A director at Sun Hung Kai Properties Ltd bought 419,000 shares at 68.839HKD and the significance rating of the trade was 67/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last tw...
CCL Index fell after increasing for three consecutive weeks while CVI Index rose over 60, reflecting a change in banks' attitude towards granting mortgages from lukewarm to optimistic. CRI rose again by 0.55% mom. With expectation of fewer interest cuts, we foresee primary sales pulling back in 2Q24. However, we maintain our forecast of property prices (-2%) and maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the sector. We prefer retail landlords over developers. Top pick: Wharf REIC.
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: April Conviction Calls: Adding AIA, Midea, Hansoh Pharmaceutical, Shenzhen Inovance and Trip.com to our BUY list, with SELL calls on BYD, EVE Energy, and Li Auto. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Outperformance In Mar 24 and 1Q24: Our picks are ACES, BBTN, CMRY, SIDO, EXCL, MAPI, JSMR, CTRA, and AKRA. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Expanding The Variety Of Events Bets: Our Alpha Picks trounced the KLCI in Mar 24. Apr 24 picks: GENM, Inari, Mah Sing, MrDIY, MY...
In Shanghai, the new home market shrank further with divergence among regions; the secondary market saw volume rebound with a weak ASP performance. In Hong Kong, sales performance is still divergent among developers despite new home transactions growing by nearly 15x mom in Mar 23, reflecting a mild recovery of market sentiment. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top picks: CR Land, COLI, SHKP and LINK REIT.
The 2024 NPC meeting gave little evidence of strong policy support to the property sector. New-home sales in 50 core mainland cities remain weak. Second-hand home sales in Beijing/Shanghai/Guangzhou/Shenzhen are picking up. Hong Kong saw a very strong rebound in new-home sales after the 2024 Budget Speech. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the China and Hong Kong property sector. Expect a continuous sales recovery to drive the re-rating of Hong Kong developers.
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: March Conviction Call: Adding CMB, COLI, CR Beer, Kuaishou and TUL to our BUY list, closing out SELL calls. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Significant Outperformance In Feb 24: Our picks are BBTN, CMRY, SIDO, EXCL, MAPI, JSMR, CTRA, MYOR and AKRA. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Focusing On Earnings Momentum: Our Alpha Picks underperformed the KLCI in Feb 24 (-0.9% vs 2.5%). Mar 24 picks significantly feature companies with good earnings momentum. SINGAPORE...
SHKP’s underlying net profit declined by 5.9% yoy to HK$8,906m, dragged by contraction of property development profits and higher finance cost. Interim DPS is HK$0.95/share, down by 24% yoy. Investment portfolio remains resilient with 21.4% yoy growth in rental of mainland malls. Management expects that removing cooling measures will first drive luxury home sales, thus benefiting SHKP. Maintain BUY with unchanged target price of HK$105.05.
GREATER CHINA Economics 2024/25 Budget: Tough Balancing Act. Sector Property: Government removes all cooling measures on Hong Kong property; upgrade sector to MARKET WEIGHT. Results Baidu Inc (9888 HK/BUY/HK$106.60/Target: HK$128.00): 4Q23: Solid earnings growth; all eyes on AI-powered ads and Ernie Bot in 2024. Galaxy Entertainment Group (27 HK/BUY/HK$42.05/Target: HK$56.00): 4Q23: Market share shrank within expectations; expanding share in 2024. Sun Hung Kai Properties (16 HK/BUY/HK$78.00 /Tar...
Financial Secretary Paul Chan delivered the 2024-25 Budget speech in the morning, announcing the removal of all cooling measures (BSD, NRSD and SSD) on property transactions. HKMA also eased countercyclical macroprudential measures for mortgage loans. Overall, in the near term, we expect a strong rebound of transactions to help the stabilisation of property price. Upgrade sector to MARKET WEIGHT on higher transaction volume and better liquidity for developers. Top pick: SHKP.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Economics 2024/25 Budget Tough Balancing Act. Sector Property Government removes all cooling measures on Hong Kong property; upgrade sector to MARKET WEIGHT. Results Baidu Inc (9888 HK/BUY/HK$106.60/Target: HK$128.00) 4Q23: Solid earnings growth; all eyes on AI-powered ads and Ernie Bot in 2024. Galaxy Entertainment Group (27 HK/BUY/HK$42.05/Target: HK$56.00) 4Q23: Market share shrank within expectations; expanding share in 2024. Sun Hung Kai Properties (16 HK/BUY/HK$78....
