reports
- Jean Danjou
ODDO : March down in double digit leads to a -6.3% decline in Q1 for S...
>Swiss watch exports: March down -16.1% leads to a Q1 at -6.3% y-o-y (luxury category also negative over the quarter at -2.8%) - - Over March 2024, exports amounted to CHF 2,002m down 16.1% y-o-y after -3.6% in February and +3.1% in January. This is a very weak figure but was obviously impacted to a good extent by a negative working days effect. On the whole, Q1 was down -6.3% (as a reminder: Q4 2023 witnessed +4.7% growth, FY 2023 growth ended at +7.6%). The l...
- Jean Danjou
ODDO : March down in double digit leads to a -6.3% decline in Q1 for S...
>Swiss watch exports: March down -16.1% leads to a Q1 at -6.3% y-o-y (luxury category also negative over the quarter at -2.8%) - - Over March 2024, exports amounted to CHF 2,002m down 16.1% y-o-y after -3.6% in February and +3.1% in January. This is a very weak figure but was obviously impacted to a good extent by a negative working days effect. On the whole, Q1 was down -6.3% (as a reminder: Q4 2023 witnessed +4.7% growth, FY 2023 growth ended at +7.6%). The l...
- Baptiste Salaville
- Bruno Cavalier
- Jean Danjou
ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 15/04/2024
The logistics market is our preferred real estate segment, where the coming growth remains undervalued. We prefer the high growth stock within this segment, CTP. We also have Outperform recommendations on Argan, Montea and VGP. We believe WDP is fully valued, though. - ...
UHR SWATCH GROUP LTD. BEARER
RMS HERMES INTERNATIONAL SCA
SW SODEXO SA
EL ESSILORLUXOTTICA SA
BRBY BURBERRY GROUP PLC
KER KERING SA
01913 PRADA S.P.A.
BC8 BECHTLE AG
ELI ELIA GROUP SA/NV
MONC MONCLER SPA
BC BRUNELLO CUCINELLI S.P.A.
CFR COMPAGNIE FINANCIERE RICHEMONT SA
SAP SAP SE
- Baptiste Salaville
- Bruno Cavalier
- Jean Danjou
ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 04/15/2024
The logistics market is our preferred real estate segment, where the coming growth remains undervalued. We prefer the high growth stock within this segment, CTP. We also have Outperform recommendations on Argan, Montea and VGP. We believe WDP is fully valued, though. - ...
UHR SWATCH GROUP LTD. BEARER
RMS HERMES INTERNATIONAL SCA
SW SODEXO SA
EL ESSILORLUXOTTICA SA
BRBY BURBERRY GROUP PLC
KER KERING SA
01913 PRADA S.P.A.
BC8 BECHTLE AG
ELI ELIA GROUP SA/NV
MONC MONCLER SPA
BC BRUNELLO CUCINELLI S.P.A.
CFR COMPAGNIE FINANCIERE RICHEMONT SA
SAP SAP SE
- Jean Danjou
ODDO : Monday review – Luxury sector
>Topic of the week: no party planned this earnings season - If the most recent trends for luxury stocks are to be taken seriously, expectations related to the coming Q1 earnings season must have been seriously downgraded over the last weeks. The sector as a whole now witnesses a YTD gain below 10% and modestly above the one visible on the Stoxx 600; Hermès aside, it is trading at a discount versus pre-Covid. If a few franchises with above average brand momentum and/or...
- Jean Danjou
ODDO : Monday review – Luxury sector
>Topic of the week: no party planned this earnings season - If the most recent trends for luxury stocks are to be taken seriously, expectations related to the coming Q1 earnings season must have been seriously downgraded over the last weeks. The sector as a whole now witnesses a YTD gain below 10% and modestly above the one visible on the Stoxx 600; Hermès aside, it is trading at a discount versus pre-Covid. If a few franchises with above average brand momentum and/or...
The Swatch Group AG: 1 director
A director at The Swatch Group AG sold 1,500 shares at 41.600CHF and the significance rating of the trade was 55/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clea...
- Ahmed Ben Salem
- Bruno Cavalier
EQNR EQUINOR ASA
GALP GALP ENERGIA SGPS SA CLASS B
MC LVMH MOET HENNESSY LOUIS VUITTON SE
UHR SWATCH GROUP LTD. BEARER
RMS HERMES INTERNATIONAL SCA
EL ESSILORLUXOTTICA SA
BRBY BURBERRY GROUP PLC
KER KERING SA
ALO ALSTOM SA
ENI ENI S.P.A.
