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Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

More Upside Expected; Upgrading Health Care Since early November 2023 we have laid out our bullish expectations for a year-end rally that we discussed would continue into the early part of 2024. Here we are in the early part of 2024, and we see every reason to continue riding this bull market higher. Bullish Outlook Intact. The S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and DJI are breaking out to new all-time highs, while the small-cap Russell 2000 (IWM), mid-cap S&P 400 (IJH), Vanguard Extended Market ETF (VXF), ...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Bullish Outlook Intact; Downgrading Communications The market remains in "lockout rally" mode, where prices continue to move higher with little-to-no pullbacks, while ignoring overbought readings. There is no reason to fight this bullish trend, and we continue to expect a rally into year-end and the early part of 2024. Lockout Rally Continues. In our 12/4/23 ETF Pathfinder we discussed how this is a very strong market that is not likely to pull back -- and the surge higher has continued. The S...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Still Riding the Trend Higher; Upgrading Real Estate to Market Weight After discussing our expectations for a bounce in our 10/30/23 ETF Pathfinder with the Russell 2000 (IWM) testing major support at $162-$163, we outlined in our 11/20/23 ETF Pathfinder that we were shifting our outlook to bullish. Market-generated information has continued to be of the risk-on variety, which has only reinforced our bullish outlook on the broad equity market. Therefore, we continue to expect a rally into year-...

Gary Brode
  • Gary Brode
Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

ETF Pathfinder: Expecting More Upside Ahead; Upgrading Cap-Weighted Technology (XLK) and Communications (XLC) to Overweight; Downgrading Health Care (XLV) to Underweight

