Impressive Q1

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Europe

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Trivium, TGS ASA, Intrum, Axactor, Virgin Media O2, Telecom Italia, Lottomatica (formerly Gamenet), Huhtamaki, Techem, Victoria, Teva, Encore Capital (formerly Cabot), Air Baltic

Seismic contract tracker - TGS wins 4D job

TGS (Buy, TP: NOK110.00) - Exposed to spending cuts

We maintain our positive view on TGS; however, we have cut our 2025–2026e FCF by 20%, as we believe oil companies’ capex cuts could have a meaningful impact on seismic spending and TGS’s revenues. That said, near-term FCF should be supported by self-help elements from the PGS merger, and we find decent valuation support, with the stock trading at a ~15% FCF yield and ~9% dividend yield on 2025e. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to NOK110 (140).

MTG (Buy, TP: SEK130.00) - Encouraging organic growth trend

MTG’s 2025 organic growth outlook of 3–7% YOY was a key positive in an otherwise difficult market for mobile gaming, in our view. However, the adj. EBITDA margin guidance of 21–24% fell shy of our expectation. We have only finetuned our 2025–2026e sales, but cut adj. EBITDA by 18–7% on the margin outlook, with some upside potential if synergies from the Plarium acquisition should materialise in 2025. We reiterate our BUY, but have lowered our target price to SEK130 (140).

Energy Morning - 30 April 2025

Muted 2025 growth expectations

Following Q1 earnings calls by some of the oil service companies, 2025 outlooks appear more challenging than previously. Baker Hughes expects international upstream spending to decline by mid- to high-single digits, while Halliburton sees its international revenues flat to slightly down. Furthermore, Weatherford expects 2025 international revenue to decline by low double- to mid-double digits. Precision Drilling flagged additional rig suspensions by Saudi Aramco, and SLB highlighted a slow start...

Alimak (Hold, TP: SEK125.00) - Order beat, earnings miss

We view the Q1 results as soft despite strong order growth of 16% organically YOY, with all divisions contributing to the beat. A miss on adj. EBITA was driven by lower sales and a weak Facade Access (FA) margin of 9.5% due to legacy projects and lower utilisation. Alimak stated that investment decisions for new tall buildings would continue to be postponed, and legacy projects phased out through 2025. We reiterate our HOLD, but have cut our target price to SEK125 (140), having lowered our 2025–...

ENI capex cut but maintains shareholder returns

Driven by macro headwinds and uncertainty around trade tariffs, ENI was the first large oil company to introduce capex cuts for 2025, contributing to a more challenging business environment for oil services. Over the past five years, we estimate ENI to have been the oil major with strongest offshore spending growth, and it has been considered active and opportunistic while others have been more conservative. Hence, we see its reduction as a soft datapoint for oil services. ENI has optimised its ...

Valmet (Buy, TP: EUR32.00) - Solid beats in ‘stable businesses’

We have made only minor estimate changes following the Q1 results, and reiterate our BUY and EUR32 target price. We continue to find the valuation attractive at a 2026e EV/EBIT of below 9x.

Another abrupt change

The US Trade Representative on 17 April published revised US port fees with significant changes to the initial proposal based on industry feedback. In its current form, the fees will primarily discourage use of Chinese-controlled maritime trade services to the US, and directly affect the use of Chinese-built vessels in US ports (with several considerable exemptions to avoid harm to US trade). The previous broader fees based on fleet composition and share of Chinese-built vessels has been scrappe...

MTG (Buy, TP: SEK140.00) - First quarter including Plarium

Q1 will be the first quarter including the transformative Plarium acquisition (consolidated from 1 February), set to roughly double MTG’s revenue and adj. EBITDA. Our impression is organic growth trends have held up alright in Q1; however, the recent strengthening of the SEK has prompted a ~9% cut to our 2025–2026e revenue and EBITDA. We have lowered our target price to SEK140 (150) but reiterate our BUY.

Flex LNG (Buy, TP: NOK320.00) - Set to hold course on 14% DPS yield

With ~90% of days fixed for 2025 and 2026, and a cash balance of 11x its ‘regular’ quarterly dividend, Flex LNG’s USD0.75 DPS looks insulated from market storm, offering a compelling 14% yield. Additionally, we expect freight markets to recover from 2026, with current newbuild prices implying a long-term TC contract of cUSD90k/day to justify the investment, in our opinion supporting a firm long-term rate outlook. We reiterate our BUY but have cut our target price to NOK320 (340).