RY4C RYANAIR HOLDINGS PLC
01913 PRADA S.P.A.
REP REPSOL SA
MONC MONCLER SPA
CFR COMPAGNIE FINANCIERE RICHEMONT SA
BP. BP P.L.C.
SHEL SHELL PLC
- Ahmed Ben Salem
- Bruno Cavalier
EQNR EQUINOR ASA
GALP GALP ENERGIA SGPS SA CLASS B
MC LVMH MOET HENNESSY LOUIS VUITTON SE
UHR SWATCH GROUP LTD. BEARER
RMS HERMES INTERNATIONAL SCA
EL ESSILORLUXOTTICA SA
BRBY BURBERRY GROUP PLC
KER KERING SA
ALO ALSTOM SA
ENI ENI S.P.A.
RY4C RYANAIR HOLDINGS PLC
01913 PRADA S.P.A.
REP REPSOL SA
MONC MONCLER SPA
CFR COMPAGNIE FINANCIERE RICHEMONT SA
BP. BP P.L.C.
SHEL SHELL PLC
- Jean Danjou
ODDO : Monday review – Luxury sector
>Topic of the week: let’s talk about prices - Above trend rises in unit prices have been a visible feature of the post-Covid strong revenue growth posted by the luxury industry at large. Historically, the annual growth of the sector runs at +8%/+10% on average with volume, price and mix contributing more or less equally but the post-Covid economic backdrop has allowed a faster pace of annual price rises: we estimate that the average price inflation ended up close to h...
- Jean Danjou
ODDO : Monday review – Luxury sector
>Topic of the week: let’s talk about prices - Above trend rises in unit prices have been a visible feature of the post-Covid strong revenue growth posted by the luxury industry at large. Historically, the annual growth of the sector runs at +8%/+10% on average with volume, price and mix contributing more or less equally but the post-Covid economic backdrop has allowed a faster pace of annual price rises: we estimate that the average price inflation ended up close to h...
- Bruno Cavalier
- Jean Danjou
MC LVMH MOET HENNESSY LOUIS VUITTON SE
UHR SWATCH GROUP LTD. BEARER
RMS HERMES INTERNATIONAL SCA
DAI DAIMLER AG
AGS AGEAS SA/NV
EL ESSILORLUXOTTICA SA
BRBY BURBERRY GROUP PLC
KER KERING SA
01913 PRADA S.P.A.
MONC MONCLER SPA
CFR COMPAGNIE FINANCIERE RICHEMONT SA
STM STMICROELECTRONICS NV
PHNX PHOENIX GROUP HOLDINGS PLC
- Bruno Cavalier
- Jean Danjou
MC LVMH MOET HENNESSY LOUIS VUITTON SE
UHR SWATCH GROUP LTD. BEARER
RMS HERMES INTERNATIONAL SCA
DAI DAIMLER AG
AGS AGEAS SA/NV
EL ESSILORLUXOTTICA SA
BRBY BURBERRY GROUP PLC
KER KERING SA
01913 PRADA S.P.A.
MONC MONCLER SPA
CFR COMPAGNIE FINANCIERE RICHEMONT SA
STM STMICROELECTRONICS NV
PHNX PHOENIX GROUP HOLDINGS PLC
- Jean Danjou
ODDO : Monday review – Luxury sector
>Topic of the week: reconcile this - Indications from Prada and Moncler suggest both groups should have witnessed double-digit growth again on an organic basis in Q1 and the very high end of luxury has likely enjoyed very healthy growth as well this quarter if we are to believe the latest message from Brunello Cucinelli. The overall sector has likely fared much worse in our view, Tod’s commented upon a weak January and mixed trends over February (with China still neg...
- Jean Danjou
ODDO : Monday review – Luxury sector
>Topic of the week: reconcile this - Indications from Prada and Moncler suggest both groups should have witnessed double-digit growth again on an organic basis in Q1 and the very high end of luxury has likely enjoyed very healthy growth as well this quarter if we are to believe the latest message from Brunello Cucinelli. The overall sector has likely fared much worse in our view, Tod’s commented upon a weak January and mixed trends over February (with China still neg...
- Jean Danjou
ODDO : Negative growth for Swiss watch exports in February 2024, read-...
>February Swiss watch exports: -3.8% after +3.2% the month before - In February 2024, y-o-y growth fell into negative territory at -3.8% after +3.2% in January in spite of a moderate positive effect from the number of working days. The YTD score over the first two months turned slightly negative at -0.7% (as a reminder: Q4 2023 saw +4.7% growth, FY 2023 growth ended at +7.6%). The luxury category (factory price > CHF 3,000) outperformed in February but was still nega...
