The steep decline in 3M HIBOR could shave off 4-6bp from NIM in 1Q24 as Hong Kong dollar-denominated loans accounted for 11% and 13% of total loans respectively for DBS and OCBC. Singapore banks are expected to deliver steady net profits of S$2,486m for DBS (-3% yoy but +10% qoq) and S$1,824m for OCBC (-3% yoy but +12% qoq) in 1Q24, supported by resilient asset quality. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. Our top picks are DBS (BUY/Target: S$43.25) followed by OCBC (BUY/Target: S$18.15).
While Middle East tensions have escalated in the past 72 hours, we believe that the situation remains fluid. Oil prices remain the key worry and could negatively impact Asian growth and thus Singapore’s open economy should it escalate past US$100/bbl. In our view, aviation stocks should be able to pass on any oil price related increases, while near-term sentiment for the upstream and offshore marine sector should remain positive. An overall risk-off sentiment will likely pervade the markets in t...
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Strategy The Impact Of Escalating Middle East Tensions A fluid situation with oil prices the key worry. Small/Mid Cap Highlights BRC Asia (BRC SP/BUY/S$1.94/Target: S$2.42) 1QFY24: Strong results as construction demand recovers. TRADERS’ CORNER Aztech Global (AZTECH SP): Trading BUY Isdn Holdings (ISDN SP): Trading BUY
OVERWEIGHT on Indonesia banks as they offer the highest earnings growth in 2024/25 and benefit from the recent rally in commodity prices. We like Singapore banks for their attractive dividend yields. Our top BUYs are DBS (Target: S$43.25), CIMB (Target: RM7.33), SCB X (Target: Bt130) and BMRI (Target: Rp7,900). We also like OCBC (Target: S$18.15), RHB (Target: RM6.18) and BBNI (Target: Rp6,300) as attractive yield plays.
We anticipate two rate cuts in 2H24 as opposed to three stipulated by the Fed’s dot plot. Domestic interest rates in Singapore are likely to remain elevated for slightly longer but will start receding in 4Q24, in tandem with rate cuts in the US. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. We raised our 2025 earnings forecasts for DBS by 6% and OCBC by 5%. DBS and OCBC provide 2025 dividend yields of 6.8% and 6.5% respectively. BUY DBS (Target: S$43.25), followed by OCBC (Target: S$18.15).
Recent comments by US Fed officials raise the spectre of zero interest rate cuts should the US economy remain robust. We view Singapore corporates’ debt levels as manageable across the companies we cover, with free cash flow generation forecast to remain strong in 2024. Nevertheless, some companies’ profit margins could erode in 2024 should interest rate cuts be deferred into 2025, eg WIL, CDL, CLI, SCI and KEP. Companies with high cash piles (eg VALUE, GENS and YZJ) could benefit.
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: April Conviction Calls: Adding AIA, Midea, Hansoh Pharmaceutical, Shenzhen Inovance and Trip.com to our BUY list, with SELL calls on BYD, EVE Energy, and Li Auto. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Outperformance In Mar 24 and 1Q24: Our picks are ACES, BBTN, CMRY, SIDO, EXCL, MAPI, JSMR, CTRA, and AKRA. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Expanding The Variety Of Events Bets: Our Alpha Picks trounced the KLCI in Mar 24. Apr 24 picks: GENM, Inari, Mah Sing, MrDIY, MY...
Our Alpha Picks portfolio rose 6.0% mom on an equal-weighted basis, outperforming the STI by a material 3.4ppt. The outperformance was driven by broad-based strength across most of our portfolio with the best showing coming from Riverstone, Yangzijiang Shipbuilding and Singtel. In 1Q24, our Alpha Picks portfolio surged by 13.7% qoq, surpassing the STI by a hefty 14.2ppt qoq. For Apr 24, we add CSE and LREIT while removing MINT, CVL and FEH.
GREATER CHINA Sector Healthcare: Government’s draft plan seeks to promote a more supportive drug innovation ecosystem. Results Foxconn Industrial Internet (601138 CH/BUY/Rmb24.35/Target: Rmb29.10): 4Q23: Top-line beat but margins miss; raise estimates on the AI business. INDONESIA ASEAN Gems Conference Highlights Jasa Marga (JSMR IJ/BUY/Rp5,250/Target: Rp7,300): Tariff adjustments at 12 toll road sections to drive 19.3% core NPAT growth in 2024. MALAYSIA Results Bermaz Auto (BAUTO MK/BUY/RM2...
Responding to The Australian Financial Review article on the potential sale of Optus for A$16b, Singtel stated that there is no impending deal at this juncture. That said, management is regularly reviewing its underlying assets. We believe this news helped illuminate value of its underlying asset as Singtel’s current market capitalisation reflects little value of its Singapore consumer business and Optus asset. Operationally, Optus’ operating trend is on an uptrend. Maintain BUY. Target price: S...
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Update Singapore Telecommunications (ST SP/BUY/S$2.48/Target: S$2.99): Optus: While management focuses on network reach and a search for CEO, news on stake sales has helped to illuminate value on the inherent asset. TRADERS’ CORNER Singapore Telecommunications (ST SP): Trading BUY City Developments (CIT SP): Trading SELL
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: March Conviction Call: Adding CMB, COLI, CR Beer, Kuaishou and TUL to our BUY list, closing out SELL calls. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Significant Outperformance In Feb 24: Our picks are BBTN, CMRY, SIDO, EXCL, MAPI, JSMR, CTRA, MYOR and AKRA. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Focusing On Earnings Momentum: Our Alpha Picks underperformed the KLCI in Feb 24 (-0.9% vs 2.5%). Mar 24 picks significantly feature companies with good earnings momentum. SINGAPORE...
Although the FSSTI recorded a decline of 0.4% mom in Feb 24, more than half of our picks, especially the small/mid-caps (Frencken, Marco Polo Marine and Food Empire), recorded decent gains. Our Alpha Picks portfolio rose 1.6% mom on an equal-weighted basis, outperforming the FSSTI by 2.0ppt. For Mar 24, we add Riverstone, and take profit on SATS and Valuetronics.
GREATER CHINA Economics 2024/25 Budget: Tough Balancing Act. Sector Property: Government removes all cooling measures on Hong Kong property; upgrade sector to MARKET WEIGHT. Results Baidu Inc (9888 HK/BUY/HK$106.60/Target: HK$128.00): 4Q23: Solid earnings growth; all eyes on AI-powered ads and Ernie Bot in 2024. Galaxy Entertainment Group (27 HK/BUY/HK$42.05/Target: HK$56.00): 4Q23: Market share shrank within expectations; expanding share in 2024. Sun Hung Kai Properties (16 HK/BUY/HK$78.00 /Tar...
Unfortunately, this report is not available for the investor type or country you selected.
Report is subscription only.
Thank you, your report is ready.
Thank you, your report is ready.