.80 ...

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