Upgrading Materials to Market Weight We have discussed for weeks that we will need to see the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) close below their 20-day MAs for 2-3 consecutive days in order to get more cautious. This still has not happened, meaning the short-term trend remains bullish. Closes below their 20-day MAs have been extremely rare since the October 2023 bottom, with buyers stepping-in immediately. Still, we need to be prepared. If we do get 2-3 closes below the 20-day MAs on the S&P 500 an...
With momentum around electrification less favourable of late, we have seen a major shift in perception, from doubtless overly rose-tinted optimism to what looks to be similarly excessive pessimism. While we have reduced our BEV assumptions, we nonetheless still anticipate growth in the next few years (including this year), well ahead of that of the automotive market as a whole. In the face of these changes, the players in the value chain (mines, semiconductors, auto) are differently p...
Le momentum autour de l’électrification, moins favorable dernièrement, a conduit à un changement profond de perception, passant d’un optimisme sans doute excessif à un pessimisme qui le semble tout autant. En effet, si nous avons revu en baisse nos hypothèses, nous visons néanmoins toujours une croissance dans les années à venir (y compris cette année), bien supérieure à celle du marché automobile dans son ensemble. Face à ces changements, tous les acteurs au sein de la chaîne de vale...
>Performance delivered in 2023 - Based on the strong organic momentum (+13%), the group posted a 13% increase in underlying operating profit (+19% excluding forex) i.e. a 40bp improvement in the underlying operating margin to 11.3% (vs 10.9%). The group benefited from a robust volume effect (+210bp), controlled raw materials and energy costs (-350bp) as well as wage inflation (+6%, -170bp) via price effects (+440bp) and productivity gains (+110bp) despite higher costs...
>Des performances au rendez-vous en 2023 - Sur la base d’une forte dynamique organique (+13%), le groupe affiche une hausse de 13% du ROC (+19% hors changes) soit un gain de 40 pb de la MopC à 11.3% (vs 10.9%). Le groupe a bénéficié d’un effet volume soutenu (+210 pb), a maîtrisé les coûts matières premières, énergétique (-350 pb) ainsi que l’inflation salariale (+6%, -170 pb) par des effets prix (+440 pb) et des gains de productivité (+110 pb) malgré des coûts accrus...
Very good 2023 results, with organic growth of 13% and a 0.4pt improvement in MOC to 11.3%.2024 guidance in line with our scenario: organic growth of 5% and MOC around 11%.A business that has become less cyclical thanks to its new markets: semiconductors and electric vehicles in particular.Valuation still affordable in relation to the market and historical dataBuy opinion confirmed, especially as Mersen could be an attractive target for a "strategic buyer".
>FY results fully in line with our expectations - The full-year sales figures, previously published, were a pleasant surprise, with organic growth of 13.2%, above the guidance at 11-12%, despite a largely unfavourable base effect after two years of strong growth (8.6% in 2021 and 15.8% in 2022). The underlying operating profit came in at € 137.3m (€ 137m estimated, € 135.2m for consensus), up 12.9% YoY. The underlying operating margin stood at 11.3% (+40bp), in line ...
>Publication des résultats annuels totalement en ligne avec nos attentes - Le CA annuel déjà publié a constitué une bonne surprise avec une croissance organique de 13.2% au-dessus des guidances de +11/12% et malgré un effet de référence largement défavorable après 2 exercices de forte croissance (+8.6% en 2021 et +15.8% en 2022). Le ROC ressort à 137.3 M€ (137 M€ estimé, 135.2 M€ pour le css) +12.9% YoY. La MopC ressort à 11.3% (+40pb) en ligne avec les guidances (11....
Two Directors at ConocoPhillips sold/sold after exercising options 31,877 shares at between 112.060USD and 112.173USD. The significance rating of the trade was 99/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all th...
Although Argentina was only an anecdotal factor in Puma's profit warning, it has rekindled investors' questions about the impact of the peso's (official) depreciation following the election of Javier Milei last November. Here we recap on the risks faced by the twenty or so companies and sectors with a presence in Argentina within our universe of coverage. While the potential impact is marginal in most cases, it is more significant for: Prosegur, Prosegur Cash, Tenaris, Verallia, Save...
Même si l’Argentine n’est qu’un élément accessoire du profit warning de Puma, il a ravivé les interrogations des investisseurs sur l’impact de la dépréciation du peso (officiel) à la suite de l’élection de Javier Milei en novembre dernier. Nous revenons ici sur les risques encourus par la vingtaine de sociétés et secteurs ayant une présence en Argentine au sein de notre univers de couverture. Si l’impact potentiel est le plus souvent marginal, il est plus matériel chez : Prosegur, Pro...
>Full-year sales in line with our expectations - Mersen reported full-year sales of € 1,210.9m (€ 1,213.6m for our estimate, € 1,209.0m for the consensus) vs € 1,114.8m the previous year, up 8.6% and up 13.2% on an organic basis, or above the guidance for growth of +11-12%, which was fine-tuned at the Q3 sales report (+10-12%). This implies Q4 sales of € 301.1m (€ 303.7m estimated) vs € 293.6m, up 2.6% and 8.6% on an organic basis (the same as in Q3), which was a real...
>CA annuel en ligne avec nos attentes - Mersen publie un CA annuel de 1210.9 M€ (1213.6 M€ estimés, 1209.0 M€ pour le css) vs 1114.8 M€ YoY en hausse de 8.6% et 13.2% en organique soit un niveau supérieur à la guidance de +11/12% resserrée lors de la publication du CA T3 (+10/12%). Cela induit un CA T4 de 301.1 M€ (303.7 M€ estimé) vs 293.6 M€ en hausse de 2.6% et 8.6% en organique (id au T3) soit une réelle performance du fait d’un effet de référence largement défavo...
Russell 2000 Testing 1.5+ Year Resistance The market remains in "lockout rally" mode, where prices continue to move higher with little-to-no pullbacks, while ignoring overbought readings. This is something we have discussed on a weekly basis since our 11/21/23 Compass. There is no reason to fight this bullish trend, and we continue to expect more upside into year-end and the early part of 2024. Russell 2000, Several High-Octane ETFs (ARKK, IPO, XBI) Testing Major 1.5+ Year Resistances. The Rus...
In this product we rank the most positive and negative domestic stocks, filter the symbols by market-cap and trading volume, and then divide the companies into sectors and groups. We then manually look through charts leadership/changes, bottoms-up/top-down ideas, short-term patterns that may have long-term significance, etc. We believe you will find this product valuable as significant price and relative moves begin in the daily charts.
A director at Mersen sold 3,999 shares at 34.000EUR and the significance rating of the trade was 60/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly showing C...
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