Another record year; on track for c10% EBIT growth in 2024 – Jumbo delivered 20% EBIT growth in FY23 thanks to 14% higher sales, resilient gross margins (-15bps yoy, albeit >3pps higher than 2019 levels) and opex savings (opex just +6% yoy). Coupled with net financial income given the debt-free balance sheet, Jumbo grew net profits by a whopping 22%, eclipsing the +20% embedded in our estimates a year ago. Mgt proposed another generous €1 DPS following the €0.6 paid in March, adding up to c6% yi...
A director at Tenaga Nasional Berhad sold 10,000 shares at 11.600MYR and the significance rating of the trade was 52/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years ...
Another record year; on track for c10% EBIT growth in 2024 – Jumbo delivered 20% EBIT growth in FY23 thanks to 14% higher sales, resilient gross margins (-15bps yoy, albeit >3pps higher than 2019 levels) and opex savings (opex just +6% yoy). Coupled with net financial income given the debt-free balance sheet, Jumbo grew net profits by a whopping 22%, eclipsing the +20% embedded in our estimates a year ago. Mgt proposed another generous €1 DPS following the €0.6 paid in March, adding up to c6% yi...
Digital Banks Ramping Up Deposit Competition? As the five digital banks prepare to commence operations in the coming months, we anticipate a focus on deposit acquisition, potentially impacting sector NIM slightly. Sector valuations have risen to a historical mean P/B of 1.10x, which appears fair against forecasted ROE of 10% and earnings growth of only 6% vs our KLCI earnings growth assumption of 11%. We maintain our MARKET WEIGHT recommendation on the sector. CIMB remains our preferred choice.
OVERWEIGHT on Indonesia banks as they offer the highest earnings growth in 2024/25 and benefit from the recent rally in commodity prices. We like Singapore banks for their attractive dividend yields. Our top BUYs are DBS (Target: S$43.25), CIMB (Target: RM7.33), SCB X (Target: Bt130) and BMRI (Target: Rp7,900). We also like OCBC (Target: S$18.15), RHB (Target: RM6.18) and BBNI (Target: Rp6,300) as attractive yield plays.
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: April Conviction Calls: Adding AIA, Midea, Hansoh Pharmaceutical, Shenzhen Inovance and Trip.com to our BUY list, with SELL calls on BYD, EVE Energy, and Li Auto. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Outperformance In Mar 24 and 1Q24: Our picks are ACES, BBTN, CMRY, SIDO, EXCL, MAPI, JSMR, CTRA, and AKRA. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Expanding The Variety Of Events Bets: Our Alpha Picks trounced the KLCI in Mar 24. Apr 24 picks: GENM, Inari, Mah Sing, MrDIY, MY...
Risk To Reward Remains Well Balanced Loans growth edged upwards to 5.8% in Feb 24 (Jan 24: 5.7%) on the recovery in both the HH and business segments and household loans. We anticipate a 5.5-6.0% system loans growth for 2024, implying a 1.18x loans to GDP growth multiple which is in line with its 10-year mean. We find the sector’s risk to reward well-balanced (mean valuation) in the absence of strong catalysts. The sector’s 2024 earnings growth is expected to lag the broader equity market. Maint...
Loans growth edged upwards to 5.8% in Feb 24 (Jan 24: 5.7%) on the recovery in both the HH and business segments and household loans. We anticipate a 5.5-6.0% system loans growth for 2024, implying a 1.18x loans to GDP growth multiple which is in line with its 10-year mean. We find the sector’s risk to reward well-balanced (mean valuation) in the absence of strong catalysts. The sector’s 2024 earnings growth is expected to lag the broader equity market. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT with CIMB being our...
2H23 Financial Stability Report: Vigilant Of Potential Macroeconomic Headwinds BNM released its 2H23 financial stability report. It believes Malaysian financial institutions remain well insulated from potential financial volatility arising from the normalisation of interest rates in developed countries. However, it remains vigilant of the impact of input cost pressures from lower subsidies and a weaker ringgit on asset quality going forward. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT as current risk to reward remai...
4Q23: Muted Earnings Outcome The sector delivered a muted earnings growth of 1% yoy in 4Q23 while contracting 8% qoq on NIM compression and higher provisions. As the sector is trading at its historical mean valuation and is expected to lag the FBMKLCI’s earnings growth, we perceive the current risk-to-reward ratio as well-balanced. In the absence of meaningful earnings catalysts, maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the sector. CIMB remains our top pick.
