reports
- Aleksander Erstad
Tidewater (Buy, TP: USD62.00) - Growth set to pause in 2025
The Q4 results were decent but overshadowed by a weaker 2025 guidance than expected (EBITDA mid-point 9% below consensus and our estimate ahead of the report). The company expects 2025 activity to start slow before recovering in H2, partly driven by growth in subsea-related work, while offshore rig count is seen lower in 2025 than in 2024. We expect softness in the offshore drilling market to continue into 2026, and we remain below consensus on 2026e EBITDA (15%). The stock is trading at 2025–20...
- Aleksander Erstad
Tidewater (Buy, TP: USD65.00) - Guidance to be in focus
With the Q4 results, we expect focus to be on the 2025 guidance given the more challenging market backdrop of flattish E&P spending and softness in rig demand. Still, we believe already secured contracts in a strong market should provide momentum into H1 and enable YOY growth. We are in line with consensus on 2025e EBITDA but 17% below on 2026e. Cash conversion is likely be aided by lower maintenance capex, and we forecast FCF yields of 15–18% for 2025–2026. We reiterate our BUY but have reduced...
- Aleksander Erstad
Tidewater - Initiation of coverage - Benefiting from scale
Fleet acquisitions, a recovering offshore support vessel (OSV) market and a strong contracting strategy have helped Tidewater take EBITDA from USD35m in 2021 to USD564m in 2024e. Growth is set to slow in 2025 with a more muted drilling outlook, partly offset by a repricing of below-market contracts to current rates, while lower maintenance intensity in 2025e should provide a kicker for FCF growth (44% YOY). 1-year forward EV/EBITDA of 4.8x is below the 6-8x at which it traded earlier this year. ...
Ford Equity US Rating and Forecast Report
Ford Equity Research covers more than 4,000 stocks using a proprietary quantitative model that evaluates a company’s earnings strength, its relative valuation and recent price movement. Ford’s five recommendation ratings include strong buy, buy, hold, sell, strong sell. For all stocks in our coverage universe, ratings are generated each week and reflect the fundamental and price data as of the last trading day of the week.
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