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Jan Frederik Slijkerman
  • Jan Frederik Slijkerman

Telefonica: A new strategic plan/Before the CMD, grand plans were disc...

Last week, Telefonica held its capital markets day and presented its long-awaited new strategy and 3Q25 results. Ahead of the CMD, a radical change in direction, including M&A, was discussed in the media but any such grand plans were missing from its new Strategic Plan. Notably, Telefonica has cut its dividend, but this seems more of a way to deal with weaker free cash flow than a way to cut indebtedness. Also, its outlook for growth remains muted. We are disappointed by Telefonica's outlook for...

Research Department
  • Research Department

IBERIAN DAILY 11 NOVEMBER + 3Q'25 RESULTS. HIGHLIGHTS AND REST OF PREV...

NEWS SUMMARY: SANTANDER. At the end of today’s report, and during the entire results season, we will include a presentation with positive and negative results highlights and previews for the 3Q’25 results to be released over the coming days in Spain. Expectations about the end of the US shutdown next Friday fuelled stock markets Several Democratic senators voted in the end in favour of maintaining the government funding through 30 January without obtaining any health concessions by the Republ...

Research Department
  • Research Department

INFORME DIARIO 11 NOVIEMBRE + RDOS. ESPAÑA Y EUROPA 3T’25. IDEAS DESTA...

COMPAÑÍAS QUE APARECEN EN EL INFORME: ESPAÑA: SANTANDER. EUROPA: MUNICH RE, NOKIA. Incluido en el informe diario de hoy, y durante toda la campaña de resultados, incorporamos al final una presentación con los resultados destacados en positivo y negativo y previews de Rdos. 3T’25 que se publicarán en España y Europa en los próximos días. La expectativa de que termine el shutdown en EE.UU. el viernes anima a las bolsas Varios senadores demócratas terminaron claudicando y votando a favor de mante...

Research Department
  • Research Department

IBERIAN DAILY 10 NOVEMBER + 3Q’25 RESULTS. HIGHLIGHTS AND REST OF PREV...

NEWS SUMMARY: ALMIRALL, GREENING, TALGO, VISCOFAN. At the end of today’s report, and during the entire results season, we will include a presentation with positive and negative results highlights and previews for the 3Q’25 results to be released over the coming days in Spain. Tech stocks raise doubts on markets It was a week of drops on both sides of the Atlantic, with the IBEX falling below 16,000 against a backdrop of growing uncertainty surrounding company valuations, especially those linke...

Research Department
  • Research Department

INFORME DIARIO 10 NOVIEMBRE + RDOS. ESPAÑA Y EUROPA 3T’25. IDEAS DESTA...

COMPAÑÍAS QUE APARECEN EN EL INFORME: ESPAÑA: ALMIRALL, GREENING, TALGO, VISCOFAN. EUROPA: AIRBUS, UNICREDIT. Incluido en el informe diario de hoy, y durante toda la campaña de resultados, incorporamos al final una presentación con los resultados destacados en positivo y negativo y previews de Rdos. 3T’25 que se publicarán en España y Europa en los próximos días. Las tecnológicas hacen dudar al mercado, pero el final del shutdown apunta a rebote Semana de caídas a ambos lados del Atlántico, co...

Luis Arredondo
  • Luis Arredondo

SACYR: 3Q’25 RESULTS (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

3Q'25 vs. 3Q'24 Results Sales: € 1.175 Bn (2.8% vs. 3.1% BS(e) and 1.3% consensus); EBITDA: € 371 M (27.7% vs. 23.0% BS(e) and 20.1% consensus); EBIT: € 273 M (1.2% vs. 15.2% BS(e) and 20.2% consensus); Net Profit: € 31 M (41.5% vs. 35.1% BS(e) and 70.7% consensus). 9M'25 vs. 9M'24 Results Sales: € 3.412 Bn (4.6% vs. 4.7% BS(e) and 4.0% consensus); EBITDA: € 1.018 Bn (7.4% vs. 6.0% BS(e) and 5.1% consensus); EBIT: € 737 M (-15.2% vs. -10.9% BS(e) and -9.3% consensus); Net Profit: € 62 M (-16.2%...

Luis Arredondo
  • Luis Arredondo

SACYR: RDOS. 3T’25 (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

Rdos. 3T'25 vs 3T'24: Ventas: 1.175 M euros (2,8% vs 3,1% BS(e) y 1,3% consenso); EBITDA: 371 M euros (27,7% vs 23,0% BS(e) y 20,1% consenso); EBIT: 273 M euros (1,2% vs 15,2% BS(e) y 20,2% consenso); BDI: 31 M euros (41,5% vs 35,1% BS(e) y 70,7% consenso). Rdos. 9M'25 vs 9M'24: Ventas: 3.412 M euros (4,6% vs 4,7% BS(e) y 4,0% consenso); EBITDA: 1.018 M euros (7,4% vs 6,0% BS(e) y 5,1% consenso); EBIT: 737 M euros (-15,2% vs -10,9% BS(e) y -9,3% consenso); BDI: 62 M euros (-16,2% vs -18,2% BS...

Research Department
  • Research Department

IBERIAN DAILY 07 NOVEMBER + 3Q'25 RESULTS. HIGHLIGHTS AND REST OF PREV...

NEWS SUMMARY: ACS, AMADEUS, CELLNEX, IAG, SACYR. At the end of today’s report, and during the entire results season, we will include a presentation with positive and negative results highlights and previews for the 3Q’25 results to be released over the coming days in Spain. Doubts persist With the results campaign entering the final stretch, the main European indices closed with losses, with the IBEX standing out as the best performer, remaining at around 16,100. In the STOXX 600, Basic Mate...

