HEADLINES: • Huuuge Games: post-4Q24 earnings call takeaways – supportive 2025E outlook, exploring new markets NEUTRAL • Pepco Group: Alteri PE ready to buy Poundland, according to Sky News POSITIVE • Tofas: Competition Authority approves acquisition of Stellantis Otomotiv Pazarlama POSITIVE • Elm: announces completion of procedures to acquire Thiqah POSITIVE • Erste Bank: 1Q25E preview (due on 30 April) • Bank Handlowy: 1Q25E preview (due on 8 May) • ING BSK: 1Q25E preview (due on 8 May) • CCC:...
HEADLINES: • Theon International: Noctis in Dies* (BUY - initiation of coverage) • Huuuge Games: 4Q24 adjusted EBITDA 5% above our forecast, share buybacks not a priority NEUTRAL • PGE: key takeaways from the 4Q24 results call NEUTRAL • Tauron: key takeaways from the 4Q24 results call NEUTRAL • Auto Partner: earnings call takeaways – challenging 1Q25E, but rather optimistic on FY25E outlook NEUTRAL • InPost: acquisition of Yodel for GBP 106m debt swap NEUTRAL • Diagnostyka: 4Q24E preview – 35% y...
HEADLINES: • OTP Bank: agrees to limit retail fees NEUTRAL • Benefit Systems: EGM approves capital increase, via issuance of up to 280k new shares NEUTRAL • Santander Bank Polska: may face change of strategic investor NEUTRAL • Inter Cars: March sales growth accelerates to 13% yoy NEUTRAL • Huuuge Games: preliminary 1Q25 bookings at USD 62m, almost flat qoq NEUTRAL
HEADLINES: • Mavi: a mispriced story with solid fundamentals (BUY - reinitiation of coverage) • Turkish banks: weather vs. climate (reinitiating on Akbank, Garanti, Isbank and Yapi Kredi with HOLDs) • Warsaw Stock Exchange: just move on up (stays BUY) • Benefit Systems: March sports cards addition surprises positively, mostly in Poland POSITIVE • MOL: announces dividend proposal of HUF 275/share NEUTRAL • EU macro: cohesion funds can be deployed for defence, housing and energy investments • Dino...
EME Equity Market – March 2025 Türkiye hammered, once again. The MSCI EM Europe Index advanced 0.5% in EUR terms and 4.5% mom in USD terms in March. The Czech PX Index was the best performer (+7.0% mom in EUR terms), followed by the Greek ASE (+4.8% mom), Polish WIG (+3.7% mom) and Hungarian BUX(+1.3% mom) indices (all in EUR terms). There was a muted performance from the Romanian BET Index (-0.1% mom in EUR terms). The Turkish ISE30 finished in the red again, declining 9.5% mom in EUR terms.
HEADLINES: • Athens Exchange Group: bottom-line miss in 4Q24, on higher costs, but proposed DPS in line with expectations NEUTRAL • AROBS Transilvania Software: publishes its 2025 budget POSITIVE • MedLife: publishes its 2025 budget NEGATIVE • CCC: new financing agreement, extending factoring line POSITIVE • DataWalk: sale to Coöperatieve Rabobank; total contract value reaches PLN 66.1m POSITIVE • Orlen: 2024 consolidated results to be affected by one-offs NEUTRAL • Poland macro: preliminary Mar...
HEADLINES: • Polish banks: pricing and believing (PKO BP, Bank Pekao, Santander BP, mBank, ING BSK, Bank Millennium, Alior Bank, Bank Handlowy) • Asseco Poland: 4Q24 review – net profit up 9% yoy, 9% above the consensus POSITIVE • InPost: 4Q24 in line with expectations; FY25E EBITDA growth guidance in the mid-20%s, but a slow start to the year POSITIVE • Kety: solid full 4Q24 results, with EBITDA 12% above preliminaries POSITIVE • Halyk Bank: 4Q24 review and 2025E guidance highlights • Titan Cem...
The Polish banks have rallied 35% ytd, but the median total return for the LTM has arrived at 18%+ for the Polish banks under our coverage. We feel that the market is currently in a similar place to exactly a year ago. The banks have performed well since the end of last year, but valuations remain attractive, with our 2025-26E median P/Es of 9.0-8.2x, at discounts to the long-term valuation levels and with solid single-digit dividend yields in 1H25E. Our upgraded forecasts imply a 10% median EPS...
HEADLINES: • Orange Polska: strategy focused on growth (stays BUY) • Ignitis Group: making headway (BUY - transfer of coverage) • PZU: 4Q24 well ahead of expectations, holding structure to be created within PZU group POSITIVE • Grupa Pracuj: 4Q24 results – EBITDA up 9% yoy, 9% above our forecast and 1% above the consensus POSITIVE • Colt CZ Group SE: FY24 results review NEUTRAL • Public Power Corporation: 4Q24 earnings, and preview of a potential mega data centre NEUTRAL • Lamda Development: 4Q2...
HEADLINES: • Polish banks: Financial Stability Committee mentions sanction of free credit risk for consumer loans portfolio NEGATIVE • DataWalk: preliminary 4Q24 results – sales up 19% yoy, to PLN 9.09m POSITIVE • Türkiye macro: putting the CBRT’s emergency rate hike into context • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (17-23 March) • GTC: solvency of controlling investor in question, after State Audit Office of Hungary's report • Banca Transilvania: dividend proposal from the 2024 profits NEUTRA...
HEADLINES: • Pepco Group: structurally challenged (downgraded to HOLD) • Air Astana Group: 4Q24 – good, at first glance; dividend surprises positively • CEZ: takeaways from the 4Q24 earnings call NEGATIVE • Allegro: key takeaways from the 4Q24 call POSITIVE • Shoper: takeaways from the post-4Q24 prelims management call NEUTRAL • Polish banks: receive maximum dividend payout ratio letters from the PFSA – no surprises NEUTRAL • Mo-BRUK: unfavourable ruling results in closure of Wałbrzych branch (2...
We have downgraded our rating for Pepco Group (Pepco) to HOLD, from Buy, cutting our price target (PT) to PLN 17.6/share, from PLN 31.5. The CMD did not bring any intel on a credible path of overcoming the key challenges in its core operations, going forward, in our view. At the same time, we see the company’s local competitors accelerating their store rollouts massively, and Pepco’s e-commerce strategy as vague. We also see a demographic downturn forging forward in Poland, including GUS forecas...
HEADLINES: • BIM: strong operating results in 4Q24 POSITIVE • Bank Handlowy: 4Q24 results do not bring much new to the table NEUTRAL • Sok Marketler Ticaret: recovery in operating results masked by bottom-line loss in 4Q24 NEUTRAL • GEVORKYAN: 4Q24 results – lower than expected, due to one-off expenses NEUTRAL • Benefit Systems: key takeaways from the call on the MAC Group acquisition in Türkiye POSITIVE • Grupa Pracuj: PLN 28.6m revaluation of Beamery to harm 2024 results NEGATIVE • Budimex: an...
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