reports
- Damon Shen
- Jieqi Liu
China Strategy: China Construction And Property -- Key beneficiaries o...
On 12 October, the MoF announced a plan to resolve the hidden debt risks of local governments, potentially improving the cash flow of infrastructure projects and benefitting SOE contractors. The expansion of the use of special bonds will further strengthen the destocking policy, bringing total low-cost funding to approximately Rmb1t per our estimation. There is a stronger policy mix this time, but implementation remains to be tested. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top picks: CSCEC, CR Land and Longfor.
- Damon Shen
- Jieqi Liu
China Property: Stronger policy combo expanding the trading range; str...
Beijing becomes the last tier 1 city to announce the relaxation of HPRs but saw the strongest sales rebound. We expect recovery of sales volume in the following month, driven by relaxation of HPRs in tier 1 cities. The strength of the recovery is yet to be tested. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Despite a cautious view on fundamentals, we do think improved liquidity and support in the stock market will positively drive valuation. Raise target prices of CR Land/COLI/Longfor on higher multiples. CR Land r...
- Damon Shen
- Jieqi Liu
China Property: Near trough valuation priced in the negatives and open...
Industry fundamentals continue to deteriorate in Sep 24, with sales momentum in the primary and secondary markets further weakened and listing price in a downward trend. There is some talk of destocking policies but little action. The trough valuation has priced in all the negatives. Potential monetary easing may accelerate SOEs’ destocking progress and resolve risks. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the sector. Our top pick is CR Land, which is trading at a 2024 yield of 7.2%.
- Arsit Pamaranont
- Damon Shen
- Heidi Mo Jinghui
- Jieqi Liu
- John Cheong Ming Chern
- Kate Luang
- Nurul Nazira Binti Abdullah
- Paula Ruth
- Thanawat Thangchadakorn
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Tuesday, September 24, 2024
GREATER CHINA Strategy Small-Mid Cap Monthly Solid growth momentum into 8M24, reiterate BUY on Plover Bay Technologies and raise target price to HK$6.10. Sector Property Trough valuation has priced in the weak industry fundamentals and poor policy implementation; poised for potential monetary easing. INDONESIA Update Erajaya Swasembada (ERAA IJ/BUY/Rp458/...
01109 CHINA RESOURCES LAND LIMITED
SCNR SUNAC CHINA HOLDINGS LTD.
RLF LONGFOR GROUP HOLDINGS LTD.
KBANK KASIKORNBANK PUBLIC CO. LTD.
ERAA ERAJAYA SWASEMBADA
MSGB MAH SING GROUP BHD
ECW ECO WORLD DEVELOPMENT GROUP
SPSB SP SETIA BHD
SWB SUNWAY BHD
TXG 10X GENOMICS INC CLASS A
UEMS UEM SUNRISE BHD
709 GIORDANO INTERNATIONAL LTD
MCH MATRIX CONCEPTS HOLDINGS BHD
TWC TIONG WOON CORPORATION HOLDING
2232 CRYSTAL INTERNATIONAL GROUP LTD
Z29 029 GROUP SE
IOIPG IOI PROPERTIES GROUP BHD
LAGENDA LAGENDA PROPERTIES BHD
1523 PLOVER BAY TECHNOLOGIES LTD (1523 HK)
- Greater China Research Team
Greater China Strategy Alpha Picks: September conviction calls.
The MSCI China rose 0.8% in August, trailing the HSI’s 3.7%, as the former was weighed by the weaker performance of utilities, materials and consumer staples. Looking ahead, we opine that the Fed rate cut in Sep 24 should be priced in and we do not expect ratesensitive sectors to outperform. We are adding AIA, COLI, Desay SV, Galaxy Entertainment, Meituan, Ping An and The United Laboratories to our BUY list. We remain cautious on the EV sector, adding Li Auto to our SELL list.
SXC SUNNY OPTICAL TECHNOLOGY (GROUP) CO. LTD.