The CCL index stabilised in Jan 24. Transaction volumes are hovering at a low level but we expect more project launches after the Chinese New Year. Our recent channel checks revealed poor implementation of the easing of property measures for non-PR homebuyers. Rising rental yield may provide some downside protection to property prices. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. SHKP and LINKREIT remain our top picks for their defensiveness.
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: February Conviction Calls: We remain hedged, adding COSCO Shipping Holdings and Foxconn Industrial Internet to our BUY list, but include additional SELL calls on Li Auto and Xpeng. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Outperformance in Jan 24: Our picks are EXCL, MAPI, BMRI, JSMR, BBNI, CTRA, MYOR and AKRA. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Eyes Also On Results Season Winners: Our Alpha Picks performance again trounced the KLCI in Jan 24 (+9.6% vs +4.0%). Feb 24 pic...
The CCL index declined 6.1% in 2023, while the CVI index has been staying below 20 since Sep 23. In Jan 24, secondary transactions of 10 major real estates went up 10.8% mom (Dec 23: +9.8% mom). The sustainability of sales recovery needs to be monitored. With higher-than-expected fiscal deficits for 2023-24, the upcoming Budget speech will be a key focus in the near term. With a historically high inventory level, property prices remain under pressure. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT.
In 11M23, Hong Kong’s tourist arrivals and retail sales reached 51.3% and 84.1% of 11M18 levels. However, it will be quite challenging to achieve further recovery. For 2024, we estimate 15% yoy growth in tourist arrivals and 2% yoy growth in retail sales. Office landlords are facing long-term pressure of cap rate expansion. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT on the property sector. LINK REIT is our top pick. We lower our target prices for Wharf REIC and Hysan in view of lower underlying net profit and DPS est...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: January Conviction Calls: We add the potential beneficiaries of the upcoming CNY festival − Galaxy Entertainment and Trip.com − to our BUY list, but include SELL calls on BYD and Geely due to the subsidy reduction. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Underperformance in 4Q23 and 2023: Our picks are MAPI, BMRI, JSMR, TLKM, BBNI, CTRA, MYOR and AKRA. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Domestic Event Winners: Our Alpha Picks outperformed the KLCI in Dec 23. Jan 24 pick...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: December Conviction Calls: We add a mix of turnaround stocks and beneficiaries of policy support to our BUY list − CSPC, HKEX, Lenovo, Longfor, Pinduoduo and Sunny Optical. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Underperformance With A 3.7% Return: Our picks are GOTO, BMRI, JSMR, TLKM, BBNI, NCKL, CTRA, MYOR and AKRA. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Still Focusing On Domestic Winners: Our Alpha Picks trounced the FBMKLCI in Nov 23, mostly thanks to Hume’s run-up. De...
With negative carry of property investment and outflow of tourists, we expect developers and landlords to continue facing multiple challenges in 1H24. Given the weaker-than-expected property market recovery after the 2023 Policy Address, we downgrade the sector to UNDERWEIGHT. We cut target prices of SHKP, NWD, Wharf REIC and Hysan. LINK REIT and SHKP remain our top picks.
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: November Conviction Calls: We add a mix of defensives and turnaround stocks − COSCO Shipping, CR Mixc, Great Wall Motor, Innovent, Link REIT and NetEase − to our BUY list. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Outperformance Despite Negative Returns: Our picks: TLKM, BBNI, SMGR, NCKL, CTRA, MYOR, AKRA and CMRY. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Focusing On Domestic Winners: Our Alpha Picks underperformed the FBMKLCI in Oct 23. Nov 23 picks: BUY BURSA, EKOVEST, GENM, ...
We have a neutral view on the policies related to the stock market and we expect a short-term rebound in ADT but sustained recovery will still depend on China’s macro development and US monetary policy. For the property sector, the relaxation of demandside management measures is within expectation. However, combining the aggressive land supply plan and weak population policy, the overall impact on the property industry is natural to negative. Sales need to be closely watched.
With Paul Chan softening his tone, when/how to ease cooling measures on non-PR buyers again becomes a market focus. We expect the government to marginally relax BSD/NRSD rules in the 2023 Policy Address. However, it may still be a bit too early to bet on the complete removal of cooling measures, as: a) the CCL index is still flat ytd, and b) Hong Kong has a very large pool of non-PR talents waiting to apply for PR a
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