reports
- Damon Shen
- Jieqi Liu
China Property: Supportive policy remarks by Premier Li Qiang point to...
In Apr 25, major mainland cities saw mom/yoy decreases in new home sales, while second-hand transactions in Tier 1 cities continued to see positive yoy growth. The supportive remarks by Premier Li Qiang on 15 April point to further upside on property policies. The upcoming Politburo meeting will be an important window for clues of new policies. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. CR Land remains our top pick.
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Colin Lee
- Damon Shen
- Jieqi Liu
- John Cheong Ming Chern
- Johnny Yum Chung Man
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ken Lee
- Kong Ho Meng
- Ming San Soong
- Posmarito Pakpahan
- Thanawat Thangchadakorn
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Tuesday, April 22, 2025
GREATER CHINA Sector Property Supportive policy remarks by Premier Li Qiang point to further upside; upcoming Politburo meeting to be an important policy window. Results Fuyao Glass Industry Group (3606 HK/BUY/HK$49.15/Target: HK$68.00) 1Q25: Earnings up 46% yoy, in line with estimates. Maintain BUY. Target price: HK$68.00. Han’s Laser (002008 CH/BUY/Rmb24.27/Target: Rmb32.20) 1Q25: Net pro...
A0M4P7 HAN'S LASER TECHNOLOGY INDUSTRY GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
00688 CHINA OVERSEAS LAND & INVESTMENT LIMITED
01109 CHINA RESOURCES LAND LIMITED
V03 VENTURE CORPORATION LIMITED
BN2 VALUETRONICS HOLDINGS
SCNR SUNAC CHINA HOLDINGS LTD.
RLF LONGFOR GROUP HOLDINGS LTD.
AWX AEM HOLDINGS
558 UMS HOLDINGS LIMITED
3816 MISC BHD
KBANK KASIKORNBANK PUBLIC CO. LTD.
NANO NANOCO GROUP
ACES PT ACE HARDWARE INDONESIA TBK
FRKN FRENCKEN GROUP LTD
3606 FUYAO GLASS INDUSTRY GROUP CO LTD-H
01024 KUAISHOU TECHNOLOGY CLASS B
SCB SCB X PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
8AZ AZTECH GLOBAL LTD
- Damon Shen
- Jieqi Liu
China And Hong Kong Property Strategy: Sales recovery weakened in Apr ...
In Apr 25: a) major mainland cities saw mom decreases in new home sales and secondhand transactions; b) the CVI index in Hong Kong is hovering around 40, pointing to weakened sentiment; and c) mainland tourists to Hong Kong/Hong Kong residents to China grew 15.7%/25.2% yoy respectively. Amid rising trade risks, stabilising domestic demand has become more important for China. Besides, Hong Kong’s free port status needs to be monitored. Maintain sector ratings. Top picks: CR Land and SHKP.
- Damon Shen
- Jieqi Liu
China And Hong Kong Property & Hong Kong Landlords Strategy: Tariffs c...
The tariffs announced by Trump increased uncertainties over the Fed’s rate cuts, weighing on the recovery of the Hong Kong residential market and tourism. The mainland property market will be less affected, backed by China’s relatively independent monetary policy. For 2025, leading SOE developers’ earnings stabilisation will be a key highlight. Maintain sector weights with this pecking order: China property>Hong Kong developers>Hong Kong landlords. Top picks: CR Land and SHKP.
00683 KERRY PROPERTIES LIMITED
00016 SUN HUNG KAI PROPERTIES LIMITED
00823 LINK REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST
01109 CHINA RESOURCES LAND LIMITED
SCNR SUNAC CHINA HOLDINGS LTD.
RLF LONGFOR GROUP HOLDINGS LTD.