01299 AIA GROUP LIMITED
00027 GALAXY ENTERTAINMENT GROUP LIMITED
00700 TENCENT HOLDINGS LTD.
2318 PING AN INSURANCE (GROUP) COMPANY OF CHINA LTD. CLASS H
03690 MEITUAN CLASS B
3933 THE UNITED LABORATORIES INTE
TCOM TRIP.COM GROUP LTD. SPONSORED ADR
BEKE KE HOLDINGS INC. SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
002920 HUIZHOU DESAY SV AUTOMOTIVE CO LTD
02423 KE HOLDINGS INC.
2232 CRYSTAL INTERNATIONAL GROUP LTD
02015 LI AUTO INC
09868 XPENG INC
09961 CTRIP.COM INTERNATIONAL
- Damon Shen
- Jieqi Liu
China Overseas Land & Investment (688 HK): 1H24: Excels in sustaining...
Dropping by 23% yoy and equivalent to 50.4% of our annual estimation, COLI’s 1H24 core net profit is largely as expected. It is noteworthy that COLI managed to keep a relatively stable gross profit margin (22.1%) in the current property market downturn. COLI targets for stable contracted sales in 2024, backed by a robust saleable value of Rmb550b for 2H24. Our outlook remains positive regarding COLI's competitiveness in profitability. Keep earnings forecast and maintain BUY. Target price: HK$17....
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Carol Dou Xiao Qin
- Damon Shen
- Greater China Research Team
- Jieqi Liu
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ken Lee
- Kenny Yong Hui Lim
- Ming San Soong
- Ringo Tang Chi Yu
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
- Shirley Wang Xueyi
- Stella Guo Yuting
- Sunny Chen
- Ziv Ang Sze Champ
Greater China Daily: Thursday, August 29, 2024
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results Anhui Conch Cement (914 HK/BUY/HK$16.46/Target: HK$19.50) Anhui Conch reported 1H24 earnings of Rmb3,325.6m (-48.6% yoy), representing 29% of our full-year estimate and below expectations. Gross margin for self-produced products fell to 23.0% (-4.6ppt yoy). The slump in cement ASP of 21.6% was steeper than the 16.0% reduction in cement’s unit production cost. 1H24 cement and clinker sales volume declined to 126m tonnes (-3.4% yoy), and management expects 2024 demand to...
00688 CHINA OVERSEAS LAND & INVESTMENT LIMITED
PRU PRUDENTIAL PLC
000858 WULIANGYE YIBIN CO. LTD. CLASS A
01109 CHINA RESOURCES LAND LIMITED
002352 S.F. HOLDING CO. LTD. CLASS A
0914 ANHUI CONCH CEMENT COMPANY LIMITED CLASS H
1211 BYD COMPANY LIMITED CLASS H
03690 MEITUAN CLASS B
06862 HAIDILAO INTERNATIONAL HOLDING LTD.
01801 INNOVENT BIOLOGICS INC.
01209 CHINA RESOURCES MIXC LIFESTYLE SERVICES (RED CHIP)
06690 HAIER SMART HOME CO. LTD. CLASS H
02015 LI AUTO INC
- Damon Shen
- Jieqi Liu
China Property: Trim earnings estimates for Chinese developers amid AS...
With an accelerated decline of national property prices in 1H24 and the weakening of national retail sales in Jun 24, developers’ margin is under pressure. We had channel checks with CR Land/COLI/Longfor and trim our earnings estimate and target price. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on China’s property sector. CR Land remains our top pick.
- Damon Shen
- Jieqi Liu
China Property: The Third Plenum has released the roadmap to a new mod...
The comprehensive reform plans released on 21 July point to two key trends in the next five years: a) government housing makes a much higher contribution to housing supply, and b) the private residential sector will contract in size but improve in quality. The future looks rosy but the road to the new model is not a smooth one, with a possible change of the pre-sale regime and potential introduction of the property holding tax. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top pick: CR Land.
- Adrian Loh Tzum Yung
- Anas Fitri Bin Ahmad
- Carol Dou Xiao Qin
- Chong Lee Len
- Damon Shen
- Jack Goh Tooan Orng
- Jack Lai Yuan Khai
- Jieqi Liu
- Jonathan Koh
- Kitpon Praipaisarnkit
- Krit Tanarattananon
- Limartha Adhiputra
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
- Sunny Chen
- Tham Mun Hon
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Tuesday, July 16, 2024
GREATER CHINA Economics Economic Activity 2Q24 growth below expectations. Strategy China And Hong Kong Property Sharper property price decline in 1H24 weighing on margins of Chinese developers; upcoming interest rate cut to support value of Hong Kong retail landlords. Update Kingmed Diagnostics (603882 CH/BUY/Rmb38.10/Target: Rmb35.00) 1H24 and 2024 results under pressu...