Research Department
  • Research Department

INFORME DIARIO 07 NOVIEMBRE + RDOS. ESPAÑA Y EUROPA 3T’25. IDEAS DESTA...

COMPAÑÍAS QUE APARECEN EN EL INFORME: ESPAÑA: ACS, AMADEUS, CELLNEX, IAG, SACYR. EUROPA: BAYER. Incluido en el informe diario de hoy, y durante toda la campaña de resultados, incorporamos al final una presentación con los resultados destacados en positivo y negativo y previews de Rdos. 3T’25 que se publicarán en España y Europa en los próximos días. Se mantienen las dudas Con la campaña de resultados entrando en su recta final, los principales índices europeos cerraron con pérdidas, destacando...

Luis Arredondo
  • Luis Arredondo

GRIFOLS: 3Q'25 RESULTS (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

3Q'25 vs. 3Q'24 Results Sales: € 1.865 Bn (+4.0% vs. +4.0% BS(e) and +3.0% consensus); EBITDA: € 482.0 M (+4.3% vs. +2.6% BS(e) and +1.1% consensus); EBIT: € 354.2 M (+11.7% vs. +9.5% BS(e) and +6.6% consensus); Net Profit: € 126.96 M (+144.2% vs. +129.3% BS(e) and +149.1% consensus); 9M'25 vs. 9M'24 Results Sales: € 5.542 Bn (+5.8% vs. +5.8% BS(e) and +5.5% consensus); EBITDA: € 1.358 Bn (+14.5% vs. +13.8% BS(e) and +13.3% consensus); EBIT: € 971.91 M (+18.5% vs. +17.6% BS(e) and +16.5% consens...

Alvaro del Pozo
  • Alvaro del Pozo

TELEFÓNICA: COMENTARIOS A LA PRESENTACIÓN DEL CMD'25 (ANÁLISIS BANCO S...

Los comentarios de la compañía en la presentación del CMD’25 celebrado ayer estuvieron muy centrados en la rebaja del guidance’25 de FCF y su evolución esperada, así como en las implicaciones de esta evolución para la nueva política de dividendos. Destacamos:

Jan Frederik Slijkerman ... (+5)
  • Jan Frederik Slijkerman
  • Jeroen van den Broek
  • Jesse Norcross
  • Nadège Tillier
  • Timothy Rahill

Coffee, Croissants & Credit/Telefonica, Goodman Group

Telecom: Telefonica's leverage reduction takes more time than expected. Real Estate: Goodman 1Q26: confirms FY26 guidance, continued growth in data centres

Luis Arredondo
  • Luis Arredondo

GRIFOLS: RDOS. 3T’25 (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

Rdos. 3T'25 vs 3T'24: Ventas: 1.865 M euros (+4,0% vs +4,0% BS(e) y +3,0% consenso); EBITDA: 482,0 M euros (+4,3% vs +2,6% BS(e) y +1,1% consenso); EBIT: 354,2 M euros (+11,7% vs +9,5% BS(e) y +6,6% consenso); BDI: 126,96 M euros (+144,2% vs +129,3% BS(e) y +149,1% consenso); Rdos. 9meses'25 vs 9meses'24: Ventas: 5.542 M euros (+5,8% vs +5,8% BS(e) y +5,5% consenso); EBITDA: 1.358 M euros (+14,5% vs +13,8% BS(e) y +13,3% consenso); EBIT: 971,91 M euros (+18,5% vs +17,6% BS(e) y +16,5% consenso);...

Research Department
  • Research Department

IBERIAN DAILY 05 NOVEMBER + 3Q’25 RESULTS. HIGHLIGHTS AND REST OF PREV...

NEWS SUMMARY: GRIFOLS, TELEFÓNICA. At the end of today’s report, and during the entire results season, we will include a presentation with positive and negative results highlights and previews for the 3Q’25 results to be released over the coming days in Spain. Stock markets tentative By contrast to Monday, yesterday stock markets ended better than they opened, although most ended in the red, with tech stocks linked to AI leading the drops after the rally over the past few weeks. In the STOXX 6...

Research Department
  • Research Department

INFORME DIARIO 05 NOVIEMBRE + RDOS. ESPAÑA Y EUROPA 3T’25. IDEAS DESTA...

COMPAÑÍAS QUE APARECEN EN EL INFORME: ESPAÑA: GRIFOLS, TEEFÓNICA. EUROPA: AHOLD DELHAIZE, BMW. Incluido en el informe diario de hoy, y durante toda la campaña de resultados, incorporamos al final una presentación con los resultados destacados en positivo y negativo y previews de Rdos. 3T’25 que se publicarán en España y Europa en los próximos días. Las bolsas dudan A diferencia del lunes, las bolsas fueron de menos a más, aunque la mayoría terminaron en negativo con los valores tecnológicos li...

James Ratzer
  • James Ratzer

Telefonica (Neutral) After a 13% fall post-CMD, is it attractive?

Earlier this morning we published our initial take on Telefonica’s Q3 results and the CMD which has led to new FCF guidance c.20% below prior consensus estimates.

James Ratzer
  • James Ratzer

Telefonica (Neutral) CMD Quick Take: After all the hype, just a profi...

Telefonica’s CMD has been just over 9 months in the making – and sadly it isn’t yet clear where the story now goes from here. The new guidance now implies no margin growth or capital efficiency improvement over the next three years – but exactly how the higher level of investment will support longer-term growth beyond 2028 is unclear.

Carole Braudeau
  • Carole Braudeau

Credit Morning 11/04/2025

Webuild: CFR upgraded by S&P to BB+|ELO a achevé la mise en autonomie financière d’Auchan Retail et de NIH et a bénéficié du soutien de l’AFM à hauteur de 425 m EUR|Picard: new SUNs offering due 2032 and tender offer on the existing SUNs due 2027|

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