00014 HYSAN DEVELOPMENT CO. LTD.
01997 WHARF REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT CO. LTD.
00017 NEW WORLD DEVELOPMENT CO. LTD.
- Adrian Loh Tzum Yung
- Benjaphol Suthwanish
- Chong Lee Len
- Damon Shen
- Desmond Chong Chee Wai
- Jieqi Liu
- Johnny Yum
- Kampon Akaravarinchai
- Singapore Research Team
- Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
- Wei Xiang Ku
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Tuesday, April 08, 2025
GREATER CHINA Strategy China And Hong Kong Property & Hong Kong Landlord Tariffs curtail US rate cuts, thereby hindering the recovery of Hong Kong property and tourism; Maintain OVERWEIGHT on China property. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Outperform In Mar 25 Remove BBNI, BBRI, ASII, JSMR and KLBF; add BBCA, ICBP, ERAA and BUKA. MALAYSIA Update Pekat Group (PEKAT MK/BUY/RM1.08/Target: RM1.45) Good earnings visibility over 2025...
FR FIRST INDUSTRIAL REALTY TRUST INC.
AES AES CORPORATION
OU8 CENTURION
00688 CHINA OVERSEAS LAND & INVESTMENT LIMITED
00683 KERRY PROPERTIES LIMITED
00016 SUN HUNG KAI PROPERTIES LIMITED
FCT FRASERS CENTREPOINT TRUST
00823 LINK REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST
CC3 STARHUB LTD
CPF CHAROEN POKPHAND FOODS PUBLIC CO. LTD.
S63 SINGAPORE TECHNOLOGIES ENGINEERING LTD
544 CSE GLOBAL LTD.
D05 DBS GROUP HOLDINGS LTD
01109 CHINA RESOURCES LAND LIMITED
C09 CITY DEVELOPMENTS LIMITED
S68 SINGAPORE EXCHANGE LTD.
V03 VENTURE CORPORATION LIMITED
U96 SEMBCORP INDUSTRIES LTD.
F34 WILMAR INTERNATIONAL LIMITED
BN2 VALUETRONICS HOLDINGS
B8O YANGZIJIANG SHIPBUILDING (HOLDINGS) LTD.
SCNR SUNAC CHINA HOLDINGS LTD.
N2IU MAPLETREE COMMERCIAL TRUST
RLF LONGFOR GROUP HOLDINGS LTD.
AJBU KEPPEL DC REIT
TU THAI UNION GROUP PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
BUOU FRASERS LOGISTICS & COMMERCIAL TRUST
GFPT GFPT
00014 HYSAN DEVELOPMENT CO. LTD.
C52 COMFORTDELGRO CORPORATION LIMITED
C6L SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD.
BBCA PT BANK CENTRAL ASIA TBK
Z74 SINGAPORE TELECOMMUNICATIONS LIMITED
O39 OVERSEA-CHINESE BANKING CORPORATION LIMITED
PTTEP PTT EXPLORATION & PRODUCTION PLC
Y92 THAI BEVERAGE PUBLIC CO. LTD.
AP4 RIVERSTONE HOLDINGS
BN4 KEPPEL CORPORATION LIMITED
ICBP PT INDOFOOD CBP SUKSES MAKMUR TBK
ERAA ERAJAYA SWASEMBADA
Q5T FAR EAST HOSPITALITY TRUST
MIKA MITRA KELUARGA KARYASEHAT
01997 WHARF REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT CO. LTD.
SE SEA ADS
SATS SP SATS LTD.