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

S&P 500 Testing 4165-4200 Resistance In our 4/3/23 ETF Pathfinder we noted that a test of 4165-4200 was in play on the S&P 500, and it made a high of 4169 last week. We still believe 4165-4200 will cap upside in 2023 -- with a reach to 4300-4325 also possible -- but considering limited upside, we recommend shifting toward defensives including Utilities (XLU, RYU), Consumer Staples (XLP), Health Care (XLV, PPH), and gold miners (GDX). Downside targets on the S&P 500 continue to be at the Decembe...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Today's Fed Day to Determine Next Big Market Move? The S&P 500, Russell 2000 (IWM), and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) continue to have trouble breaking above their respective 200-day MAs and YTD downtrends, while the Dow Jones Industrials Average (DJIA) has been unable to sustain a breakout above 34,280. With that said, all four of these indexes are consolidating within tight ranges just below the aforementioned resistance levels, building energy for the eventual breakdown or breakout. We continue to recomm...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Testing YTD Lows; 2.5-Yr Commodity Uptrend Breaking In our previous ETF Pathfinder (Sept. 6) we discussed how key supports were being tested at 3900 on the S&P 500, $293-294 on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and $178 on the Russell 2000 (IWM), and that breaks below these levels would virtually guarantee a test of the YTD lows -- or worse. Those support levels have broken, and we are now getting a test of the YTD lows. With so many indexes and key Sectors (e.g., Financials, Industrials, Technology) curren...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Headwinds Persist In last week's Compass (Aug. 23) we discussed the increasing odds for a deeper pullback in the broad market indexes due to 5-week uptrend breaks on the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Russell 2000, the Fed tightening, and with Treasury yields, the U.S. dollar (DXY), and commodities (DJP) inflecting higher. We continue to see the market as being in pullback mode; the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Russell 2000 are all approaching 50-day MA support, the first big area of interest on this pul...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Fed Set to Hike 50 bps As Indexes Test Support We have warned over the past month that a test of the lows, and possibly a break to new lows, is increasingly likely on the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM). This has played-out as we recently made marginal new lows amid additional indiscriminate selling on Tuesday and Friday last week. There is potential for an oversold bounce, but we will need to see back-to-back 80%+ upside volume days or one 90%+ upside volume day on the NYSE i...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Commodity & Defensive Sectors Remain Leadership Much of the recent strength in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has been driven by a select few mega-cap growth names, while the Russell 2000 (IWM) and Russel Micro Caps (IWC) have not been able to reclaim important $209 and $134 resistance levels, respectively. This bifurcation between mega- and small/micro-caps can continue, but it is not the type of breadth that supports a sustainable new bull market. However, there continues to be several attr...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Downgrading Technology To Underweight Our outlook remains bearish at the index level considering we have yet to see any developments that suggest a bottom is in, and the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), Russell 2000 (IWM), and Russell Micro Cap (IWC) indexes remain in downtrends. Sector Relative Strength Rankings. We are downgrading Technology to underweight; RS is trading within multi-month downtrends and is breaking below major support on the cap- and equal-weighted Sectors (XLK, RYT) -- reduce ex...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Overweight Defensives & Commodity Sectors Market dynamics are almost exclusively bearish and our key “lines in the sand” on the major indexes are being violated amid the escalating Russia/Ukraine war. This includes 4257 on the S&P 500, $334 on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and 33,250 on the Dow Jones Industrial Average, while the Russell 2000 (IWM) and Russel Micro Caps (IWC) have been below the important $209 and $134 levels, respectively, since mid-January. As long as prices are below the aforementio...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Important "lines in the sand" have broken since our last ETF Pathfinder (Jan. 18), including $208 on the Russell 2000 index (IWM) and $134 on the Russell Micro Cap index (IWC); we are bearish on these indexes as long as they remain below their previous support levels. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) display uptrend violations and some sideways consolidation is likely; as long as 4257 and $334 supports hold, respectively, we cannot get too bearish. Breaks below these levels would sign...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Index Supports Breaking; Upgrading Utilities Indexes continue to violate our key "lines in the sand" as the Russell 2000 (IWM) broke below $208, the S&P 500 broke below 4495, and the equal-weighted Nasdaq 100 (QQEW) broke below $109. This type of damage paints a bearish picture at the index level, and will take some time to repair. Now that key supports have been violated, we are monitoring for oversold conditions that could mark a bottom. It is possible that yesterday's reversal could mark "th...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Market Sending Mixed Signals; Stick With Value The market continues to send a mix of risk-on and risk-off signals, though most of the risk-on signals are centered around value Sectors such as Energy, Financials, Manufacturing/Industrials, and Materials (currently our favorite areas). Meanwhile, some of our big picture "lines in the sand" are being violated, including the Russell Micro Caps index (IWC) which is breaking below $134 as the Russell 2000 index (IWM) tests critical support at $207.50...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Risk-Off Signals Abating In our last Compass (Dec. 22), we pointed out that despite conflicting signals (some neutral or healthy signals but some risk-off signals as well), our bottom line is that we could not be bearish as long as the Russell 2000 index (IWM) is above $208, the Russell Micro Caps index (IWC) is above $134-$135, and the S&P 500 is above 4495. These support levels have held strong, and we are now seeing the aforementioned risk-off signals starting to abate. This is an encouragin...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Upgrading Technology, Downgrading Communications The Russell 2000 (IWM) displays a false breakout and has now fallen back into the horizontal trading range that has plagued it for most of 2021. This false breakout combined with deteriorating breadth has us on watch for a potential breakdown below $208 on IWM and $135 on IWC. As long as these supports hold we expect more consolidation and mixed markets ahead. On the other hand, we would turn bearish on breakdowns. Upgrading Technology, Downgrad...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Bullish Outlook Intact; Mining For Gold As highlighted in last week's U.S. Macro Vision, our outlook is now bullish as we saw the breakouts we needed in the Russell 2000 (IWM) and Industrials (XLI). Considering these breakouts along with ongoing healthy market dynamics, we continue to believe we have officially entered a new broad-based bull market. Materials Breaking Out To New Highs, Joins Other Cyclicals. Materials (XLB) is the latest Sector to break out to new 2021 highs, providing more ev...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Upgrading Financials, Downgrading Communications Market dynamics remain healthy which suggests a new broad-based bull market is not far off. With that said, we are still waiting for confirmation in the form of breakouts for small-caps (IWM) and Industrials (XLI) in order to turn bullish. Upgrading Financials, Downgrading Communication Services. We are upgrading Financials to overweight with the Sector ETFs (XLF, RYF) and banks (KRE, KBE) breaking out to new highs -- add exposure. Additionally,...

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