Ambu (Buy, TP: DKK155.00) - Another strong quarter

We forecast Ambu to have another strong quarter, with c14% organic growth (we are above consensus) and continued solid margin progression. Despite tariffs, we expect the company to maintain its full-year guidance, but possibly increase the top-line guidance later in the year. We will also look for comments on the impact of tariffs on margins in the coming years. We reiterate our BUY, but have lowered our target price to DKK155 (165).

Novo Nordisk (Buy, TP: DKK900.00) - Underlying soft GLP-1 sales

We forecast a soft Q1, with 17.3% LCY sales growth and 13.8% LCY operating profit growth due to subdued prescriptions. While we estimate Ozempic sales c0.5% below consensus, we are c1.2% above for Wegovy, as we include DKK1bn in sales related to Wegovy US inventories. We see likely relief from potential unchanged 2025 LCY guidance, supported by improved Wegovy supply and fading pressure from compounders. We reiterate our BUY and DKK900 target price.

Zealand Pharma (Buy, TP: DKK1000.00) - Focus on pipeline progression

We expect an uneventful Q1 report, with investor focus on top-line results from the dapiglutide phase Ib obesity trial (due in Q2), which could help provide clarity on the positioning of the molecule in obesity and inflammation. For petrelintide, we have reduced our peak sales forecast to cUSD10.0bn (cUSD10.8bn) on increased competition from GUBamy. We reiterate our BUY but have cut our target price to DKK1,000 (1,150).

Royal Unibrew (Buy, TP: DKK670.00) - Q1 softer than expected

Royal Unibrew’s Q1 was affected by a less-favourable Easter effect in the important Northern Europe region. While this was expected to some degree, the c4% top-line and c10% EBIT misses to consensus were a negative surprise. We reiterate our BUY, but have lowered our target price to DKK670 (690).

Royal Unibrew (Buy, TP: DKK690.00) - Q1e – likely a mixed quarter

We expect a mixed start to the year in Q1 from a top-line perspective, and continued margin progression. Q1 is normally a small quarter and we find it unlikely the company will make any changes to the full-year guidance. We reiterate our BUY and DKK690 target price.

Muted growth prospects for 2025

Novo Nordisk (Buy, TP: DKK900.00) - Subdued prescription growth in Q1

We have updated our model with the latest IQVIA data, and see downside risk to Visible Alpha consensus. We see Q1e global sales for Wegovy of DKK17,898m (c2.2% below consensus) and Ozempic of DKK31,642m (c1.5% below consensus). While a reaffirmation of guidance could offer relief, we have lowered our target price, primarily on lower-than-expected GLP-1 sales. We reiterate our BUY but have cut our target price to DKK900 (1,040).

Zealand Pharma (Buy, TP: DKK1150.00) - Deal delivery

We are positive on the partnership with Roche for petrelintide and view the financial terms as favourable for Zealand Pharma. While we had included Roche as the partner for petrelintide in our base case, the deal terms are better than we assumed. Thus, we have updated our valuation for petrelintide to DKK731 NPV/share. We reiterate our BUY and have increased our target price to DKK1,150 (1,010), based on our SOTP NPV.