D01 DAIRY FARM INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS LIMITED
G13 GENTING SINGAPORE LIMITED
CDREIT CDL HOSPITALITY TRUSTS
SUN SUNTECH SA
KREIT KEPPEL REIT
MLT MAPLETREE LOGISTICS TRUST
NETLINK NETLINK NBN TRUST
SIE SIA ENGINEERING CO LTD
BAL BUMITAMA AGRI LTD
PREIT PARKWAYLIFE REAL ESTATE
SPOST SINGAPORE POST LTD
MINT MAPLETREE INDUSTRIAL TRUST
FHT FRASERS HOSPITALITY TRUST
PMAH PRESS METAL ALUMINIUM HOLDIN
SSG SHENG SIONG GROUP LTD
RFMD RAFFLES MEDICAL GROUP LTD
TXG 10X GENOMICS INC CLASS A
TGIF 1933 INDUSTRIES
RSTON RIVERSTONE HOLDINGS LTD
FRKN FRENCKEN GROUP LTD
MPM MARCO POLO MARINE LTD
CICT CAPITALAND INTEGRATED COMMERCIAL TRUST
LREIT SP LENDLEASE GLOBAL COMMERCIAL REIT
HMN ASCOTT RESIDENCE TRUST
00017 NEW WORLD DEVELOPMENT CO. LTD.
SE US SEA LIMITED
BUKA BUKALAPAK.COM PT TBK
CVL CIVMEC
9CI CAPITALAND INVESTMENT LTD
EXCL XL AXIATA TBK PT
123F 123FAHRSCHULE SE
BCOW 1895 BANCORP OF WISCONSIN INC
CLAR CAPITALAND ASCENDAS REIT
ITC I-TAIL CORPORATION PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
DCRU DIGITAL CORE REIT MANAGEMENT PTE. LTD.
STM SEATRIUM LTD
EPIC 1CM INC
Z29 029 GROUP SE
BTG BETAGRO PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
PEKAT PEKAT GROUP BHD
PAN SP PAN-UNITED CORPORATION (PAN SP)
- Damon Shen
- Jieqi Liu
China Overseas Land & Investment (688 HK): 2024: Results slightly belo...
For 2024, COLI’s core net profit declined 33.5% yoy to Rmb15.7b, 5.8% below our estimate. DPS decreased 25% yoy to HK$0.60, implying a higher payout ratio of 38.2%. For 2025, management targets stabilisation of contracted sales and core earnings. Fine-tuning our earnings forecast, we expect core net profit to decline mildly by 4% in 2025 and recover in 2026. Maintain BUY. Target price: HK$16.70.
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Claire Wang Kelai
- Damon Shen
- Ejann Hiew
- Greater China Research Team
- Guan An Tan
- Jieqi Liu
- Ken Lee
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
- Shirley Wang Xueyi
- Stella Guo Yuting
- Tham Mun Hon
- Ziv Ang Sze Champ
Greater China Daily: Tuesday, April 1, 2025
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Economics PMI Manufacturing PMI strengthened further to 50.5 (+0.3pt mom) while non-manufacturing PMI improved to 50.8 (+0.4pt mom) as construction activity improved to 53.4 (+0.7pt mom), alongside a moderate recovery in services at 50.3 (+0.3pt mom). Small-sized enterprises saw a notable improvement to 49.6 (+3.3pt mom) despite being in the contractionary zone, pointing to a broadening of the recovery. Sector Aviation The three airlines’ 2024 results were in line but at the h...
00144 CHINA MERCHANTS PORT HOLDINGS CO. LTD.
6WX CHINA LONGYUAN POWER GROUP CORP. LTD. CLASS H
601888 CHINA TOURISM GROUP DUTY FREE CORPORATION LIMITED CLASS A
1772 GANFENG LITHIUM CO. LTD. CLASS H
6186 CHINA FEIHE LTD
6049 POLY PROPERTY SERVICES CO LTD
02208 XINJIANG GOLDWIND SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY CO. LTD. CLASS H
09922 JIUMAOJIU INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS LTD.
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Claire Wang Kelai
- Damon Shen
- Ejann Hiew
- Guan An Tan
- Jieqi Liu
- Jonathan Koh
- Ken Lee
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
- Shirley Wang Xueyi
- Stella Guo Yuting
- Thanawat Thangchadakorn
- Ziv Ang Sze Champ
Regional Morning Notes - Tuesday, April 1, 2025
GREATER CHINA Sector Aviation: Airlines: Expecting a turnaround in 2025 on better supply-demand balance. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Results China Feihe (6186 HK/BUY/HK$5.87/Target: HK$6.80): 2024: Results miss; targets accelerated revenue growth but slight gross margin improvement in 2025. China Longyuan Power (916 HK/HOLD/HK$6.23/Target: HK$6.70): 2024: In line; poor wind resources weigh on power generation despite robust new installation. China Overseas Land & Investment (688 HK/BUY/HK$13.90/Target...