00016 SUN HUNG KAI PROPERTIES LIMITED
00823 LINK REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST
CPF CHAROEN POKPHAND FOODS PUBLIC CO. LTD.
S63 SINGAPORE TECHNOLOGIES ENGINEERING LTD
01109 CHINA RESOURCES LAND LIMITED
SCNR SUNAC CHINA HOLDINGS LTD.
RLF LONGFOR GROUP HOLDINGS LTD.
TU THAI UNION GROUP PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
ADVANC ADVANCED INFO SERVICE PUBLIC CO. LTD.
00014 HYSAN DEVELOPMENT CO. LTD.
SMRA PT SUMMARECON AGUNG TBK
KBANK KASIKORNBANK PUBLIC CO. LTD.
5347 TENAGA NASIONAL BHD
01997 WHARF REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT CO. LTD.
MLK MALAKOFF CORP BHD
MTC MUANGTHAI CAPITAL PCL
CPALL TB CP ALL
GMB GAS MALAYSIA BHD
OSP OSOTSPA PUBLIC CO. LTD.
TXG 10X GENOMICS INC CLASS A
603882 GUANGZHOU KINGMED DIAGNOSTICS GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
CICT CAPITALAND INTEGRATED COMMERCIAL TRUST
SCGP SCG PACKAGING PCL
TIDLOR NGERN TID LOR PCL
00017 NEW WORLD DEVELOPMENT CO. LTD.
CK CH. KARNCHANG PUBLIC CO LTD
Z29 029 GROUP SE
BTG BETAGRO PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
PEKAT PEKAT GROUP BHD
- Damon Shen
- Jieqi Liu
China Property: Channel checks and observations of Shanghai and Shenzh...
In Shanghai, the secondary market saw volume rebound. The transaction volume of oldsmall apartments within the outer rings of Shanghai increased significantly due to higher purchase demand after policy easing. The new home market is recovering but is weaker than the secondary home market. However, there are rising doubts about the sustainability of sales recovery. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top picks: CR Land and Longfor.
- Damon Shen
- Jieqi Liu
China and Hong Kong Property Strategy: Major SOE Developers See Sales ...
For the mainland property market: a) both new and secondary home sales in core cities improved, and b) SOEs saw sales rebound in Jun 24. For Hong Kong’s property market: a) it entered the low sales season, b) approval of automatic land lease renewal marginally improved buyer sentiment, and c) an increase in the duty-free quota was below expectations. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the China and Hong Kong property sectors. Downgrade the Hong Kong landlord sector to MARKET WEIGHT. Prefer the China prop...
- Damon Shen
- Greater China Research Team
- Jieqi Liu
- Jo Yee Ng
- Shirley Wang Xueyi
- Stella Guo Yuting
- Tham Mun Hon
Greater China Daily: Tuesday, July 02, 2024
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Economics PMI: Manufacturing PMI below 50% for a second month. Strategy China And Hong Kong Property: Major SOE developers saw sales rebound in June; policy support for Hong Kong tourism weaker-than-expected. Sector Macau Gaming: Jun 24 GGR down 12% mom, missing expectations. HSI AND HS TECH INDEX OUTLOOK
00016 SUN HUNG KAI PROPERTIES LIMITED
00823 LINK REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST
01109 CHINA RESOURCES LAND LIMITED
SCNR SUNAC CHINA HOLDINGS LTD.
RLF LONGFOR GROUP HOLDINGS LTD.
00014 HYSAN DEVELOPMENT CO. LTD.
00027 GALAXY ENTERTAINMENT GROUP LIMITED
599A SANDS CHINA LTD.
