AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 22/11/2024

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU)C: Portion of deeper target at Welchau flows water on test – Two intervals (total of ~16 m) in the Steinalm formation. were tested at a stable rate (natural flow) of 240-290 bbl/d of drilling mud, likely contaminated formation water and some oil traces. Gas was initially observed at surface. While the achieved flow rate highlights the high permeability of the natural fractures, the absence of hydrocarbons is disappoi...

Production ramping up, dividends will follow

Panoro Energy ASA (OSE: PEN): Production reaching 13 mbbl/d. Two high ...

• There were no surprises in the 3Q24 accounts. • Since last week, WI production has increased from 12.5 mbbl/d to 13 mbbl/d. • Gross production in Gabon continues to be ~40 mbbl/d. Three further workovers for ESP installation are planned during 4Q24. The nameplate capacity of the FPSO could be increased by 10% to 44 mbbl/d. • Gross production in EG stands at 29 mbbl/d. The second infill well is starting production and could take overall gross production in EG to 35 mbbl/d. This new well could ...

Q3: Production now above 13kboe/d

Q3 EBIT of USD 10m vs ABGSCe of USD 10m. Production above 13kboe/d, cons FY'24 EBITDA looks ~14% too high. Minor news: negative revisions for Q4 mitigated by potential increase to '25 production.

Valuation update

In this note, we show updated valuation statistics for the E&P sector

Panoro Energy (Buy, TP: NOK38.00) - Exiting the year on a high

We forecast USD17m in Q3 EBITDA (no reliable consensus). While 2024 has been hampered by operational issues, we still see 2024 exit production of ~13kboed, with Dussafu already producing at a plateau of 40kboed (gross) in mid-November. Thus, with most hiccups hopefully over, we believe Panoro is well positioned for significant FCF expansion in 2025–2026e, supported by production growth and a decline in capex. We reiterate our BUY but have cut our target price to NOK38 (39), factoring in increase...

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 15/11/2024

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Arrow Exploration (AXL LN/CN)C; Target price of £0.70 per share: 1.9 mbbl/d at latest CN well. Water disposal infrastructure operational. High net cash – The fifth horizontal well at Carrizales Norte (CNB HZ-6) is producing 1.9 mbbl/d of oil (0.95 mbbl/d net to Arrow) with a water cut of 31%. The well reached TD ~ one month ago. After ~1 month of production, CNB HZ-1 and CNB HZ-3 were also producing >30% water with ~1 mbbl/d oil produ...

US shale: limited revisions and colour on 2025 activity levels

Our Q3 survey of the US shale universe showed limited revisions to guidance for 2024, and we still expect muted 2024 production growth of ~4–5% YOY (+8% YOY in 2023). Our survey also suggests capex down ~2% YOY, as the companies continue to guide for flat activity. Limited colour was provided on 2025 activity levels and associated capex, which we will know more about in the Q4 results season. For Q3, our universe marginally underspent its cash flow, albeit with net debt continuing to build QOQ a...

BlueNord (Buy, TP: NOK680.00) - The next chapter

Following the scheduled Tyra ramp-up to plateau production towards year-end, we expect the first dividend announcement in January. For 2025–2026, we calculate DPS of NOK352, equal to ~60% of its market cap. Moreover, we see a compelling equity story after 2026e, supported by the Danish Continental Shelf (DCS), a high-value basin with strong prospectivity. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to NOK680 (610).

Energy Morning - 13 November 2024

Valuation update

In this note, we show updated valuation statistics for the E&P sector.

Energy Morning - 12 November 2024

Renewable Weekly – 11 November 2024

Energy Morning - 11 November 2024

Valuation and market update

In this note, we show updated valuation and market statistics for the Offshore Drilling sector.

Valaris (Buy, TP: USD70.00) - Patience remains key

With deepwater uncertainty and idle time extending well into 2026, consensus looks (far) too optimistic to us (we are 21% below on both 2025–2026e EBITDA). Jackup market headwinds have also made us lower our dayrate expectations, and we see a risk of fewer of its rigs working in Saudi Arabia in 2025–2026. With the cash-flow story still on the horizon, we believe focus should be on 2026 and beyond, helping to close the NAV gap and intrinsic value to crystallise. We reiterate our BUY but have cut ...

Weekly news, topics & discussion

This week, DNO reported Q3 underlying results fairly in line with our estimates. It also introduced a long-term production guidance for its North Sea operations, which we find a bit too aggressive. Still, we estimate the North Sea net production to increase from 15kboed in 2024 to >20kboed in 2027. In other news, Equinor acquired a 11.8% stake from Sval Energi in the Halten East development, and BlueNord’s preliminary October production figures were at the lower end of its Q4 base production gui...

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 01/11/2024

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; Target price of A$0.70 per share: Approvals to start well testing at Welchau received. Rig and test equipment mobilized – All necessary approvals have been received to commence flow testing operations on the Welchau-1 discovery well for the period from 30 October 2024 until 31 March 2025. A workover rig has been mobilised to the Welchau-1 drill site with flow testing due to commence during the second half of Novem...

Energy Morning - 7 November 2024