- Damon Shen
- Jieqi Liu
China Property: Faster-than-expected destocking progress; higher 2025 ...
According to the latest NBS data, national sales were stronger than expected but new starts remained sluggish in 2M25, leading to a faster destocking pace. Due to improved supply-demand dynamics and enhanced destocking policies, we raise our forecast for national residential GFA sold growth in 2025 to -2.5% yoy under a neutral scenario. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. CR Land and Longfor remain our top picks.
- Damon Shen
- Jieqi Liu
China Property: Shenzhen and Guangzhou seeing notable improvement in d...
We noticed an improvement in demand-supply dynamics in Tier 1 cities, especially in Shenzhen and Guangzhou, where inventory months have decreased by 3.4 and 13.4 months yoy to 15/15 months respectively. 2025 NPC and CPPCC meetings have set a positive policy tone, with the greater autonomy of destocking being a key highlight. We expect the market to further stabilise in March. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. CR Land remains our top pick. Add Longfor to our POE top picks for improved sentiment.
- Adrian Loh Tzum Yung
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Benjaphol Suthwanish
- Damon Shen
- Jack Goh Tooan Orng
- Jieqi Liu
- Ken Lee
- Paula Ruth
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Wednesday, March 12, 2025
GREATER CHINA Sector Property Shenzhen and Guangzhou seeing notable improvement in demand-supply dynamics. Results ECARX Holdings Inc (ECX US/BUY/US$2.67/Target: US$3.40) 4Q24: Net loss narrows due to revenue growth. Maintain BUY. Target price: US$3.40. INDONESIA Update XL Axiata (EXCL IJ/BUY/Rp2,260/Target: Rp3,300) XLSmart estimates potential cost synergies of US$300-...
00688 CHINA OVERSEAS LAND & INVESTMENT LIMITED
5168 HARTALEGA HOLDINGS BHD.
01109 CHINA RESOURCES LAND LIMITED
SCNR SUNAC CHINA HOLDINGS LTD.
RLF LONGFOR GROUP HOLDINGS LTD.
7113 TOP GLOVE CORPORATION BHD.
7153 KOSSAN RUBBER INDUSTRIES BHD.
D01 DAIRY FARM INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS LIMITED
EXCL XL AXIATA TBK PT
ECX ECARX HOLDINGS INC
- Damon Shen
- Jieqi Liu
China And Hong Kong Property: Preview of property policies from two se...
Property sales in mainland China saw yoy growth in Feb 25. Multiple real estate indicators showed signs of market stabilisation. In Mar 25, the performance of real estate stocks may be volatile. We continue to keep an eye on policy catalysts. In Hong Kong, both the CCL index and CVI index weakened in early-Feb 25, but recent primary sales achieved high sell-through rates. We expect an improvement in Hong Kong’s primary market after the budget speech. Maintain sector ratings. Top picks: CR Land a...
- Damon Shen
- Jieqi Liu
China Property: Channel checks and observations of Shenzhen and Shangh...