01997 WHARF REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT CO. LTD.
00017 NEW WORLD DEVELOPMENT CO. LTD.
- Damon Shen
- Jieqi Liu
- Jo Yee Ng
- Jonathan Koh
- Kitpon Praipaisarnkit
- Krit Tanarattananon
- Limartha Adhiputra
- Malaysia Research Team
- Shirley Wang Xueyi
- Stella Guo Yuting
- Thailand Research Team
- Tham Mun Hon
- Vincent Khoo Boo Aik
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Tuesday, July 02, 2024
GREATER CHINA Economics PMI Manufacturing PMI below 50% for a second month. Strategy China And Hong Kong Property Major SOE developers saw sales rebound in June; policy support for Hong Kong tourism weaker-than-expected. Sector Macau Gaming Jun 24 GGR down 12% mom, missing expectations. INDONESIA Results Vale In...
00688 CHINA OVERSEAS LAND & INVESTMENT LIMITED
00016 SUN HUNG KAI PROPERTIES LIMITED
FCT FRASERS CENTREPOINT TRUST
00823 LINK REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST
01109 CHINA RESOURCES LAND LIMITED
SCNR SUNAC CHINA HOLDINGS LTD.
RLF LONGFOR GROUP HOLDINGS LTD.
AJBU KEPPEL DC REIT
TU THAI UNION GROUP PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
ADVANC ADVANCED INFO SERVICE PUBLIC CO. LTD.
00014 HYSAN DEVELOPMENT CO. LTD.
00027 GALAXY ENTERTAINMENT GROUP LIMITED
INCO VALE INDONESIA
599A SANDS CHINA LTD.
CPN CENTRAL PATTANA PUBLIC CO. LTD.
01997 WHARF REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT CO. LTD.
CDREIT CDL HOSPITALITY TRUSTS
SUN SUNTECH SA
KREIT KEPPEL REIT
MLT MAPLETREE LOGISTICS TRUST
FEHT FAR EAST HOSPITALITY TRUST
GAM GAMUDA BHD
VSI V.S. INDUSTRY BERHAD
PREIT PARKWAYLIFE REAL ESTATE
MYEG MY EG SERVICES BHD
MINT MAPLETREE INDUSTRIAL TRUST
BURSA BURSA MALAYSIA BHD
MSGB MAH SING GROUP BHD
PMAH PRESS METAL ALUMINIUM HOLDIN
CPALL TB CP ALL
SASSR SASSEUR REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST
RATCH RATCH GROUP PUBLIC CO. LTD.
MUST MANULIFE US REAL ESTATE INV
TXG 10X GENOMICS INC CLASS A
EKO EKOVEST BHD
RGB RGB INTERNATIONAL BHD
UHU UNITED HAMPSHIRE US REIT
CICT CAPITALAND INTEGRATED COMMERCIAL TRUST
SCGP SCG PACKAGING PCL
LREIT SP LENDLEASE GLOBAL COMMERCIAL REIT
TIDLOR NGERN TID LOR PCL
FLT FRASERS LOGISTICS & COMMERCIAL TRUST
KORE KEPPEL PACIFIC OAK US REIT
00017 NEW WORLD DEVELOPMENT CO. LTD.
DCREIT DIGITAL CORE REIT
MPACT MAPLETREE PAN ASIA COMMERCIAL TRUST
123F 123FAHRSCHULE SE
CLAS CAPITALAND ASCOTT TRUST
CLAR CAPITALAND ASCENDAS REIT
PRIME PRIME ROAD POWER PUBLIC CO LTD
Z29 029 GROUP SE
BTG BETAGRO PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
LAGENDA LAGENDA PROPERTIES BHD
PEKAT PEKAT GROUP BHD
- Damon Shen
- Jieqi Liu
China and Hong Kong Property Strategy: Weekly observation of property ...
For the mainland property market: a) new home sales in core cities improved wow but fell yoy, b) second-hand home sales in Tier 1 cities continued to rebound, and c) signs of stabilisation of listing prices seen in some Tier 2 cities. For Hong Kong’s property market: a) primary sales in June were weaker than expected, and b) SHKP’s NOVO Land is a highlight. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on both sectors. Prefer Hong Kong developers to China developers for their stronger fundamentals and attractive valua...
- Damon Shen
- Jieqi Liu
China Property: Industry fundamentals remain weak; rising policy uncer...