- Jean Danjou
ODDO : Negative growth for Swiss watch exports in February 2024, read-...
>February Swiss watch exports: -3.8% after +3.2% the month before - In February 2024, y-o-y growth fell into negative territory at -3.8% after +3.2% in January in spite of a moderate positive effect from the number of working days. The YTD score over the first two months turned slightly negative at -0.7% (as a reminder: Q4 2023 saw +4.7% growth, FY 2023 growth ended at +7.6%). The luxury category (factory price > CHF 3,000) outperformed in February but was still nega...
- Baptiste Salaville
- Bruno Cavalier
- Jean Danjou
BMW BAYERISCHE MOTOREN WERKE AG
MC LVMH MOET HENNESSY LOUIS VUITTON SE
SSAB A SSAB AB CLASS A
UHR SWATCH GROUP LTD. BEARER
RMS HERMES INTERNATIONAL SCA
EL ESSILORLUXOTTICA SA
BRBY BURBERRY GROUP PLC
KER KERING SA
VNA VONOVIA SE
01913 PRADA S.P.A.
MONC MONCLER SPA
CFR COMPAGNIE FINANCIERE RICHEMONT SA
NN NN GROUP N.V.
HLAG HAPAG-LLOYD AG
- Baptiste Salaville
- Bruno Cavalier
- Gerardo Ibanez
- Steven Boumans
BMW BAYERISCHE MOTOREN WERKE AG
MC LVMH MOET HENNESSY LOUIS VUITTON SE
LI KLEPIERRE SA
COV COVIVIO SA
GFC GECINA SA
SSAB A SSAB AB CLASS A
NXI NEXITY SA CLASS A
UHR SWATCH GROUP LTD. BEARER
RMS HERMES INTERNATIONAL SCA
FLY SOCIETE FONCIERE LYONNAISE SA
GYC GRAND CITY PROPERTIES SA
MERY MERCIALYS SA
EL ESSILORLUXOTTICA SA
WHA WERELDHAVE N.V.
INTO INTERVEST OFFICES & WAREHOUSES SA
BRBY BURBERRY GROUP PLC
KOF KAUFMAN & BROAD SA
KER KERING SA
ALTA ALTAREA SCA
VNA VONOVIA SE
XIOR XIOR STUDENT HOUSING N.V.
DEQ DEUTSCHE EUROSHOP AG
ICAD ICADE SA
01913 PRADA S.P.A.
COFB COFINIMMO SA
VASTN VASTNED RETAIL NV
TEG TAG IMMOBILIEN AG
PSPN PSP SWISS PROPERTY AG
SPSN SWISS PRIME SITE AG
PAT PATRIZIA AG
MONT MONTEA SCA
AED AEDIFICA SA
CARM CARMILA SAS
LEG LEG IMMOBILIEN AG
MONC MONCLER SPA
CPINV CARE PROPERTY INVEST SA
ARG ARGAN SA
VGP VGP NV
CFR COMPAGNIE FINANCIERE RICHEMONT SA
COL INMOBILIARIA COLONIAL SOCIMI SA
DIC DIC ASSET AG
LRE LAR ESPANA REAL ESTATE SOCIMI SA
NN NN GROUP N.V.
MERLIN MERLIN PROPERTIES SOCIMI S.A.
DKG DEUTSCHE KONSUM REIT-AG
HLAG HAPAG-LLOYD AG
HOME NEINOR HOMES SA
AT1 AROUNDTOWN SA
MVC METROVACESA SA
NSI NSI N.V.
ULA UNIBAIL-RODAMCO-WESTFIELD SE STAPLED SECS CONS OF 1 SH UNIBAIL RODAMCO + 1 SH WFD UNIB ROD
INS INSTONE REAL ESTATE GROUP AG
AEDAS AEDAS HOMES SA
WDP WAREHOUSES DE PAUW SCA
ECMPA EUROCOMMERCIAL PROPERTIES NV
CTPNV CTP NV
SHUR SHURGARD SELF STORAGE LIMITED
- Jean Danjou
ODDO : Monday review – Luxury sector
>Topic of the week: the (not so) great expectations - How about Q1 growth by now for luxury? As we move into the final weeks of Q1, we take a look at the current expectations on Q1 growth as reflected by the most recent Visible Alpha consensus. For the sector as a whole, average growth was 4.1% which is close to our own top-down forecast of +3%/+4%. The same can be said as far as FY is concerned, average growth calculated by the consensus is slightly above 7%, not ver...
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