After the Chinese New Year period, we visited eight projects in Shenzhen and Shanghai in mid-Feb 24 to check the market performance. We saw a gradual recovery in Shenzhen and Shanghai property transactions in Feb 25, and observed the stabilisation of sentiment among homebuyers and developers. If stronger fiscal policies are introduced during the Two Sessions in Mar 25, we expect to see further recovery and decent yoy growth in property sales. Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
- Anas Fitri Bin Ahmad
- Benjaphol Suthwanish
- Chong Lee Len
- Damon Shen
- Heidi Mo Jinghui
- Jieqi Liu
- John Cheong Ming Chern
- Johnny Yum
- Kampon Akaravarinchai
- Kitpon Praipaisarnkit
- Llelleythan Tan Tan
- Philip Wong
- Stevanus Juanda
- Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
- Wei Xiang Ku
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Tuesday, February 25, 2025
GREATER CHINA Sector Property Channel checks and observations of Shenzhen and Shanghai primary markets. INDONESIA Strategy Danantara – Who Could Benefit Beneficiaries: PGEO, ANTM, TINS, BMRI, BBNI, BBRI and TLKM. We have an end-25 target of 7,500 for the JCI. MALAYSIA Results 99 Speed Mart Retail (99SMART MK/BUY/RM2.14/Target: RM2.60) 4Q24: Delivers on earnings...
00688 CHINA OVERSEAS LAND & INVESTMENT LIMITED
CC3 STARHUB LTD
ANTM PT ANEKA TAMBANG TBK
01109 CHINA RESOURCES LAND LIMITED
BBRI PT BANK RAKYAT INDONESIA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
TOP THAI OIL PUBLIC CO. LTD.
4197 SIME DARBY BHD.
SCNR SUNAC CHINA HOLDINGS LTD.
RLF LONGFOR GROUP HOLDINGS LTD.
BMRI PT BANK MANDIRI (PERSERO) TBK
TLKM PT TELKOM INDONESIA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
KCE KCE ELECTRONICS PUBLIC CO. LTD.
RFMD RAFFLES MEDICAL GROUP LTD
TGIF 1933 INDUSTRIES
RSTON RIVERSTONE HOLDINGS LTD
CTOS CTOS DIGITAL BHD
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
PGEO PERTAMINA GEOTHERMAL ENERGY
99SMART 99 SPEED MART RETAIL HOLDINGS BHD
- Damon Shen
- Jieqi Liu
China and Hong Kong Property Strategy: Recent data of home sales and l...
Property sales in both mainland China and Hong Kong recovered wow in the third week of Feb 25. With a continued decline in transition volume and improvement of sentiment in a few cities, we expect the land market to continue its structural divergence in 2025. In Hong Kong, the CCL index remained stable, but we expect high inventory to continue weighing on property prices. We stay cautious on NWD with a HOLD rating despite the
- Damon Shen
- Jieqi Liu
China Property: Will local government special bonds be a lifeline for ...
Bloomberg reported a rumour that the Chinese government is considering allocating a special bond quota of Rmb20b for the purchase of unsold units and idle lands from Vanke. With the recent acceleration in idle land repurchase and considering Vanke’s resources in Guangdong, we think the existing policy framework has set up the mechanism for local governments to fund major SOEs. However, uncertainty exists in practice. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. Policy implementation will be a key catalyst.
- Benjaphol Suthwanish
- Benyamin Mikael
- Colin Lee
- Damon Shen
- Heidi Mo Jinghui
- Jack Lai Yuan Khai
- Jieqi Liu
- Jo Yee Ng
- John Cheong Ming Chern
- Johnny Yum Chung Man
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ming San Soong
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Thursday, February 13, 2025
GREATER CHINA Sector Internet Potential implications of de minimis tax exemption. Property Will local government special bonds be a lifeline for Vanke? Update Sunny Optical (2382 HK/BUY/HK$88.60/Target: HK$100.00) Sunny Optical issues profit alert for 2024 – expect a solid beat on earnings expectati...
ANTM PT ANEKA TAMBANG TBK
01109 CHINA RESOURCES LAND LIMITED
SXC SUNNY OPTICAL TECHNOLOGY (GROUP) CO. LTD.
SCNR SUNAC CHINA HOLDINGS LTD.