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: March Conviction Call: Adding CMB, COLI, CR Beer, Kuaishou and TUL to our BUY list, closing out SELL calls. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Significant Outperformance In Feb 24: Our picks are BBTN, CMRY, SIDO, EXCL, MAPI, JSMR, CTRA, MYOR and AKRA. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Focusing On Earnings Momentum: Our Alpha Picks underperformed the KLCI in Feb 24 (-0.9% vs 2.5%). Mar 24 picks significantly feature companies with good earnings momentum. SINGAPORE...
Management expects BJC’s 2024 top-line to improve by 7-9% yoy and gross margin to grow by up to 100bp. However, we are conservative and maintain our 2024 earnings growth forecast of 11% yoy, based on a 4.6% top-line growth and a 30bp increase in gross margin. We are still positive on a 2024 earnings recovery on the back of a sales improvement and lower cost pressure. Maintain BUY. Target price: Bt32.00.
REGIONAL Sector Plantation: We cherry-pick efficient companies with good production growth to leverage good CPO prices to mitigate any unforeseen CPO price volatility. GREATER CHINA Strategy Small-Mid Cap Monthly: Eyeing near-term catalysts for humanoid robot plays. Initiate Coverage SF Holding (002352 CH/BUY/Rmb38.05/Target: Rmb46.00): China’s leading integrated logistics player; riding China’s growing domestic logistics demand while international expansion, its second growth curve, is also ta...
GREATER CHINA Sector Automobile: Weekly: PEV market share rebounds; price war heats up. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Top SELLs: XPeng. Top BUY: CATL, Tuopu and Desay SV. Results Budweiser APAC (1876 HK/BUY/HK$12.68/Target: HK$19.50): 2023: Results miss; mixed signals from the results. Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (388 HK/HOLD/HK$242.80/Target: HK$262.00): 4Q23: Passable results. Maintain HOLD. NetEase (9999 HK/BUY/HK$176.20/Target: HK$202.00): 4Q23: Earnings miss; upcoming blockbusters in 2024. New...
2QFY24: Supported By Strong Showing From Associate And Write-backs HL Bank reported 2QFY24 earnings that were in line, supported by strong performance from associate and a net provision write-back. We expect credit cost write-backs to normalise in 2HFY24. Maintain HOLD and target price of RM21.74 (11.3% ROE and 1.26x FY24 P/B). We note that HL Bank’s current valuation is not particularly attractive with current P/B at only 0.5SD below its historical P/B mean.
3QFY24: Robust Loans Growth Stifled By Negative JAWS 3QFY24 earnings in line. Alliance Bank Malaysia (Alliance Bank) reported 3QFY24 net profit of RM176.9m (-0.1% yoy, -4.6% qoq), bringing 9MFY24 earnings to RM512.7m (-6.4% yoy). 9MFY23 earnings represent 77% of our full-year forecast, and we deem the results in line as we expect net credit cost to trend upwards in 4QFY24. 9MFY24 earnings shrunk 6.4% yoy amid higher loans growth (+10.1% yoy) as it was offset by lower NIM (-3bp) and negative oper...
2023: Results Below Expectation; Higher Opex Offsets Positive Fuel Margin TNB booked a weak 4Q23 core net profit of RM763m (-11% qoq, +33% yoy) vs our expectation of RM1b profit per quarter. This brings 2023 core net profit to RM3,735m (- 19% yoy), below our expectations. 2023 earnings were below normalised earnings of RM4-4.5b due to a negative fuel margin of RM620m vs a positive fuel margin of RM1.1b in 2022. Maintain HOLD with a DCF-based target price of RM10.70. The stock offers dividend yie...
GREATER CHINA Sector Banking: It is the best of times, it is the worst of times. INDONESIA Results Matahari Department Store (LPPF IJ/SELL/Rp1,840/Target: Rp1,400): 4Q23: Below expectations with a cautious view on 2024. Downgrade to SELL. MALAYSIA Results Heineken Malaysia (HEIM MK/BUY/RM22.34/Target: RM28.50): 4Q23: Within expectations. Earnings fell yoy as weaker sentiment impacted sales volume. MISC (MISC MK/BUY/RM7.50/Target: RM9.05): 2023: Profit beat forecasts despite rising vessel cos...
BJC’s 4Q23 net profit came in at Bt1,638m, flat yoy but up 136% qoq. The yoy improvement was mainly due to higher gross margins from all businesses, but this was offset by higher SGA-to-sales and interest expenses. We expect 2024’s earnings to grow 11% yoy. Currently, BJC is trading at 19.8x 2024F PE, which is equivalent to -2SD to its PE mean. Maintain BUY. Target price: Bt32.00.
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