The steep decline in 3M HIBOR could shave off 4-6bp from NIM in 1Q24 as Hong Kong dollar-denominated loans accounted for 11% and 13% of total loans respectively for DBS and OCBC. Singapore banks are expected to deliver steady net profits of S$2,486m for DBS (-3% yoy but +10% qoq) and S$1,824m for OCBC (-3% yoy but +12% qoq) in 1Q24, supported by resilient asset quality. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. Our top picks are DBS (BUY/Target: S$43.25) followed by OCBC (BUY/Target: S$18.15).
While Middle East tensions have escalated in the past 72 hours, we believe that the situation remains fluid. Oil prices remain the key worry and could negatively impact Asian growth and thus Singapore’s open economy should it escalate past US$100/bbl. In our view, aviation stocks should be able to pass on any oil price related increases, while near-term sentiment for the upstream and offshore marine sector should remain positive. An overall risk-off sentiment will likely pervade the markets in t...
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Strategy The Impact Of Escalating Middle East Tensions A fluid situation with oil prices the key worry. Small/Mid Cap Highlights BRC Asia (BRC SP/BUY/S$1.94/Target: S$2.42) 1QFY24: Strong results as construction demand recovers. TRADERS’ CORNER Aztech Global (AZTECH SP): Trading BUY Isdn Holdings (ISDN SP): Trading BUY
OVERWEIGHT on Indonesia banks as they offer the highest earnings growth in 2024/25 and benefit from the recent rally in commodity prices. We like Singapore banks for their attractive dividend yields. Our top BUYs are DBS (Target: S$43.25), CIMB (Target: RM7.33), SCB X (Target: Bt130) and BMRI (Target: Rp7,900). We also like OCBC (Target: S$18.15), RHB (Target: RM6.18) and BBNI (Target: Rp6,300) as attractive yield plays.
We anticipate two rate cuts in 2H24 as opposed to three stipulated by the Fed’s dot plot. Domestic interest rates in Singapore are likely to remain elevated for slightly longer but will start receding in 4Q24, in tandem with rate cuts in the US. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. We raised our 2025 earnings forecasts for DBS by 6% and OCBC by 5%. DBS and OCBC provide 2025 dividend yields of 6.8% and 6.5% respectively. BUY DBS (Target: S$43.25), followed by OCBC (Target: S$18.15).
Recent comments by US Fed officials raise the spectre of zero interest rate cuts should the US economy remain robust. We view Singapore corporates’ debt levels as manageable across the companies we cover, with free cash flow generation forecast to remain strong in 2024. Nevertheless, some companies’ profit margins could erode in 2024 should interest rate cuts be deferred into 2025, eg WIL, CDL, CLI, SCI and KEP. Companies with high cash piles (eg VALUE, GENS and YZJ) could benefit.
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: April Conviction Calls: Adding AIA, Midea, Hansoh Pharmaceutical, Shenzhen Inovance and Trip.com to our BUY list, with SELL calls on BYD, EVE Energy, and Li Auto. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Outperformance In Mar 24 and 1Q24: Our picks are ACES, BBTN, CMRY, SIDO, EXCL, MAPI, JSMR, CTRA, and AKRA. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Expanding The Variety Of Events Bets: Our Alpha Picks trounced the KLCI in Mar 24. Apr 24 picks: GENM, Inari, Mah Sing, MrDIY, MY...
Interest rates have peaked but the pace of monetary easing is uneven. The ECB is likely to cut interest rates ahead of the FED. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. Our top picks are hospitality and retail plays, which benefit from a continued recovery in visitor arrivals and resilient consumer spending: BUY CLAS (Target: S$1.45), FEHT (Target: S$0.82), FCT (Target: S$2.73) and LREIT (Target: S$0.93). BUY FLT (Target: S$1.52) and KDCREIT (Target: S$2.10) due to a high proportion of Euro-denominated borrowings.