RLF LONGFOR GROUP HOLDINGS LTD.
PDD PINDUODUO INC. SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
HEIM HEINEKEN MALAYSIA BHD
CAB CARLSBERG BREWERY MALAYSIA B
ECW ECO WORLD DEVELOPMENT GROUP
09988 ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING LTD.
OR PTT OIL AND RETAIL BUSINESS PUBLIC CO LIMITED
OTEK OILTEK INTERNATIONAL (OTEK SP)
- Damon Shen
- Jieqi Liu
China Property: Policy implementation and development remain the key f...
Property sales in major mainland cities in the first week of Feb 25 were still weak as both transactions and publication of data were impacted by the CNY holiday. A positive development in policy implementation was that Zhuhai spent Rmb6.6b to buy back idle lands from SOEs. Another market highlight is the rumour about Shenzhen removing HPRs, which we think is not impossible. Policy development remains a key focus and catalyst. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. Top pick is CR Land.
- Arsit Pamaranont
- Damon Shen
- Jieqi Liu
- Johnny Yum
- Jonathan Koh
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Kasemsun Koonnara
- Ming San Soong
- Stevanus Juanda
- Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Tuesday, February 11, 2025
GREATER CHINA Sector Internet Growth potential and AI development trends following emergence of DeepSeek. Property Policy implementation and development remain the key focus and catalyst. INDONESIA Strategy Catching A Falling Knife Or Opportunity To Buy? We Say Buy Our picks are BBCA, BBTN, CMRY, ICBP, KLBF, CTRA, AMRT, PGEO, TL...
ORI ORIGIN PROPERTY
00688 CHINA OVERSEAS LAND & INVESTMENT LIMITED
D05 DBS GROUP HOLDINGS LTD
01109 CHINA RESOURCES LAND LIMITED
CTRA CIPUTRA DEVELOPMENT
AMATA AMATA CORP
IRPC IRPC PUBLIC CO. LTD.
ISAT INDOSAT
QH QUALITY HOUSES
3K1 KINGSOFT CORP. LTD.
SCNR SUNAC CHINA HOLDINGS LTD.
RLF LONGFOR GROUP HOLDINGS LTD.
KLBF PT KALBE FARMA TBK
AMRT SUMBER ALFARIA TRIJAYA TBK PT
SPALI SUPALAI PCL
ICBP PT INDOFOOD CBP SUKSES MAKMUR TBK
AP AP THAILAND
00700 TENCENT HOLDINGS LTD.
LPN LPN DEVELOPMENT PCL
PSH PRUKSA HOLDING PCL
09988 ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING LTD.
09888 BAIDU INC
BBTN BANK TABUNGAN NEGARA PERSERO TBK PT
CMRY PT CISARUA MOUNTAIN DAIRY TBK
PGEO PERTAMINA GEOTHERMAL ENERGY
Z29 029 GROUP SE
- Damon Shen
- Jieqi Liu
China And Hong Kong Property Strategy: Observations of 2025 Chinese Ne...
Property sales in both mainland China and Hong Kong weakened during 2025’s CNY. Another key development around CNY was the change in Vanke’s top management, which we think cannot eliminate the risks associated with Vanke due to the financial constraint of Shenzhen Metro. Hong Kong saw a low growth in tourist arrivals during CNY. We think further policy support is needed and possible. Maintain our respective sector ratings. Top picks are CR Land, SHKP and LINK REIT.
00016 SUN HUNG KAI PROPERTIES LIMITED
00823 LINK REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST
01109 CHINA RESOURCES LAND LIMITED
SCNR SUNAC CHINA HOLDINGS LTD.
RLF LONGFOR GROUP HOLDINGS LTD.
00014 HYSAN DEVELOPMENT CO. LTD.
01997 WHARF REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT CO. LTD.
00017 NEW WORLD DEVELOPMENT CO. LTD.
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