According to the latest NBS data, there is a marginal recovery in national property sales, with the slump in property prices accelerating in May 24. Listing prices in most core cities remain on a downward trend, with Shanghai and Shenzhen seeing signs of stabilisation. Without additional policy enhancements, destocking initiatives are expected to continue facing persistent challenges. There are still expectations for further supportive policies. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on China’s property sector.
- Damon Shen
- Jieqi Liu
China Property: Property prices drop further after 17 May 24 policy co...
The average daily new homes sales in 15 major cities for 18 May to 6 June was 28.3% higher than that of 1-17 May. Second-hand home sales in Tier 1 cities also saw a strong rebound. However, property prices fell further after the announcement of a policy combo on 17 May, as reflected by the ICE data. The overall progress of destocking is still sluggish. Effective implementation of policies will determine the pace of market stabilisation. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on China’s property sector.
- Arsit Pamaranont
- Benjaphol Suthwanish
- Ceilica Su Rui
- Damon Shen
- Jieqi Liu
- Jonathan Koh
- Keith Wee Teck Keong
- Leow Huey Chuen
- Paula Ruth
- Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
- Tham Mun Hon
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Tuesday, June 11, 2024
GREATER CHINA Economics Trade May exports grew 7.6%; imports moderated. Sector Property Property prices further drop after 17 May 24 policy combo; effective implementation of policies crucial for market stabilisation. INDONESIA Sector Telecommunications Pos...
00688 CHINA OVERSEAS LAND & INVESTMENT LIMITED
PTT PTT PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
01109 CHINA RESOURCES LAND LIMITED
IRPC IRPC PUBLIC CO. LTD.
ISAT INDOSAT
TOP THAI OIL PUBLIC CO. LTD.
SCNR SUNAC CHINA HOLDINGS LTD.
RLF LONGFOR GROUP HOLDINGS LTD.
IVL INDORAMA VENTURES PUBLIC CO. LTD.
TOWR PT SARANA MENARA NUSANTARA TBK
AJBU KEPPEL DC REIT
SCC SIAM CEMENT PUBLIC CO. LTD.
PTTEP PTT EXPLORATION & PRODUCTION PLC
PTTGC PTT GLOBAL CHEMICAL PUBLIC COMPANY LTD
PTG PTG ENERGY
SPRC STAR PETROLEUM REFINING
TLKM PT TELKOM INDONESIA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
SOP SARAWAK OIL PALMS BERHAD
KIML KIM LOONG RESOURCES BHD
BURSA BURSA MALAYSIA BHD
IOI IOI CORP BHD
KLK KUALA LUMPUR KEPONG BHD
GENP GENTING PLANTATIONS BHD
HAPL HAP SENG PLANTATIONS HOLDINGS BHD
OR PTT OIL & RETAIL BUSINESS PCL
EXCL XL AXIATA (EXCELCOMINDO)
688536 3PEAK INCORPORATED
BCOW 1895 BANCORP OF WISCONSIN INC
MTEL IJ PT DAYAMITRA TELEKOMUNIKASI
Z29 029 GROUP SE
- Jieqi Liu
- Ming San Soong
China Property: Central government announces solid policy combo to rev...
The central government announced a policy combo on 17 May. Although the Rmb300b PSL is below market expectations, the removal of the mortgage rate floor is a positive surprise that will revive buyers’ sentiment. The accelerated granting of whitelist loans will help ease the risks of undelivered homes. With sufficient implementation by local SOE and banks, we expect property prices to stabilise in 2025. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top picks: COLI and Longfor.
- Benjaphol Suthwanish
- Chong Lee Len
- Damon Shen
- Jieqi Liu
- Limartha Adhiputra
- Llelleythan Tan Tan
- Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
- Tham Mun Hon
- Wei Xiang Ku
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Monday, May 20, 2024
GREATER CHINA Economics Economic Activity April data reflects uneven progress. Sector Property The central government announced a solid policy combo to revive buyers’ sentiment, marking a positive action to mitigate the property industry’s risks. INDONESIA Results Indo Tambangraya Megah (ITMG IJ/SELL/Rp24,075/Target: Rp21,500) 1...
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