Our Alpha Picks portfolio rose 6.0% mom on an equal-weighted basis, outperforming the STI by a material 3.4ppt. The outperformance was driven by broad-based strength across most of our portfolio with the best showing coming from Riverstone, Yangzijiang Shipbuilding and Singtel. In 1Q24, our Alpha Picks portfolio surged by 13.7% qoq, surpassing the STI by a hefty 14.2ppt qoq. For Apr 24, we add CSE and LREIT while removing MINT, CVL and FEH.
nterest rates in OECD countries have already peaked. Based on the latest summary of economic projections, FOMC participants expect three rate cuts of 25bp in 2024 and the Fed Funds Rate to ease to 4.5% by end-24. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. Our top picks are hospitality and retail plays, which benefit from continued recovery in visitor arrivals and resilient consumer spending. BUY CLAS (Target: S$1.45), FCT (Target: S$2.73), FEHT (Target: S$0.82) and LREIT (Target: S$0.93).
For the 21 S-REITs under our coverage, five were above expectations with eight below expectations. The hospitality sub-sector registered the strongest NPI growth, averaging 13% yoy. We saw positive rental reversions across retail, office and logistics properties. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. Focus on blue chip S-REITs with resilient balance sheets. BUY CLAS (Target: S$1.45), FCT (Target: S$2.73), FEHT (Target: S$0.82), FLT (Target: S$1.65) and LREIT (Target: S$0.93).
A director at Wilmar International Limited bought 2,053,500 shares at 3.326SGD and the significance rating of the trade was 67/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last ...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: March Conviction Call: Adding CMB, COLI, CR Beer, Kuaishou and TUL to our BUY list, closing out SELL calls. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Significant Outperformance In Feb 24: Our picks are BBTN, CMRY, SIDO, EXCL, MAPI, JSMR, CTRA, MYOR and AKRA. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Focusing On Earnings Momentum: Our Alpha Picks underperformed the KLCI in Feb 24 (-0.9% vs 2.5%). Mar 24 picks significantly feature companies with good earnings momentum. SINGAPORE...
CPO prices are expected to trade in the range of RM3,800-4,200/tonne for 2024, higher in 1H24 (tight vegoil supply) but seeing some softness in 3Q24 with more vegoil supply coming into the market. The impact from El Nino would be minimal on Malaysia’s production and mild on Indonesia’s production. Demand would still remain sluggish and the market only expects huge imports when CPO prices are lower. Maintain OVERWEIGHT; prefer efficient upstream players with good production growth.
GREATER CHINA Economics PMI A mixed bag, weakness persists. Strategy Alpha Picks: March Conviction Call Adding CMB, COLI, CR Beer, Kuaishou and TUL to our BUY list, closing out SELL calls. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Significant Outperformance In Feb 24 Our picks are BBTN, CMRY, SIDO, EXCL, MAPI, JSMR, CTRA, MYOR and AKRA. Results Nippon Indosari Corpindo (ROTI IJ/HOLD/Rp1,225/Target: Rp1,200) 4Q23: High return rate caused 38.9% yoy decline in NPAT. Downgrade to HOLD. PP London Sumatra...
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Strategy Alpha Picks: Outperformance Led By Small/Mid-Caps; Add RSTON; Remove SATS And Valuetronics: Our Alpha Picks portfolio rose 1.6% mom in Feb 24, outperforming the FSSTI’s loss of 0.4% as more than half of our portfolio delivered gains of 0.7-23.1% mom. Sector REITs: S-REITs monthly update (Feb 24). Results ComfortDelGro Corporation (CD SP/BUY/S$1.36/Target: S$1.58): 2023: In line with expectations; bright spots in 2024. Delfi (DELFI SP/HOLD/S$0.965/Target: S$1.070): 202...
SATS’ 3QFY24 headline net profit of S$31.5m (+42.5% qoq) was within our guided range of S$25m-35m. Excluding a sizeable forex loss, 3QFY24 earnings would have been at close to S$40m, beating our forecasted range. We expect SATS’ earnings to remain on the recovery track for the next 1.5 years, driven by business volume recovery/growth as well as potential pass-through of inflationary cost pressure to its customers. Maintain BUY with an unchanged target price of S$3.22.
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